Reactionary Rally

Stock Indexes were projected to peak in Nov ’21 & early-Jan ’22 and enter 6 – 9 month declines after creating 1 – 2 year tops.  They adhered closely to that outlook but also provided a couple key buying opportunities in 3Q & 4Q ’23 – the first of which was an intermediate buy signal that was only projected to trigger a multi-week advance.  That coincided with the convergence of weekly & daily cycles.

Though shorter term, a lot can be learned from it!

A, B, Cs

In many cases, the preferred position and timing for entering long positions is after an initial rally a pullback.  (The inverse is true for entering short positions after an initial sell-off and rebound.)

Those first two waves – the initial rally and initial pullback – represent the ‘A’ and ‘B’ waves of a developing ‘A-B-C’ correction (‘correction’ can be in either direction depending on the prevailing trend that is being corrected) OR the ‘1’ & ‘2’ waves of a developing ‘1-2-3-4-5’ impulse wave.

For the purposes of this discussion, the distinction does not matter since both a ‘C’ wave and a ‘3’ wave have similar characteristics… largely due to the fact they are both forms of ‘3rd’ waves.

Such was the case leading into daily cycle lows on July 13/14, 2022 – when a secondary (higher) low was projected… the culmination of an initial pullback (after an initial rally) that was signaling it should bottom above the level of the preceding June 2022 bottom.

The Setup, Signal & Sequence

Reinforcing those cycle lows (July 13/14, 2022), a myriad of other indicators – both timing and price indicators – were corroborating and helping to pinpoint the ideal time & price levels for entering new long positions in anticipation of a multi-week rally.  They helped to pinpoint entry points, risk points, and subsequent validation points.

The following excerpts describe that setupsignal… and sequence:

 

07/13/22 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – Stock Indices are slowly confirming signs of a bottom in mid-June (June 13 – 21 was ideal cyclic time for a low – 2/3 of way between ~8-month cycle peak in early-Jan ’22 and next phase of ~8-month cycle) after several indexes spiked to 6 – 12 month downside targets then. 

The Nasdaq-100 concurred, fulfilling a 14 – 15 week high-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression and a related 28 – 29-week low-low-high-(low) Cycle Sequence with the mid-June low.  It also completed successive 11-week declines at the time.  This could be the start of a multi-month rally into monthly cycle highs in Sept/Oct ’22 – when the next decisive peak is forecast.

On a near-term basis, stock indexes have entered a potentially bullish 1 – 2 week period when the inversely-correlated daily 21 MARCs are plunging.  That should become a positive factor tomorrow, when the value of most 21 MARCs will drop below today’s closing price.  That coincides with the pair of daily Cycle Progressions that project a secondary (higher) low on July 13/14.

It would take the new intra-month trends turning up (with daily closes above 31,225/DJIA, 3875/ESU & 11,975/NQU) and the daily trends turning up (with daily closes above 31,885/DJIA, 3948/ESU & 12,262/NQU) to signal a 1 – 2 month bottom.

1 – 4 week & 1 – 2 month traders can look to enter long positions in stock indexes now, risking (exiting on) a daily close below the July 1/5 lows.  In the case of the S+P 500 (e-mini futures), these longs can be entered… down to 3745/ESU.”  [TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!]

July 13, 2022, Weekly Re-Lay Alert

07/15/22 INSIIDE Track Stock Index Update – Stock Indices are steadily confirming signs of a bottom in mid-June (June 13 – 21 was ideal cyclic time for a low – 2/3 of way between ~8-month cycle peak in early-Jan ’22 and next phase of ~8-month cycle) after several indexes spiked to 6 – 12 month downside targets then. 

At the time, the NQ-100 fulfilling weekly Cycle Progressions and Sequences while completing successive 11-week declines.  (The Nasdaq-100 also fulfilled a corresponding daily Cycle Progression at its June 16 low and again at its July 14 secondary low.)… In the coming weeks, an initial rally into early-Aug is expected.

Stock Indexes were projected to enter a bullish 1 – 2 week period after mid-week (see 7/09/22 Weekly Re-Lay), in line with daily 21 MARC and 21 MAC setups and action.  A corroborating ~18 trading-day high (3/03) – high (3/28) – low (4/26) – low (5/20) – low (6/16) – low (July 13/14) concurred, most notable in the NQ-100, and helped trigger a pair of Weekly Re-Lay buy signals for the July 14 dip (see 7/13/22 Weekly Re-Lay Alert).

That was forecast to spur a larger advance in the second half of July… that could easily morph into the largest advance of 2022…

Stock indices have initially validated that overall outlook (and the mid-June lows), spiking back down to retest their early-July lows – on July 14 – without turning the intra-month trends down.  That reinforced their initial intra-month uptrends and is expected to spur a new rally above the early-June highs…”

July 15, 2022, INSIIDE Track Intra-month Update

07/16/22 Weekly Re-Lay – Stock indices are slowly validating signs of a mid-June bottom after spiking to new lows and 6 – 12 month downside targets at that time.  They were expected to spike to secondary (higher) lows on July 13/14 and then enter what could be the next phase of a multi-month rally… They fulfilled that with a July 14 low, triggering a pair of buy signals…

Stock Indices are steadily confirming signs of a bottom in mid-June (June 13 – 21 was ideal cyclic time for a low – 2/3 of way between ~8-month cycle peak in early-Jan ’22 and next phase of ~8-month cycle) after several indexes reached and held 6 – 12 month downside targets then. 

At the time, the NQ-100 fulfilled weekly Cycle Progressions and Sequences while completing successive 11-week declines.  That could/should be the start of a multi-month rally into monthly cycle highs in Sept/Oct ’22 – when a critical peak is likely. 

An initial rally into early-Aug is expected.

Stock Indexes were projected to enter a bullish 1 – 2 week period after mid-week, in line with daily 21 MARC and 21 MAC action.  A corroborating ~18 trading-day high (3/03) – high (3/28) – low (4/26) – low (5/20) – low (6/16) – low (July 13/14) concurred, most notable in the NQ-100, and helped trigger a pair of buy signals for the July 14 spike low.

That was forecast to spur a larger advance in the second half of July… that could easily morph into the largest advance of 2022…

Stock indices have initially validated that, spiking back down to retest their early-July lows – on July 14 – without turning the intra-month trends down.  That is expected to spur a near-term rally above the early-June highs and ideally to [reserved for subscribers] in the next 1 – 2 months (or sooner).

1 – 4 week & 1 – 2 month traders could have entered long positions in stock indexes during the opening hours of trading on July 14 as the indexes retested their early-July lows.  The risk on these trades (the point to exit) was/is a daily close below the July 1/5 lows – which would turn the intra-month trends down and negate this buy signal. 

Futures traders could have entered related futures with the same approach (entering longs down to the July 1/5 lows, including 3745/ESU).”  [TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!]

July 16, 2022, Weekly Re-Lay

07/20/22 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – Stock Indices are steadily confirming expectations for a multi-month bottom in mid-June (June 13 – 21 was ideal cyclic time for a low – 2/3 of way between ~8-month cycle peak in early-Jan ’22 and next phase of ~8-month cycle in Sept ‘22) after several indexes spiked to 6 – 12 month downside targets at that time and fulfilled almost all of the downside potential – in price and time – for the first 7 – 9 months of 2022. 

From there, stock indices were/are expected to experience their largest rallies of 2022.

In mid-June ‘22, the NQ-100 fulfilled weekly Cycle Progressions and Sequences while completing successive 11-week declines.  (The Nasdaq-100 also fulfilled a corresponding daily Cycle Progression at its June 16 low and again at its July 13/14 secondary low… projecting future focus to Aug. 9 – 11.).. 

The June 30 ’22 monthly closes provided a powerful corroborating signal with the monthly trends – signaling that a multi-month bottom was taking hold and a 1 – 3 month reactive rally was imminent… 

Stock Indexes are fulfilling the outlook for a multi-month bottom on June 13 – 21 followed by a strong 1 – 3 month reactive rally… During the first week of July, they corroborated this and set the stage for a secondary low around mid-July.  They were projected to enter a bullish 1 – 2 week period after July 13/14 (see 7/09/22 Weekly Re-Lay), in line with daily 21 MARC and 21 MAC setups and action as well as the prevailing intra-month trends. 

A corroborating ~18 trading-day high (3/03) – high (3/28) – low (4/26) – low (5/20) – low (6/16) – low (July 13/14) concurred, most notable in the NQ-100, and helped trigger a pair of Weekly Re-Lay buy signals for the July 14 dip (see 7/13/22 Weekly Re-Lay Alert).

That was forecast to spur a larger advance in the second half of July… that could/should easily morph into the largest advance of 2022. 

In order to fulfill that, the DJIA would need to exceed ~32,800, the S+P exceed 4180/ESU and the Nasdaq 100 exceed 13,250 – 13,400/NQU (cash/futures). The interesting thing about all three is that they closely coincide with the early-June highs (DJIA & S+P 500) and early-May high (NQ-100).

To start the current week, stock indexes re-entered their intra-month uptrends and confirmed the latest phase of this developing advance. 

Initially, this recent action is expected to spur a new rally above the early-June highs…

 1 – 4 week & 1 – 2 month traders could have entered long positions in stock indexes during the opening hours of trading on July 14 as the indexes retested their early-July lows.  Futures traders could have entered related futures with the same approach (entering longs down to the July 1/5 lows, including 3745/ESU & 11,381/NQU). Move trailing stops and now risk [reserved for subscribers]” [TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!]

July 20, 2022, Weekly Re-Lay Alert

07/23/22 Weekly Re-Lay – Stock Indices are confirming expectations for a multi-month bottom on June 13 – 21 – when several indexes spiked to 6 – 12 month downside targets and fulfilled almost all of the downside potential – in price and time – for the first 7 – 9 months of 2022. 

In mid-June ‘22, the NQ-100 fulfilled weekly Cycle Progressions and Sequences while completing successive 11-week declines.  It also fulfilled a reinforcing daily Cycle Progression at its June 16 low and again at its July 13/14 secondary low (projecting future focus to Aug. 9 – 11.)

The June 30 ’22 monthly closes concurred – signaling that a multi-month bottom was taking hold and a 1 – 3 month reactive rally was imminent.  From there, stock indices were/are expected to experience their largest rallies of 2022…

Stock Indexes were projected to enter a bullish 1 – 2 week period on July 14, based on daily 21 MAC/ MARC structure, intra-month trend set-up, and corroborating daily cycle lows.  On the July 13 close, they triggered a pair of buy signals for the following trading session, entered on July 14. 

Since then, they have rallied as the first phase of this expected advance…

1 – 4 week & 1 – 2 month traders could have entered long positions in stock indexes during the first half of July 14 (based on July 13 published strategy) as the indexes retested their early-July lows.  Futures traders could have entered indexes with the same approach (entering longs down to July 1/5 lows – 3745/ESU & 11,381/NQU).”    [TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!]

July 23, 2022, Weekly Re-Lay

07/27/22 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – Stock Indices are confirming analysis for a multi-month bottom on June 13 – 21 – when several indexes spiked to 6 – 12 month downside targets and fulfilled almost all of the downside potential (price AND time) for the first 7 – 9 months of 2022. 

In mid-June ‘22, the NQ-100 completed successive 11-week declines, fulfilling weekly Cycle Progressions & Sequences and signaling a multi-month bottom.  It also fulfilled daily Cycle Progressions at its June 16 low and again at its July 13/14 secondary low…

The June 30 ’22 monthly closes concurred – signaling that a multi-month bottom was taking hold and a 1 – 3 month reactive rally was imminent.  From there, stock indices were/are expected to experience their largest rallies of 2022.

In order to fulfill that, the DJIA would need to exceed ~32,800, the S+P exceed 4180/ESU and the Nasdaq 100 exceed 13,250 – 13,400/NQU (cash/futures)… coinciding with early-June highs (DJIA & S+P 500) and the early-May high (NQ-100)…

On a shorter-term basis, stock Indexes were projected to enter a bullish multi-week period on July 14, based on daily 21 MAC/MARC structure, intra-month trend set-up, and corroborating daily cycle lows.  On the July 13 close, they triggered a pair of buy signals (1 – 4 week and 1 – 2 month) for the following trading session, entered on July 14. 

Since then, they have rallied.  On a very short-term basis, that was projected to spur an initial rally into July 22 before a very brief pullback into July 26/27.  Since mid-April, the DJIA has experienced four 1 – 2 week surges.  Each one lasted 6 trading days – portending a short-term high for July 22

Stocks fulfilled this and corrected but were expected to resume their advances after a 1 – 2 day pullback.  As a result, focus should remain on the upside potential into early-Aug. – when an intermediate high is more likely.

1 – 4 week & 1 – 2 month traders could have entered long positions in stock indexes during the first half of July 14 (based on July 13 published strategy) as the indexes retested their early-July lows.  Futures traders could have entered indexes with the same approach (entering longs down to July 1/5 lows – 3745/ESU & 11,381/NQU).”   [TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!]

July 27, 2022, Weekly Re-Lay Alert

07/30/22 Weekly Re-Lay – Stock Indices are further confirming cycles that bottomed on June 13 – 21 – at the same time several indexes spiked to 6 – 12 month downside targets and fulfilled almost all of the downside potential (price AND time) for the first 7 – 9 months of 2022. 

In the case of the DJIA & NQ-100, they bottomed precisely at 1 – 2 year support levels surrounding 29,600/DJIA & 11,000/NQ.  The June 30 ’22 monthly closes reinforced that analysis, signaling that a multi-month bottom was taking hold and a 1 – 3 month reactive rally was imminent. 

Since that time, stock indices were/are expected to experience their largest rallies of 2022 – exceeding ~32,800/DJIA, 4180/ESU and 13,400/NQU.  Those levels overlap early-June highs (DJIA & S+P 500) and the early-May high (NQ-100).  Reinforcing that potential, recent action has projected likely tests of 33,400/ DJIA, 4250/ESU & 13,400/NQU for early-Aug…

1 – 4 week & 1 – 2 month traders could have entered long positions in stock indexes during the July 14 sell-off as the indexes retested their early-July lows.  Futures traders could have entered indexes with the same approach (entering longs down to their July 1/5 lows, like 3745/ESU).

Risk (exit on) a daily close below the July 28 lows.  1 – 4 week traders can exit all of these positions at 33,400/DJIA, 4250/ESU, 2620/IDX & 1970/QRU.  1 – 2 month traders can exit 1/2 at same levels.”   [TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!]

July 30, 2022, Weekly Re-Lay

07/29/22 INSIIDE Track – Stock Indices are steadily fulfilling and corroborating the outlook for 2022/2023.  They fulfilled projections for a pair of divergent peaks in early-Nov ’21 and early-Jan ’22 followed by a multi-month sell-off…  

And just to reiterate – it is NOT just these cycles that are powerfully validating this outlook.  The cycles only provide a backdrop and a general ‘roadmap’ for the timing of important highs and lows.  From there, it is up to price action to ‘take the wheel’.

In June ‘22, stocks dropped right to decisive levels of 6 – 12 month support and held.  The DJIA attacked (and held) its most important level of resistance turned into support – the level of the Feb ’20 and Aug ’20 peaks at 29,200 – 29,600/DJIA.  That is also a form of range-trading support.

At the same time, the stronger S+P 500 neared similar support at 3560 – 3610/SPX (2022 HLS, 2022 plunge = Feb/Mar ’20 plunge, Aug ’20 high) and held. Most telling, however, were tech stocks…

The NQ-100 reached a myriad of downside targets and support at 10,700 – 11,100 – where a multi-month bottom was most likely (2022 HLS, multi-year range-trading support, 50% retracement of Dec ’18 – Nov ’21 advance, test of the Sept/Oct ’20 lows – a type of 4th wave of lesser degree)…   

At the same time (June 13 – 21), the NQ-100 was fulfilling a 14 – 15 week high-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression and a related 28 – 29-week low-low-high-(low) Cycle Sequence in mid-June.  Those are two nearly-ubiquitous cycles in the Nasdaq – that were discussed and detailed in 2000 – 2002 and again in 2007 – 2009, as they helped pinpoint the ’08/‘09 low.

The NQ-100 also completed successive 11-week declines – the ‘3’ and ‘5’ waves of what is likely a larger-magnitude ‘A-B-C’ decline (Nov ’21 – June ’22 = ‘A’ wave).  The action of the next week should help clarify what to expect from a potential rally.

On a broader basis, little has changed from what has been stressed the past 6 – 12 months…

3 – 6 month & 6 – 12 month (and even 1 – 2 year) traders and investors should have been exiting long positions in early-Sept ‘21… The Weekly Re-Laydetailed 1 – 4 week and 1 – 2 month buy signals that were triggered on the July 13 close and entered on the July 14 sell-off.”    [TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!]

July 29, 2022, INSIIDE Track

08/03/22 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – “All of this action further confirms cycles that bottomed on June 13 – 21 – at the same time several indexes spiked to 6 – 12 month downside targets and fulfilled almost all of the downside potential (price AND time) for the first 7 – 9 months of 2022. 

In the case of the DJIA & NQ-100, they bottomed precisely at 1 – 2 year support levels near 29,600/DJIA & 11,000/NQ.  The Nasdaq-100 (and most other indexes) fulfilled weekly cycles and downside wave timing targets with their mid-June lows. 

The June 30 ’22 monthly closes reinforced that analysis, signaling that a multi-month bottom was taking hold and a 1 – 3 month reactive rally was imminent.  Since that time, stock indices were/are expected to experience their largest rallies of 2022 – exceeding ~32,800/DJIA, 4180/ESU and 13,400/NQU… 

Reinforcing these upside targets in the three primary indexes, recent action has projected likely tests of 33,400/DJIA, 4250/ESU & 13,400/NQU for early-Aug.

In the case of the NQ-100, it is building a lot of synergy – of both upside targets and intermediate resistance zones – around that 13,400/NQU level.  Weekly resistance for the current week came into play at 13,326 – 13,441/NQU and is being corroborated by the Intra-week PLLR as well as the weekly 21 High AMAC.  And now, daily extremes are reinforcing those targets…

The latest three daily LHRs began to group together (13,343 – 13,575/NQU) and steadily hone that target.  Tomorrow’s HHR is a little higher – at 13,523/NQU(the LHR is at 13,806/NQU).

The S+P 500 has had similar target reinforcement and just corroborated that by rallying to ~4165/ESU today (it peaked at 4170/ESU) and creating another LHR for tomorrow – at 4260/ESU.  This comes after it created an Intra-Week PLLR – with the Aug 2 low at 4080 – at 4247/ESU, right where weekly resistance exists.  This index could be the key to an impending top.

The DJIA’s daily LHR is at 33,437/DJIA – right where its weekly resistance begins…

1 – 4 week & 1 – 2 month traders could have entered long positions in stock indexes during the July 14 sell-off as the indexes retested their early-July lows.  Futures traders could have entered indexes with the same approach (entering longs down to their July 1/5 lows, like 3745/ESU).

Risk (exit on) a daily close below the Aug 2 lows.  1 – 4 week traders can exit all of these positions at 33,400/DJIA, 4245/ESU, 2620/IDX & 1970/QRU.  1 – 2 month traders can exit 1/2 of longs at the same levels.”   [TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!]  — August 3, 2022 Weekly Re-Lay Alert

August 3, 2022, Weekly Re-Lay Alert

08/06/22 Weekly Re-Lay – “Stock indices have stalled in their recent runup, just as cycles were portending a brief top and pullback… In the ideal cyclic scenario, at least some of the key stock indexes will spike below this past week’s lows and then reverse higher.  The stronger ones (NQ-100, ??) should bottom at or above their Aug 1 – 5 lows and then resume their rallies.

Stock Indexes initially fulfilled intermediate projections for a multi-week advance – based on daily 21 MAC/MARC structure, intra-month trend set-up, and corroborating daily cycle lows – from July 14 into Aug 1 – 5.  However, that initial peak is not expected to hold for too long. 

Monday’s action should provide some short-term clarification but the more likely scenario appears to be that stock indexes could pull back on Aug 8 and possibly Aug 9, before resuming their advances. 

If they are to remain bullish on a short-term basis, they should not turn their intra-month trends down and would ideally remain above their rising daily 21 High MACs during an impending pullback. 

The greatest (and tightest) synergy of daily support levels appears in the NQ-100 and could see it pulling back to 12,943 – 12,986 on Aug 8 and then quickly reversing back up.  That would be the most bullish case for the next 1 – 2 weeks and could ultimately reinforce its intra-month uptrend.

1 – 4 week & 1 – 2 month traders (futures and cash) could have entered long positions in stock indexes during the July 14 sell-off as the indexes retested their early-July lows.”  [TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!]

August 6, 2022, Weekly Re-Lay

08/10/22 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – Stock Indices continue to rally, confirming mid-June bottoms… The Nasdaq-100 pulled back to 12,963/NQU and bottomed on Aug 9 – fulfilling the ideal timing and price for an early-week pullback.  That provided another short-term opportunity for 3 – 5 day traders with stocks projected to enter another rally into (at least) mid-month. 

A rally into Aug 12 – 16 would fulfill the timing projection from the intra-month uptrends. It would also perpetuate a ~1-month/~30-day cycle.  Over the past several months, many indexes have set multi-week lows on the 12 – 16th of the month – coming on March 14/15, April 12, May 12, June 16 & July 14. 

This cycle is overdue for an inversion, so a high on Aug 12 – 16 would fulfill a related ~1-month low-low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progression…

1 – 4 week & 1 – 2 month traders (futures and cash) could have entered long positions in stock indexes during the July 14 sell-off as the indexes retested their early-July lows.

Risk (exit on) a daily close below the Aug 9 lows.  1 – 4 week traders can exit 1/2 of these positions at 33,400/DJIA, 4260/ESU, 2620/IDX & 1970/QRU and 1/2 at 34,200/DJIA…  1 – 2 month traders can do the same.”  [TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!]

August 10, 2022, Weekly Re-Lay Alert

08/13/22 Weekly Re-Lay – “Stock indices continue to rally and are likely to spike higher in the coming week – all part of the projected advances from mid-June ’22 (when multi-week/multi-month cycles bottomed) and from mid-July – when multiple buy signals were triggered… Futures traders could have exited 1/2 of long positions in e-mini SP futures w/avg. gains of ~$24,000/contract and be preparing to exit the other 1/2… [TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!]

Stock Indices continue to move in lockstep with short-term cycles, trend signals, and corresponding support and resistance.  They were projected to pull back on Aug 8 & 9 and then reverse higher, resuming their advances and next rallying into mid-Aug. 

The NQ-100 was forecast to pull back to 12,943 – 12,986/NQU and then surge again. 

The S+P 500 had related support at 4104 – 4115/ESU.

The Aug 6 Weekly Re-Lay described the ideal scenario for this past week in this manner:

“… the more likely scenario appears to be that stock indexes could pull back on Aug 8 and possibly Aug 9, before resuming their advances… The greatest (and tightest) synergy of daily support levels appears in the NQ-100 and could see it pulling back to 12,943 – 12,986… then quickly reversing back up.  That would be the most bullish case for the next 1 – 2 weeks and could ultimately reinforce its intra-month uptrend.”

The Nasdaq-100 pulled back to 12,963/NQU (S+P hit 4113/ESU) and bottomed on Aug 9 – fulfilling the ideal timing and price for an early-week pullback.  That provided another short-term opportunity for 3 – 5 day traders with stocks projected to enter a new rally into (at least) mid-month…

A rally into Aug 12 – 16 would fulfill the intra-month uptrends and perpetuate a ~1-month/~30-day cycle that includes multi-week lows on March 14/15, April 12, May 12, June 16 & July 14… and should invert and time a related high on Aug 12 – 16

1 – 4 week & 1 – 2 month traders (futures and cash) could have entered long positions in stock indexes during the July 14 sell-off as the indexes retested their early-July lows.  1/2 of these should have been exited at 33,400/DJIA, 4260/ESU (w/avg. gains of about $24,000/contract) & 1970/QRU.

Risk (exit on) the other 1/2 on a daily close below the Aug 11 lows.”  [TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!]

August 13, 2022, Weekly Re-Lay

08/20/22 Weekly Re-Lay – Stock Indices surged from Aug 9 into Aug 16, fulfilling the latest bullish signal (triggered when the NQ-100 pulled back to ~12,980/NQU on Aug 9 and projected a new surge) and the prevailing intra-month uptrends… which were portending rallies into Aug 15/16 (mid-month).

A peak on Aug 15/16 was expected to perpetuate a ~1-month/~30-day cycle that had timed multi-week lows on the 12 – 16th of the month (March 14/15, April 12, May 12, June 16 & July 14) and was overdue for an inversion and resulting high. 

A peak on Aug 15/16 would fulfill a ~1-month low-low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progression… Stocks precisely fulfilled that, peaking on Aug 16 as the DJIA was reaching its final upside target (and profit-taking level for the July 14 buy signal) at 34,200

Corroborating all that, the DJTA had a 20-week high-high-(high) Cycle Progression emerging on Aug 15 – 19, when it would complete successive advances of 5 weeks each.  It peaked on Aug 16

1 – 4 week & 1 – 2 month traders (futures and cash) could have entered long positions in stock indexes during the July 14 sell-off as the indexes retested their early-July lows.  1/2 of these should have been exited at 33,400/DJIA, 4260/ESU (w/avg. gains of about $24,000/contract) & 1970/QRU.

In the case of the DJIA, the other 1/2 should have been exited when it hit 34,200/DJIA this past week. The Russell 2000 triggered exiting the second 1/2 on the Aug 19 close.”  [TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!]

August 20, 2022, Weekly Re-Lay

Result

That intermediate buy signal was triggered on July 13/14, 2022 – in sync with daily & weekly cycle lows – and reached fruition (and was exited) as daily & weekly cycles peaked on August 12 – 16, 2022.  Time to look for another opportunity!