17-Year Cycle & Silver
The 17-Year Cycle has held sway over the Silver market - timing multi-year lows in 1974, 1991 & 2008. 2025 is the next phase in that progression and is forecast to time a major advance in Silver (as well as Platinum & Palladium) beginning in April ’25.
17-Year Cycle & 3 ‘Cs’ of Trading
The 17-Year Cycle & 3 ‘Cs’ of Trading discusses the intriguing coincidence (correlation?) of multiple major cycle shifts projected to take hold between late-Nov ’24 and late-Jan ’25. As stocks prepare for a major decline, Gold is projecting a new rally to begin in Jan ’25… after the Dollar peaks.
17-Year Cycle & 4-Shadow: 20 - 25% Initial Plunge
The 17-Year Cycle & 4-Shadow details how the 17-Year Cycle projects a minimum 20 - 25% plunge in stock indexes - expected to initially bottom in early-April ‘25. If key objectives are met at that time, it will ‘cast shadows ahead’ to ??? (see publications).
17-Year Cycle & Stock Market Peaks VII
December 30, 2024 INSIIDE Track Stock Index Update:
Stocks Bouncing After December Sell-off; Prep for January 6th Shift!
12-30-24 - “Stock Indices have consolidated after their initial plunge into Dec 19th that fulfilled the first phase of analysis following the Nov 25th peaks (in IDX, RUT, DJTA). A second decline is expected in January and should ultimately result in a drop into February/March ‘25.
That decline could/should begin by January 6/7th, at the latest.
To recap… Equities fulfilled the potential for sharp multi-week declines into December 19/20th with the DJIA plunging to within a few hundred points of its initial downside target as the S+P Midcap 400 - the focus of this analysis - plunged right to its range-trading support and 3 - 4 week downside target at 3100 - 3125/IDX. That came after it peaked precisely at its upside range-trading target (~3400/IDX).
Its initial low - likely just a stopping point on the way to lower levels - also fulfilled a type of ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ support where the low before the previous (culminating) advance had taken hold in late-October.
Ideally, it will spike a little higher (~3200/IDX) before declining again (watch January 3/6th for that spike high, but only in certain indexes).
The DJTA, which also peaked right at its upside range target (~17,600), plummeted right back to its early-October low and range-trading support (~15,600) while turning its weekly trend down… the first to do so. That is a lagging/confirming indicator, usually triggered near an initial low.
(The S+P Midcap needs a weekly close below 3088/IDX to do the same.) It also closed below its weekly 21 Low MAC. The Transports have vacillated near that pivotal support ever since.
The Russell 2000, another index that peaked in lockstep with its upside range target (~2460/QR), plunged to its early-October low - retracing all of the pre- & post-election gains. All the indexes attacked & spiked below weekly HLS levels (extreme downside targets) at that time - reinforcing projections for a blow-off spike low and reversal higher on December 19/20th.
Those lows were/are expected to hold for several weeks.
Stock indexes rebounded into Dec 26/27th - fulfilling short-term expectations and daily trend patterns. That triggered a quick, sharp pullback with some indexes (S+P 500 & NQ-100) indicating that could/should be their secondary highs.
In others (DJTA, Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400), a second rebound is possible - with January 3rd/6th providing the likely time for the next daily cycle high (above the Dec 26/27th highs in those indexes).
On a broader basis, stocks continue to validate the late-November ’24 peaks - highs that fulfilled a myriad of daily, weekly, monthly AND multi-year cycles and ushered in a dangerous 2 - 4-week (into Dec 19/20) AND 2 - 4-month (into mid-Feb - mid-March ’25) period.
The DJTA, S+P Midcap 400 & Russell 2000 are setting up some intriguing Cycle Progressions that could pinpoint the likely times for future lows (and sharp sell-offs leading into them). If secondary highs are set on January 3rd/6th, it would reinforce those cycles… that will be discussed in impending publications.” -- December 30, 2024 INSIIDE Track Stock Index Update
January 6th Pivot
All signs (technical, cyclical & fundamental) are pointing to January 6th as the completion of this rebound cycle and the onset of a new - and potentially more damaging - decline in equities.
The DJIA, S+P 500 & NQ-100 are showing that December 26/27th completed their rebounds while the DJTA, S+P Midcap 400 & Russell 2000 are likely to wait until January 3/6th to peak and reverse lower.
January 6, 2025 ushers in a second multi-week ‘Danger Period’ for stocks that could be linked to the continued decline in Bonds & Notes (and corresponding rally in interest rates).
The DJTA, S+P Midcap 400 & Russell 2000 have specific rebound price targets where they should peak by/on January 6th and then enter a very precarious period, stretching into [see publications for specifics].
The December plunge was/is forecast to ‘cast shadows ahead’ to two key time frames in 1Q 2025… the first begins on January 6, 2025.
See previous Linkedin articles for corresponding analysis:
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/17-year-cycle-three-cs-trading-insiide-track-trading-6fvmc
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/bellwether-index-insiide-track-trading-glmdc
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/17-year-cycle-stocks-4q-2024-octobernovember-finale-zbvac
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/17-year-cycle-november-2024-cycles-stock-market-lwg3c
Specific analysis, targets, cycles & projections will continue to be published in Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications.
TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
For details and related articles, go to www.insiidetracktrading.com.
17-Year Cycle & Conflict Cycles
01-01-25 Update - 8-Year Cycle of American Attacks & 80-Year Cycle of War Reinforced by New Year’s Day Attacks… Geophysical instability could follow during specific period of time.
2025 Times Collision of Dangerous Cycles; Reinforces Outlook for Several Revealing Markets. Unstable Time Begins in January 2025!
11/30/24 - “8’s & 80’s: Cycles of Conflict
Another pair of ’C’s - Cycles of Conflict - are focused on 2025 as a potentially volatile time.
One is the culmination of the 80-Year Cycle of War that helped pinpoint the Russia/Ukraine & Hamas/Israel conflicts. 2025 is 80 years from 1945… and all that occurred during that momentous year. It is also 160 years from 1865 (culmination of Civil War).
The other is the 8-Year Cycle of American Attacks (physical & cyber) that recurs in 2025.
That has been discussed over the past ~15 years and has also timed major cyber attacks that entered escalated phases in 2009 & 2017…
2025/2026
There are many related 17-Year Cycles that are entering the volatile and unsettling transition phase. They include US recessions, real estate extremes, US Dollar extremes, earth disturbance swarms, solar-related phenomenon, etc… they are all expected to create a very challenging period from late-2024 into late-2026.
The topping phase needs to unfold first… then the ‘dominos’ should start to fall [reserved for subscribers]…
The first bout of inflation, in the current decade, involved a surge from a deflationary low in ~March 2020 into an initial peak in 2022. That was in perfect lockstep with what was described in 2020 issues of INSIIDE Track:
https://www.insiidetracktrading.com/wp-content/uploads/40-Year-Cycle-A-New-Currency-War-II.pdf
In early-2020, the handwriting was already on the walls - with inflation forecast for 2020 - 2022. That was published repeatedly - before anyone began to recognize the implications - and is not unlike what unfolded in the 1970’s.
The technical & cyclical outlook for Bonds & Notes corroborates this scenario. So, too, does the outlook for the return of the 17-Year Cycle of US Recessions that has a ~93% accuracy rate - up to this point. In this case, however, there are also cycles arguing for stagflation to be part of that.
The recessionary part of that period is when the ’C’ wave advance should unfold in Bonds & Notes (‘A’ wave advance from Oct ’23 into Aug/Sept 2024 & ‘B’ wave decline into early-Nov ‘24) - before the inflationary part overtakes the focus and begins to weigh on Bonds & Notes.
Inflation Markets - Metals
Gold & Silver are fulfilling the outlook for a multi-month top to take hold in late-October - as part of the overall outlook for precious metals. The peak in late-October ‘24 fulfilled an ongoing ~1-year/~12.5-month high-high-low (Aug ’21) - low (Sept ’22) - low (Oct ’23) - (high; late-Oct 2024) Cycle Progression… and projected a future peak for October/November 2025.
That was reinforced by related ~54-week cycle & 27-week low-high-(high) Cycle Progressions and the latest phase of a ~5-week/34 - 37-day low-high-high-high-(high; Oct 30 - Nov 4) Cycle Progression in Gold. Silver reached upside targets on October 22/23 and projected a 2 - 3 month peak.
Gold neutralized its weekly uptrend multiple times, during the initial sell-off, and would not turn that trend down until a weekly close below 2565/GCG. That trend indicator should determine how long this corrective period lasts and when a new advance becomes more likely in Gold.
Silver continues to lag and could easily see a drop to 27.50 - 28.00/SIH as part of this overall retreat. For the past 3+ weeks, it has traded inside its flattening weekly 21 MAC and is poised to turn that channel lower AND potentially close below it. A weekly close below 30.00/SIH would confirm.
From its Oct ‘23 low, Silver rallied in a clear 5-wave formation (a likely, overall ‘III’ wave advance) and is now tracing out a likely ‘a-b-c’ correction that could/should drop toward its ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ support near 28.00/SIH…
On a multi-year basis, Gold & Silver continue to reinforce analysis that projected major, multi-year lows to take hold in late-2022 and trigger multi-year advances.
Ultimately, these trends and cycles could spur higher prices into 2027.
The XAU & HUI have dropped sharply after fulfilling upside projections in price and time as the XAU surged into a synergistic convergence of geometric cycle highs on October 21/22nd. That top fulfilled an ~18-week low-low-low-low-(high; Oct 21 - 25, 2024 Cycle Progression as well as:
l ~4-month low (Feb 13) - low (June 17) - (high; October 21/22, 2024) Cycle Progression.
l ~2-month low (Feb 13) - low (April 16) - low (June 17) - high (Aug 20) - (high; October 21/22, 2024) Cycle Progression.
l ~3-month high (Jan 12) - high (April 12) - high (July 16/17) - (high; October 16 - 22, 2024) Cycle Progression.
That also fulfilled a similar ~1-year/~12.5-month high-high-low (Aug ’21) - low (Sept ’22) - low (Oct ’23) - (high; late-Oct 2024) Cycle Progression as in Gold. They have since sold off and confirmed a top, projecting a quick drop to early-August lows.
The XAU has neutralized its weekly uptrend multiple times but would not turn that trend down until a weekly close below 142.35/XAU. Similar to Silver, the XAU is turning its weekly 21 MAC negative and could see another decline - to 130 - 133/XAU - in the coming week(s).
Platinum has sold off since fulfilling cycles that projected a multi-month peak in late-October/early- November ‘24. It is expected to set higher highs in March - June 2025 - a 17-Year Cycle from its March 2008 peak and convergence of other cycles.
Palladium is powerfully confirming that a 6 - 12-month bottom is intact, in line with ongoing analysis. It is expected to set its next 3 - 6 month peak in 1Q 2025 - the convergence of multiple cycles and a ~3-year low (1Q ‘16) - high (1Q ‘19) - high (1Q ‘22) - (high; 1Q 2025) Cycle Progression.
Palladium fulfilled projections for an initial surge from ~1000 to ~1200/PAZ - ushering in a multi-month top & pullback (while reinforcing future cycles in 1Q 2025). On balance, that could spur a new surge to ~1600/PA as the next primary upside objective. That advance should begin in late-2024.
The technical & cyclical outlooks were recently validated by key fundamental factors as Western sanctions on Russian Palladium are being considered. This came right after China and then Russia announced the launch of Platinum & Palladium futures in their respective nations.
The launch of futures on both these exchanges opens up the potential for a massive new audience to speculate, invest or hedge these metals - often skewed heavily toward new buying.
Copper continues to decline after peaking in late-Sept without turning its weekly trend up. That projected a likely drop to its Aug ’24 low. Copper continues to confirm a major peak was set in May ‘24 - the convergence of multi-year cycles and the completion of a clear 5-wave advance from its January 2016 bottom. That could spur an ultimate drop to [reserved for subscribers]…” -- December 2024 INSIIDE Track TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
January 2025 Cycles
Precious metals are forecast to extend their corrections into January 2025 when the 8-Year Cycle of American Attacks begins as the 80-Year Cycle of War prepares for its crescendo. Other markets - often correlated to this type of instability - concur and are pinpointing the likely time for a new bout of upheaval.
Coinciding with this, recurring cycles of geophysical instability also enter a potentially-volatile time in January 2025. INSIIDE Track & the Weekly Re-Lay elaborate on all of this.
Why Does January 2025 Hold Such Heightened Potential for Instability & Turmoil?
Specific analysis, targets, cycles & projections will continue to be published in related Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications.
For related analysis on specific war cycles, see:
https://www.insiidetracktrading.com/wp-content/uploads/17-Year-Cycle-Middle-East.pdf
https://www.insiidetracktrading.com/wp-content/uploads/Middle-East-War-Cycles-in-Late-2023.pdf
TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
More information can be found at www.insiidetracktrading.com
17-Year Cycle & Stock Market Peaks VI
Stocks Plummeting into Initial Cycle Low (~Dec 19th); Casting Shadows Ahead to January 2025!
12-18-24 - “Stock Indices are reacting to the latest Fed move… or at least to the latest Fed words, plunging in line with monthly, weekly & daily cycles.
Except when the ‘actions’ surprise the markets - which is only a minority of the time - Fed ‘words’ are usually the focus, with traders meticulously dissecting what word or words changed in the latest Fed Statement.
While it should be no surprise - given all the data that has been released in the past ~6 weeks (since the previous Fed meeting) - that the Fed is looking to slow the pace and amount of rate cuts, the market still reacted as if this was new news.
In contrast, the market is doing exactly what cycles and a host of already-described technical indicators anticipated.
Stock indexes fulfilled 1 - 2 month upside targets and cycles on November 25th - as well as some multi-year cycles - adhering to the scenario described in early-October. The DJTA, Russell 2K & S+P Midcap all peaked right at their multi-month upside range (3400/IDX, 17,600/DJTA & 2460/QR) during the Nov 22/25th target cycle.
They generated multiple negative/sell signals in late-Nov/early-Dec and have consistently reinforced those signals in recent weeks.
The DJIA topped while fulfilling a ~4-week (25 - 28 day) low-low-low-(high) and a ~16-week low-low-(high) Cycle Progression and was projected to see an initial drop into Dec 16 - 19th… fulfilling the outlook for a multi-week drop to 41,600 - 41,800/DJIA.
Even 2024’s ‘tech darling’ - NVDA - peaked on Nov 7th (highest daily close) and created an intraday spike high on Nov 21st… and has since declined. Based on its daily 21 AND 40 MACs, that stock turned negative and entered its most vulnerable period (from a technical perspective) this week.
Since precisely fulfilling multi-month cycle highs on November 25th, the S+P Midcap 400 has declined on 12 out of the 16 days since then and already plunged to its first downside range-trading target (~3125/IDX).
The DJTA has declined for 14 of those 16 days, dropping over 10% from its Nov 25th peak.
While the DJIA extended its decline to 10 days straight for the first time since 1974, the S+P advance/decline line has dropped for 12 days in a row.
Are these outliers?
Or a warning of underlying weakness in the overall market?
Even as the NQ-100 set new highs - on the backs of a handful of overheating stocks - the rest of the market has validated what was described in early-October (projecting a multi-pronged advance into November 22/25th followed by sharp declines).
Meanwhile, the DJIA is doing exactly what was forecast on December 7th when it was projected to see a sharp, multi-week drop into December 19th with a primary downside target at 41,600 - 41,800 (published while the DJIA was above 44,500):
12-07-24 - “The DJIA…peaked while fulfilling a ~4-week (25 - 28 day) low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progression and could see an initial drop into December 16 - 19th. A multi-week drop to 41,600 - 41,800/DJIA is becoming more likely.” -- Dec 7, 2024 Weekly Re-Lay
…These indexes are powerfully validating price targets and the outlook for an initial plunge into December 19th… The weekly closing levels should provide additional clues as to what to expect in the coming weeks.” -- December 18, 2024 Weekly Re-Lay Alert
October/November Surges
In early-October, the Weekly Re-Lay explained how and why stock indexes should see an overall rally into late-November ’24 with the ultimate top (at least in the S+P Midcap 400, Russell 2000 & DJTA) on November 25th, projected to occur near 3400/IDX, 2460/RUT & 17,600/DJTA:
November 25th Peak; Sell-off into December 19th
They fulfilled that analysis - peaking precisely on November 25th and precisely at those upside range targets - and were/are projected to undergo initial (sharp) multi-week sell-offs that would culminate on December 16 - 19th - when an initial low was/is most likely.
Acceleration lower was/is forecast for those final days (Dec 16 - 19th) as an initial leg down is being fulfilled, with a spike low most likely on December 19th…
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/17-year-cycle-three-cs-trading-insiide-track-trading-6fvmc
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/bellwether-index-insiide-track-trading-glmdc
All of this was/is forecast to ‘cast shadows ahead’ to two key time frames in 1Q 2025… the first in January 2025.
A blow-off spike low in stock indexes - on December 19th (+ or - 1 trading day) would POWERFULLY fulfill this ongoing analysis AND further validate what is expected for early-2025. Corresponding action in Gold & Silver, Bitcoin, Bonds, Energy Markets & the Dollar Index are corroborating this outlook.
At least one big surprise is appearing more and more likely for early-2025!
See previous Linkedin articles for corresponding analysis:
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/17-year-cycle-stocks-4q-2024-octobernovember-finale-zbvac
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/17-year-cycle-november-2024-cycles-stock-market-lwg3c
Specific analysis, targets, cycles & projections will continue to be published in Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications.
TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
For details and related articles, go to www.insiidetracktrading.com.
17-Year Cycle & Stock Market Peaks IV
12-19-24 Update - Stock Indexes Fulfilling December 16 - 20th Danger Period; Confirming November 25th Cycle Highs! Reinforcing Late-December/Early-January ’25 Outlook…
November 25th Times Cycle Peak in Major Stock Indexes (IDX, RUT & DJTA); Upside Price Targets Attacked!
11/30/24 - “Outlook 2025 - The Three ‘Cs’ of Trading
Some revealing market relationships are maturing so it is a good time to review important principles about analyzing and/or trading seemingly related markets. The recognition and adherence to one critical principle is vital to long-term trading success.
Coincidence, Correlation or Causality?
In early-October, two coinciding analyses - in two often-correlated markets - were repeatedly described in the Weekly Re-Lay with the focus on new buy signals that were projecting strong rallies into November 2024. Those two markets were Stock Indices - with the focus on the S+P Midcap 400 and to a lesser extent, the Russell 2000 - and Bitcoin.
The obvious question was: ‘What Does This Mean?’.
Context for 3 ‘C’s
The two markets often move hand-in-hand. However, ‘coincidence does not mean causality’. More likely, it is a case of an overriding factor(s) influencing multiple markets similarly. They do, however, provide a corroborating interplay...
The Oct 3, 2024 issue of The Bridge (a Weekly Re-Lay publication) elaborated on July/August 2024 cycle lows in Bitcoin and explained how new buy signals were projecting a surge into Nov. 2024 (as part of a broader advance into 2025).
Days later, the Oct 9, 2024 issue of the Weekly Re-Lay (and repeated issues that followed during October & November) described the ’coinciding’ outlook for the S+P Midcap 400 - and related small and midcap stocks & indexes - to undergo two successive rallies. (See insets.)
The first rally was forecast to unfold in October and - after a quick sell-off into early-Nov. cycle lows - the second was forecast to take place in November, lasting through most of the month and potentially peaking in late-November.
[November 22 & 25th were highlighted as the two days with the greatest synergy of daily, weekly & monthly cycle highs converging. However, with cycles of this magnitude - many of them being weekly or monthly cycles - there is a broader range of time when a multi-month peak could take hold.]
Combining the ‘C’s
On Oct 16, 2024, the Weekly Re-Lay brought these analyses together with an Alert titled: “Crypto Correlation: Coincidence or Causality?”. In there, the outlook for two coinciding rallies was reiterated, concluding the following:
10-16-24 - The October 3, 2024 issue of The Bridge focused on Currency War cycles and the potential for Bitcoin to see an October surge…. stock indexes were projecting a similar October surge with small and mid-cap indexes expected to lead the way… Whether that is coincidence or causality - or a little of both - matters little. It is always important to analyze each market on its own merits and technicals and to avoid the temptation to trade one market off the outlook for another.” -- October 16, 2024 Weekly Re-Lay Alert
The two can, and sometimes do, move in lockstep with one another but the magnitudes and timing of those corresponding moves often diverge due to a myriad of other factors that exert a stronger influence on the markets being observed.
And that brings this discussion to the ‘Axiom of Market Correlation’ reprinted on page 6. Each market should be assessed on its own merits.
8’s & 80’s: Cycles of Conflict
Another pair of ’C’s - Cycles of Conflict - are focused on 2025 as a potentially volatile time. One is the culmination of the 80-Year Cycle of War that helped pinpoint the Russia/Ukraine & Hamas/Israel conflicts. 2025 is 80 years from 1945… and all that occurred during that momentous year. It is also 160 years from 1865 (culmination of Civil War).
The other is the 8-Year Cycle of American Attacks (physical & cyber) that recurs in 2025. That has been discussed over the past ~15 years and has also timed major cyber attacks that entered escalated phases in 2009 & 2017. Stay tuned...
Stock Indices have further validated the latest phase of the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Market Peaks. While that could time a peak at any point in 2024, most indications were signaling it would wait until 4Q 2024. (The first chance was in October ‘24 but was not confirmed - with several stocks peaking as the Indexes failed to reverse.)
If/when that is fulfilled, the next question would be what it would take to signal a top… and when a substantial decline would become more likely. Those factors are [reserved for subscribers]…
The subsequent decline - based solely on that 17-Year Cycle (other factors will be incorporated) - is expected to last [reserved for subscribers]… and lead to at least a 20% decline… potentially as much as 50%. To reiterate, that is JUST ONE factor in the midst of many - so it should not be overweighted in significance.
Of the last 3 occurrences, 2 of them lasted 1.5 - 2-years and suffered ~50% declines. The 3rd one (1990) lasted ~3 months and only dropped ~20%. So, there is a wide variance with this broad cycle. That is why the synergy of corroborating cycles and indicators is vital to validate this potential.
Two of the primary things the 17-Year Cycle has historically timed - with uncanny consistency - are stock market peaks (and subsequent sell-offs of a higher magnitude) and Middle East conflict.
The latter of those is being fulfilled with uncanny precision… while the former remains to be seen as stocks have not yet signaled a peak.
Range Trading Redux (Déjà vu?)
When it comes to validating and acting on these cycles, price action is always the primary focus. The past month brought some key validations to the broader outlook - reinforcing the thinking that most upside objectives are being fulfilled as lagging indexes projected October/November rallies.
One of them arrived in the index that led the Nov ‘21 peak and reversal lower (and subsequent 2022 sell-off)… and helped pinpoint the late-2023/early-2024 low and reversal higher - the Russell 2000.
In November 2021, Weekly Re-Lay publications updated the ongoing range-trading phenomenon in the Russell 2000 and explained how the attainment of major price and timing upside objectives were expected to usher in a 1 - 2 year peak (in Nov ‘21 and near 2460/QR) and a 6 - 12 month decline as part of that process.
Included with that analysis was a chart similar to the one included above, illustrating why ~2460/QR was decisive resistance projected to usher in that peak after fulfilling a myriad of upside price targets, wave objectives and range-trading targets (see Nov 2021 Weekly Re-Lays and December ‘21 INSIIDE Track for related analysis and charts).
The Russell 2000 peaked in perfect lockstep with that convergence of targets and cycle highs and began a ~2-year decline that did not set its lowest weekly close until late-October 2023… as it was again testing the levels of the 2018 & 2020 peaks - multi-year levels of ‘resistance turned into support’.
That 2023 low ushered in a ~year-long advance - a 50% rebound in time - that brought the Russell right back to the same major upside target at ~2460/QR… three years from its previous peak.
The rally into November 2024 perpetuated this range-trading sequence and finally had the Russell 2000 attacking that objective at the same time a myriad of daily, weekly & monthly cycles converged in late-Nov…. that fulfills a number of upside objectives and cycles…
2025/2026
There are many related 17-Year Cycles that are entering the volatile and unsettling transition phase. They include US recessions, real estate extremes, US Dollar extremes, earth disturbance swarms, solar-related phenomenon, etc.
It may take substantial time for these to reach fruition but they are all expected to create a very challenging period from late-2024 into late-2026. The topping phase needs to unfold first… then the ‘dominos’ should start to fall.
6 - 12 month & 1 - 2 year traders and investors can [reserved for subscribers]…” -- December 2024 INSIIDE Track TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
October/November Surges
In early-October, the Weekly Re-Lay explained how and why stock indexes should see an overall rally into late-November ’24 with multiple peaks (and quick sell-offs) along the way…
A multi-week peak was forecast for October 17/18 and projected to spur a quick drop (first ‘Danger Period’) into early-November.
Stocks Followed Suit.
A second peak was projected for November 11/12th, with a quick sharp drop into November 18th forecast (second ‘Danger/Panic Period’).
Stocks Followed Suit.
All along, a (MUCH) more significant peak has been forecast for November 22/25th - in the S+P Midcap 400, DJTA & Russell 2000. Multi-month upside range-trading targets were identified at ~3400/IDX, ~17,600/DJTA & ~2460/QR.
So far, stocks have adhered to this analysis with the S+P Midcap 400, DJTA & Russell 2000 peaking on November 25th while attacking their multi-month upside range-trading targets at ~3400/IDX, ~17,600/DJTA & ~2460/QR… fulfilling decisive objectives and pivotal cycles that have been in focus these past two months.
That projects an initial multi-week drop into December 16 - 20th… with downside targets already taking form. Key indicators - like the daily & weekly 21 MACs/MARCs and daily/weekly trend indicators - are revealing when a new (and more dangerous) ‘Danger Period’ is more likely.
Multiple Stock Indexes Fulfill Price AND Time Upside Targets; Project Quick, Sharp (Multi-Week) Declines!
Specific analysis, targets, cycles & projections will continue to be published in related Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications.
TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
More information can be found at www.insiidetracktrading.com.
17-Year Cycle & Stock Market Peaks III
12-19-24 Update - Stock Indexes Fulfilling December 16 - 20th Danger Period; Confirming November 25th Cycle Highs! Reinforcing Late-December/Early-January ’25 Outlook…
11-27-24 Update: - S+P Midcap 400, Russell 2000 AND DJTA attack Major Upside Range Targets During November 22/25th Cycle Peak… Enter Transition Period…
November 22/25th Cycle Peak Arrives; IDX, RUT & DJTA Attack Upside Targets
11/21/24 - “Stock Indices are on track for a second peak at any time. It is now Decision Time! Based on daily trend indicators, the early-week action projected a 2 - 3 day rally starting November 19th. That has been fulfilled and ushers in the 2-day period cited in a number of previous updates as the ideal time for a final peak.
That corroborates the outlook for a pair of divergent highs in November - the first on Nov 11/12th and the second around Nov 22/25th.
That was reiterated last week, corroborating ongoing analysis elaborated the week prior - all with the focus on the days surrounding November 22/25th.
Daily trend patterns - in indexes like the DJIA & NQ-100 - now reinforce that potential.
Here is a sample of analysis from the past couple weeks:
____________________________________
11-13-24 - “It is also possible the indexes provide another ‘rerun’ - creating a divergent pair of highs on Nov 11/12th & Nov 22/25th.
The first sign of a reversal lower would be daily closes below the November 7th lows. Until that occurs, the trends remain up and could still spur additional spike highs.” -- November 13, 2024 Weekly Re-Lay Alert
11-06-24 - “The October 31st plunges, in several indexes, had them attacking daily HLS levels (extreme downside targets) and reinforcing the likelihood for daily lows on Nov 4/5th.
The DJIA spiked lower into November 4th - retesting intermediate support and fulfilling daily cycles while remaining in a weekly uptrend.
The S+P 500 retested its October low (5724/ESZ) and late-August/early-September highs (‘resistance turned into support’ at 5725 - 5730/ESZ) and held… during the week after testing and holding its weekly HLS (extreme downside target).
It dropped right to its rising weekly 21 High MAC - in what is likely a wave ‘4’ of a ~3-month uptrend (from its early-August ’24 low) - and surged today, validating that wave structure and entering wave ‘5’.
The index that was expected to lead a new rally - at some point in November - is the one that remained in the most bullish structure and setup in recent weeks.
The S+P Midcap 400 has been steadily showing signs of strength, leading into what is likely/expected to be a multi-month (or longer) peak in late-November ’24. That was reiterated throughout October and was reinforced by the action of late-October/early-November.
It validated the late-November cycles with an initial peak on October 17/18th, reinforcing those future cycles in late-November ’24. Similar cycles have been unfolding in the DJ Transportation Average, which also remains on track for a likely 3 - 6 month (or longer) peak in November 2024.
The late-November ’24 cycle highs - cited in that October 9th analysis and reiterated since then - are corroborated by similar cycles in the DJTA. They include:
- ~8-month high-high-high-(high; November ’24) Cycle Progression
- ~12.5-month* low-low-low-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression
- [More precise *56-week low-low-(high; November 18 - 25, ’24) Cycle Progression]
- 17 - 18-week high-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression
- ~5-week low-low-high-(high; November 18 - 25, ’24) Cycle Progression**
**The DJIA has a similar ~5-week/~37-day low-low-high-(high; Nov 18 - 25, ’24) Cycle Progression coming into play at that time with November 22/25th representing the daily version of that cycle. Now that it has confirmed a low, a peak is likely at that time.” -- November 6, 2024 Weekly Re-Lay Alert
____________________________________
And all the November ’24 analysis was restating what had been described in early-October ’24 and the weeks that followed - projecting a final peak to stretch into late-November 2024… in at least one of the stock indexes that are discussed in these publications (ideally, the S+P Midcap 400):
____________________________________
10-09-24 - “Similar to what occurred in June/July 2024, this could be showing that another push into smaller & mid-sized stocks is on the horizon. Interestingly, the S+P Midcap has its greatest synergy of monthly & weekly cycles converging in late-November ’24. If a multi-month high were set at that time, it would fulfill the following cycles & timing indicators:
~13-month/~56-week low-low-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
~8-month/34 - 35-week high (late-March ’22) - high (late-Nov ’22) - high (late-July ’23) - high (late-March ’24) - (high; late-Nov 2024) Cycle Progression.
~4-month/~17 - 18-week high-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
~2-month/~8 - 9-week high-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
~15-week low-low-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
~5-week low-low-low-high*- (high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression… *if the S+P Midcap rallies into October 14 - 18th.
Back-to-back-to-back-to-back ~13-month rallies (Dec ’18 - Jan ’20, Mar ’20 - Apr ’21, June ’22 - July ’23, Oct ’23 - November 2024).
So it is possible, if it emerges as expected, that a late-October peak would only be a penultimate one… with the ultimate IDX peak waiting until late-Nov ’24.
The S+P Midcap 400 remains in a bullish setup… The latest spurred a brief pullback that twice neutralized (but did not turn down) the daily uptrend while setting successive lows at the rising daily 21 High MAC and reversing higher repeatedly (without turning the intra-month trend down). All those factors are likely to spur a breakout higher that could see a quick, accelerated rally...” -- October 9, 2024 Weekly Re-Lay Alert
____________________________________
The S+P 400 remains the index in focus… with the greatest chance of retesting its recent highs. It would not turn its daily trend down until a daily close below the November 15th low. Until that occurs, it is capable of spiking to new highs…
With all of these indexes reaching multi-month upside targets (or extreme targets), a final peak could take hold at any time and fulfill the multi-month and multi-year cycles previously described.
The potential for a large correction is now increasing with each passing day as a result of most extreme upside targets - in price and time - being fulfilled in diverse stocks and indexes.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Multiple Stock Indexes Fulfilling Price AND Time Upside Targets! Decision Time Arrives!!
Specific analysis, targets, cycles & projections will continue to be published in related Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications.
TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
More information can be found at www.insiidetracktrading.com.
17-Year Cycle & Stock Market Peaks II
12-19-24 Update - Stock Indexes Fulfilling December 16 - 20th Danger Period; Confirming November 25th Cycle Highs! Reinforcing Late-December/Early-January ’25 Outlook…
11-27-24 Update: - S+P Midcap 400, Russell 2000 AND DJTA attack Major Upside Range Targets During November 22/25th Cycle Peak… Enter Transition Period…
Small & Midcap Stocks (& Bitcoin) Project October/November ’24 Rallies
10-16-24 Weekly Re-Lay Alert - Crypto Correlation: Coincidence or Causality? - “The October 3, 2024 issue of The Bridge focused on Currency War cycles and the potential for Bitcoin to see an October surge into a November ’24 high…
At the same time, stock indexes were projecting a similar October surge with small and mid-cap indexes expected to lead the way. The action of Bitcoin is often correlated to the action of the Russell 2000 and this was/is another instance where their respective outlooks and resulting action have moved in close lockstep with one another.
Whether that is coincidence or causality - or a little of both - matters little.
It is always important to analyze each market on its own merits and technicals and to avoid the temptation to trade one market off the outlook for another. With that said, it is a good time to delve back into all the related analysis…
Stock Indices remain positive with the DJTA, Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400 validating analysis for them to lead the latest advance, initially projecting a new surge from October 7/8th into (ideally) October 17/18th (with a subsequent high forecast for late-October).
The DJTA traced out a textbook ‘a-b-c’ decline without turning its daily trend down, signaling it was poised to embark on a new rally into late-October - when its ~1.5-month cycle recurs - or early-Nov. Today’s action powerfully validated that…
At the same time, the S+P Midcap 400 broke out higher in fulfillment of ongoing analysis. It remains on track for a future peak… it has its greatest synergy of monthly & weekly cycles converging in late-November ’24.
Similar to what occurred in June/July 2024, this could be showing that another push into smaller & mid-sized stocks is unfolding. Interestingly, the S+P Midcap has its greatest synergy of monthly & weekly cycles converging in late-November ’24.
If a multi-month high were set at that time, it would fulfill the following cycles & timing indicators:
· ~13-month/~56-week low-low-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
· ~8-month/34 - 35-week high (late-March ’22) - high (late-Nov ’22) - high (late-July ’23) - high (late-March ’24) - (high; late-Nov 2024) Cycle Progression.
· ~4-month/~17 - 18-week high-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
· ~2-month/~8 - 9-week high-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
· ~15-week low-low-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
· ~5-week low-low-low-high*- (high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression… *if the S+P Midcap rallies into October 14 - 18th.
· Back-to-back-to-back-to-back ~13-month rallies (Dec ’18 - Jan ’20, Mar ’20 - Apr ’21, June ’22 - July ’23, Oct ’23 - November 2024).
So it is possible, if it emerges as expected, that a late-October peak would only be a penultimate one… with the ultimate IDX peak waiting until late-Nov ’24…
Bitcoin & Ether are reinforcing intermediate bottoming signals with Bitcoin turning its intra-month trend up. That increases the likelihood for rallies into November 2024 - the next phase of the ~8-month (& midpoint of the ~16-month) Cycle Progressions that timed the March ’24 top.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Small/Midcap Stocks & Bitcoin October/November ’24 Surges!
Specific analysis, targets, cycles & projections will continue to be published in related Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications.
TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
More information can be found at www.insiidetracktrading.com.
17-Year Cycle & Stock Market Peaks V
Midcap Momentum Moderating
12-04-24 - Stock Indices are showing minor signs of divergence with the S+P Midcap 400 remaining below its November 25th (cyclic) peak while tech stocks and indexes extended rallies into their early-December cycle highs. If the IDX is to validate that late-Nov cycle high, it should not give a daily close above that November 25th high.
Small cap and mid-cap stock indexes, as described in early-October ’24, were expected to mimic the action of June/July 2024 and lead an overall stock rally into late-November ’24.
At the same time, the Russell 2000 was targeting a retest of its November ’21 peak near 2460/QR (~2440 in the cash index).
Both indexes rallied into November 25th** with the Russell 2000 attacking that upside target. Both initially sold off and are now bouncing. At the same time, the NQ-100 and related stocks like MSFT are rallying into Dec 2 - 6th, when daily & weekly cycles portend a top.
(**IDX, RUT/QR & DJTA rallied 11 - 14% in Oct/Nov ‘24 while DJIA, SP & NQ only rallied 7 - 8%.)
Though it has fulfilled all of the upside timing targets, topping precisely on November 25th, the S+P Midcap 400 would not signal a reversal lower until a daily close below 3300/IDX.
The S+P 500 identified a key convergence of daily price & time indicators that is being fulfilled. Leading into this week, it already had weekly resistance identified at 6161 - 6194/ESH, with multiple indicators grouped at 6161 - 6172/ESH.
Its early-week low added another - the Intra-Week PLLR - at 6163/ESH. That range was corroborated by daily LHRs at 6173 - 6178/ESH.
Though these levels only represent 3 - 5 day and 1 - 2 week upside objectives, they could provide additional clues if they hold and spur a reversal lower.
That would be reinforced by a peak on December 4 - 6th, the latest phase of a ~1-month low-low-low-low-(high; Dec 4 - 6th) Cycle Progression that has timed intermediate turning points in the first 3 - 4 trading days of each respective month. A 15-day low-low-(high) Cycle Progression concurs.
This is in sync with normal intra-month trend and trading structure in which a market will often move in one direction for the first 2 - 4 trading days of a new month… but then reverse without triggering an intra-month trend signal in that direction…
For now, the trends are up and should be respected until proven otherwise. It would take daily closes below [reserved for subscribers] to signal a 1 - 2 week (or longer) top is in place.” -- December 5, 2024 Weekly Re-Lay Alert
In early-October, the Weekly Re-Lay explained how and why stock indexes should see an overall rally into late-November ’24 with multiple peaks (and quick sell-offs) along the way. This scenario - and its corresponding turning points - have been detailed along the way:
A multi-week peak was forecast for October 17/18 and projected to spur a quick drop (first ‘Danger Period’) into early-November.
Stocks obliged.
A second peak was projected for November 11/12th, with a quick sharp drop into November 18th forecast (second ‘Danger/Panic Period’).
Stocks obliged.
A more significant peak has been forecast for November 22/25th - in the S+P Midcap 400, DJTA & Russell 2000. (Tech stocks and the NQ-100 pinpointed Dec 4 - 6th as the time for a divergent peak.) Multi-month upside range-trading targets were identified at ~3400/IDX, ~17,600/DJTA & ~2460/QR.
So far, stocks have obliged with the S+P Midcap 400, DJTA & Russell 2000 peaking on November 25th while attacking their multi-month upside range-trading targets at ~3400/IDX, ~17,600/DJTA & ~2460/QR… fulfilling decisive objectives and pivotal cycles that have been in focus these past two months.
As of yet, however, confirmation of those tops has not materialized. The December 9th/10th action could change all that. (The 12/07/24 Weekly Re-Lay will elaborate.)
Key indicators - like the daily & weekly 21 MACs/MARCs and daily/weekly trend indicators - are revealing when a new (and potentially broader) ‘Danger Period’ is more likely.
That is also corroborated by key cycles & indicators in Bonds (interest rates), the US Dollar (forex), Gold and oil markets (energy).
See corresponding publications for details.
Specific analysis, targets, cycles & projections will continue to be published in Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications.
TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
For details and related articles, go to www.insiidetracktrading.com.