Gold/Silver Cycles - May 2024 - INSIIDE Track Trading

May 2024 – Gold/Silver Cycles… and How 3 Key Indicators Validated Wave & Cycle Progression Signals in mid-February ‘24.

The Entry… 2-17-24 – “1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders and investors can add to long positions in Gold & Silver at these levels…”

February 17, 2024, Weekly Re-Lay

2-21-24 – “1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders and investors can be entering/adding to long positions in Gold & Silver at these levels… risk weekly closes below the mid-Feb. lows.“

February 21, 2024, Weekly Re-Lay Alert

2-24-24 – “1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders and investors can be entering/adding to long positions in Gold & Silver at 2000 – 2030/GCJ & 22.50 – 23.50/SIK… risk weekly closes below the mid-Feb. lows…”

TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

February 24, 2024, Weekly Re-Lay

The Exit… 4-20-24 – “1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders/investors could have entered long positions in Gold & Silver at averages of 2045/GCM & 23.00/SIK and exited the second 1/2 mid-week w/avg. gains of about $35,000/contract & $25,500/contract, respectively.

The other 1/2 of Gold positions should have been exited when 2319/GCM was hit – with avg. gains of about $27,000/contract – and in Silver at the start of last week with avg. gains of about $23,000/contract.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

April 20, 2024, Weekly Re-Lay

The Golden Opportunity

Mid-February 2024 timed a multi-month cycle low in Gold & Silver and projected a sharp rally into April 12 – 19, 2024 – when a multi-week top was projected. All of that was published before (and during) the fact, illustrating to subscribers how key indicators work hand-in-hand with wave analysis and Hadik’s Cycle Progression tool.

Both metals had primary and (published) extreme upside targets that were expected to be reached during that surge… as additional validation to the outlook for October 2023 – October 2024. In addition, all of this was expected to corroborate the outlook for the US Dollar in 2024 – 2026 (as well as loosely-related markets like cryptocurrency with overlapping cycle highs in March & November ‘24).

February 13 – 15, ‘24 provided another ‘Golden Opportunity’ as both Gold & Silver bottomed in sync with weekly & monthly cycles and then quickly triggered a pair of intermediate buy signals, allowing traders to prepare for and capitalize on another significant move in the markets. It was the combination of multiple cycles and specific technical indicators that pinpointed this latest trade.

The Seismic Shift Continues

For over a decade, INSIIDE Track publications have described a pair of potentially tumultuous periods that would overlap the transition of major 40-Year Cycles of Currency Wars. The first was forecast to unfold in 2016 – 2021 – the culmination of the latest 40-Year Cycle.

This is a multi-generational cycle that should have a MAJOR impact on all form of currency in 2025 – 2028!

Gold’s New Bull Market

A major paradigm shift was forecast to take hold in late-2021 into late-2025 (with a broader, over-arching shift stretching into late-2029). This combines market cycles, geopolitical developments, social unrest cycles, geophysical destabilization, currency (and military) wars, and a myriad of other technical & fundamental forces colliding in the coming years.

Late-2021 ushered in the start of a multi-year war on Europe’s borders (Russia/Ukraine), a pivotal top in many stocks, a 1 – 2 year peak in cryptocurrency (the newest combatant in the 40-Year Cycle of Currency Wars), and the acceleration of a corresponding surge in inflation, commodity prices & interest rates.

That stretched through the first year – the ‘opening range’ – of this new 40-Year Cycle (into late-2022) and laid the foundation for several key market (and geopolitical) expectations for late-2022 into late-2025.

One of those involved projections for Gold & Silver to enter multi-year advances beginning in late-2022.

That overall analysis was described in many publications, articles and interviews, including:

https://www.insiidetracktrading.com/wp-content/uploads/Middle-East-War-Cycles-in-Late-2023.pdf

https://www.insiidetracktrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2023-04-11-ITT-Bridge-Gold-Silver-Elliott-Wave.pdf

The Setup & Signal(s)

The October 2023 (secondary) low reinforced the overall outlook for Gold & Silver, projecting a new advance that could last into late-October 2024 – the next phase of a ~12.5-month/~54-week low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progression and a collection of corresponding cycles and timing projections. Initially, a surge into July 2024 was forecast.

In mid-February ’24, Gold & Silver produced corroborating buy signals – on multiple levels – projecting a new 1 – 2 month surge as the latest phase of much larger, overall advances.

The ideal scenario, described numerous times before and during that rally, was for Gold to surge into April 12 – 19th and set a multi-week peak. If that were to occur, it would reinforce analysis for subsequent peaks in July & October 2024. However, these cycles – as helpful and sometimes uncanny as they may be – do NOT provide the specifics for entering, maintaining, and ultimately exiting positions in the market.

That is left to a proprietary sequence of indicators and trading signals, utilizing technicals that have been described to Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track subscribers over and over again.

The following is a collection of excerpts from the Weekly Re-Lay publications that set up this advance, triggered the corresponding buy signals, and followed Gold & Silver (and mining share indexes) through until they reached pivotal upside objectives in April 2024 – when exit signals were triggered.

[If Gold retraces without turning its weekly trend down, subsequent rallies into July and then October 2024 should produce successively higher highs.]…

TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

02-17-24 – “Gold & Silver are poised to see late-Feb/early-March rallies in sync with their 2-Year Cycle…

Gold & Silver extended their corrective patterns with Silver holding intra-year trend support for the 4th consecutive week as Gold showed this is a larger-magnitude ‘a-b-c’ correction from the early-Dec ’23 spike high. It closed the week back above its January low and 50% retracement level (2016/GCJ) – signaling that ‘c’ wave could be complete.

That does not change the outlook for a new rally and does not diminish the fact Gold (and GLD, etc.) remain in the upper extremes of its 1 – 2 year uptrend, 3 – 5 year trading range and 8 – 10 year uptrend on the verge of an upside breakout in 2024… potentially soon.

(GLD closed the week back above 185, reinforcing that bullish potential.)…

Both metals dropped to monthly support leading into mid-month with Silver perpetuating a ~1-month/~30-degree low-low cycle that had created lows on the 13th – 15th of the month in August, Sept, Nov & Dec 2023… and now in February ’24.

It held the low it set on Jan 17 – 24 – the latest phase of a ~15-week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression… and the final week when the weekly HLS pattern projected a 1 – 2 month low.

That should trigger an overall ~15-week advance into the first half of May 2024, a ~1-year/~360-degree cycle from the May 2023 high and 3 years from the May 2021 high…

Silver completed the week with an outside-week/2 Close Reversal higher – reinforcing its developing strength and the outlook for a multi-month rally into May 2024 (and potentially longer).

1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders and investors can add to long positions in Gold & Silver at these levels… TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

The XAU & HUI remain in a corrective pattern since fulfilling the outlook for a 4Q ’23 rally to 130 – 133/XAU & 251 – 254/HUI. That peak projected a future multi-month high in May 2024… and a long consolidation in between. The monthly 21 MACs & 21 MARCs turn more favorable in March/April 2024 so a new 2 – 3 month rally could begin at any time.

They just matched the magnitude of their previous (July – Oct ’23) declines, reinforcing that potential. The majority of upside moves in metals and mining indexes often occur in the final 10 – 20% of a cycle. With the next cycle peak expected in May ’24, the weeks (or months) leading into that could be when the largest part of a future advance is seen.“

February 17, 2024, Weekly Re-Lay

02-21-24 – “Gold & Silver remain in wide corrective patterns with Silver holding intra-year trend support for the 4th consecutive week as Gold showed this is a larger-magnitude ‘a-b-c’ correction from the early-Dec ’23 spike high (that may have bottomed last week). It closed the week back above its January low and 50% retracement level (2016/GCJ) – signaling that ‘c’ wave could be complete.

That reinforces the outlook for a new rally and the fact Gold (and GLD, etc.) remains in the upper extremes of its 1 – 2 year uptrend, 3 – 5 year trading range and 8 – 10 year uptrend on the verge of an upside breakout in 2024… potentially soon…

Silver completed the week with an outside-week/2 Close Reversal higher – reinforcing its developing strength and the outlook for a multi-month rally into May 2024 (and potentially longer)…

1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders and investors can be entering/adding to long positions in Gold & Silver at these levels… risk weekly closes below the mid-Feb. lows.“

February 21, 2024, Weekly Re-Lay Alert

02-24-24 – “Gold & Silver remain in wide corrective patterns with Silver holding intra-year trend support for the 5th consecutive week as Gold begins to rally after completing a larger-magnitude ‘a-b-c’ correction from the early-Dec ’23 spike high.

Gold closed the week back in its weekly uptrend (after neutralizing it multiple times but not turning it down… a potentially bullish configuration) and could complete an Intra-Month V Reversal higher if it rallies above 2083.2/GCJ by/on February 29th.

[That bullish reversal pattern is created when a market sets an initial intra-month high at the start of the month, then drops into mid-month, then rallies to a new intra-month high at the end of the month.]

That reinforces the outlook for a new rally and the fact Gold remains in the upper extremes of its 1 – 2 year uptrend, 3 – 5 year trading range and 8 – 10 year uptrend on the verge of an upside breakout in 2024… potentially soon. (The GLD ETF concurs and is projecting a multi-week surge to ~210.)

Gold has its own ~2-Year Cycle (similar to, but distinct from, stock indexes) that previously triggered a sharp rally… 2024 is set up to repeat that cycle/pattern!

Silver remains under the positive influence of its outside-week/2 Close Reversal higher – reinforcing the outlook for a multi-month rally into May 2024 (and potentially longer).

This occurred after it set a double bottom in mid-February, perpetuating a ~1-month/~30-degree low-low cycle that had created lows on the 13th – 15th of the month in August, Sept, Nov & Dec 2023… and now in February ’24.

Silver has twice neutralized its weekly downtrend and needs a weekly close above 23.76/SIK to reverse that trend to up and confirm a multi-month bottom. That would also generate a range-trading signal in which Silver has traded in ~1.50/SIK ranges the past 3 – 4 months (~22.25 – ~23.75 – ~25.25 – ~26.75/SIK).

Due to the position of its plunging but inversely-correlated weekly 21 MARC, Silver is likely to turn its weekly 21 MAC up in the coming week.

If it can do that while turning its weekly trend up, Silver would generate an exponentially more powerful signal and could trigger a quick surge to ~25.25/SIK (weekly LHRs) and potentially to its Dec. ’23 high. A weekly close above its weekly 21 High MAC (~24.30/SIK) would corroborate.

Gold & Silver are expected to move higher, on balance, into May ’24 and ultimately into early-July ’24 – the next phase of a ~7-month/~30-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression…

1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders and investors can be entering/adding to long positions in Gold & Silver at 2000 – 2030/GCJ & 22.50 – 23.50/SIK… risk weekly closes below the mid-Feb. lows…

The XAU & HUI remain corrective after fulfilling the outlook for a 4Q ’23 rally to 130 – 133/XAU & 251 – 254/HUI. That peak projected a future multi-month high in April/May 2024… and a long consolidation in between. A second multi-week rally is now poised to begin.

The monthly 21 MACs & 21 MARCs turn more favorable in March/April 2024 so a new 2 – 3 month rally could begin at any time. They initially bottomed after matching the magnitude of their previous (July – Oct ’23) declines, reinforcing that potential.

A rally into month-end, even if it does not exceed the early-month highs, would provide a bullish signal for a multi-week rally. An ~11-week high-high-low-high-(high) and corresponding ~5.5-week high-high-(high) Cycle Progression project the next high on March 8 – 15, 2024.

1 – 3 month traders & investors can enter long positions in related instruments (ETFs, stocks, etc.) and risk/exit on a weekly close below 102.30/XAU.“

February 24, 2024, Weekly Re-Lay

There were other, over-arching factors that corroborated this intermediate buy signal and reinforced the outlook for a bullish 2024 in Gold & Silver…

02-28-24 – “In late-2022, the US Dollar Index set a multi-year peak while the pair of ‘anti-Dollar’ antagonists – Bitcoin & Gold (digital & hard currency) – set multi-year lows. As described back then, this ushered in the next phase of the 40-Year Cycle of Currency Wars and should trigger major advances in cryptos and Gold – from 4Q 2022 into 4Q 2025 – and a corresponding decline in the US Dollar.

The previous phase – of that 40-Year Cycle – had culminated in 2016 – 2021, when Gold and related anti-Dollar ‘currency’ were projected to undergo an initial 4 – 5 year advance.

That would be the perfect ‘bookend’ to a 40-Year Cycle that began in 1976 – 1981 with the global monetary order’s official divorce decree from Gold (AKA the Jamaica Accord in 1976) and the resulting plunge in the US Dollar versus Gold – as Gold surged from ~100 to over 850/GC between August 1976 & January 1980.

2016 – 2020/21 was forecast to see a new surge in Gold, but nothing close to the magnitude of the 1976 – 1980 advance. It was merely the first phase of a larger overall advance in Gold. The second phase has been forecast to unfold during the opening years of this new 40-Year Cycle (2022 – 2025… and potentially longer).

At the same time, Bitcoin was projected to set a major, multi-year peak in November 2021 and undergo a bubble bursting decline similar to that seen in the XAU in the early 2010’s, the Nasdaq in the early-2000’s, and the Nikkei in the early 1990’s.

In each case, the market experiencing a bubble lost 75 – 80% of its peak value before a major, multi-year bottom took hold… and new trends began.

That is why Bitcoin was projected to plummet to at least 17,250/BT (75% drop from its ~69,000/BT peak) and possibly spike below 14,000/BT (80% drop) before a new multi-year low would take hold. Related cycles projected that plunge to last into at least September 2022…

Bitcoin fulfilled those downside objectives – in time and price – and was forecast to enter a new multi-year bull market. Gold & Silver also bottomed – in September – November 2022 – and were also projected to enter new multi-year advances (see page 2 for ‘correlation’).

At the same time, the Dollar Index attacked its ultimate, multi-year upside target (~113.00/DX) and completed a textbook 5-wave advance from its 2008 bottom. A top was forming! A new 40-Year Cycle of Currency Wars was set to begin… with a bang.

At the time, Bitcoin perpetuated a recurring 15 – 16 month Cycle Progression that projected an overall advance into February/March 2024 as the first phase of its latest bull market. Corresponding cycles in Ether would subsequently corroborate that, projecting a surge into February 2024 – when ~5-month, ~10-month, and related cycles converged…

More recent publications – in September ’23 – January ’24 – elaborated on this outlook and explained why Bitcoin should surge up to ~47,000 – ~48,000/BT, pull back to ~38,000/BT, and then surge above 56,000 with a likely spike above 60,000/BT – leading into cycle highs in late-February/early-March 2024.

It surged to 49,021/BT and then pulled back to 38,589/BT, setting the stage for a February surge that could easily involve a spike above 60,000/BT…

Gold & Silver remain in wide corrective patterns with Silver holding intra-year trend support for over a month as Gold begins to rally after completing a larger-magnitude ‘a-b-c’ correction from the early-Dec ’23 spike high. A daily close above 2060.0/GCJ is needed to trigger a new advance.

That would reinforce the outlook for a new rally as Gold remains in the upper extremes of its 1 – 2 year uptrend, 3 – 5 year trading range and 8 – 10 year uptrend on the verge of an upside breakout in 2024…

1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders and investors can be entering/adding to long positions in Gold & Silver at 2000 – 2030/GCJ & 22.50 – 23.50/SIK… risk weekly closes below the mid-Feb. lows.

The XAU & HUI would not turn positive until daily closes above 109.00/XAU & 210.50/HUI. The monthly 21 MACs & 21 MARCs turn more favorable in March/April 2024 so a new 2 – 3 month rally could begin soon.

1 – 3 month traders & investors can now enter long positions in related instruments (ETFs, stocks, etc.) and risk/exit on a weekly close below 102.30/XAU.“

February 28, 2024, Weekly Re-Lay Alert TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

03-02-24 – “Gold & Silver remain in wide trading ranges with Silver holding intra-year trend support for 6 consecutive weeks as Gold begins to rally after completing a larger-magnitude ‘a-b-c’ correction from the early-Dec ’23 spike high.

Gold remains in the upper extremes of its 1 – 2 year uptrend, 3 – 5 year trading range and 8 – 10 year uptrend on the verge of an upside breakout that has just been initially signaled with Gold setting its highest weekly close in history.

Gold continues to trace out a bullish weekly & monthly 21 MAC scenario. On a weekly basis, Gold’s October – Dec. ’23 surge had it completing an initial reversal – closing above its weekly 21 High MAC and surging to 2 – 3 month upside targets as it turned the direction of that 21 MAC up.

That is often followed by a reaction back to its weekly 21 Low MAC as a market traces out a larger-magnitude wave ‘2’ in an ‘a-b-c’ structure. Gold did exactly that as it retraced to its now-ascending weekly 21 Low MAC (2000.6/GCJ) on February 14 and immediately rebounded, preventing its intra-year trend from turning down.

Its weekly trend pattern also signaled a low at that time. (That coincided with Gold holding above its rising monthly 21 High MAC – a very bullish pattern.) Gold quickly rallied and closed this past week above its ascending weekly 21 High MAC – projecting a rally to new highs and beyond.

Based on multiple wave objectives (rally from Oct ’23 low = Oct ’22 – May ’23 rally; rally from Feb ’24 low = Oct – Dec ’23 rally, etc.), Gold could see a surge to ~2300/GCJ in the coming months. It is also a pair of long-term wave objectives and would allow the current advance (from Sept/Oct 2022) to double the magnitude of the 2015 – 2018 advance and be .786 (2DGR) the magnitude of the 2018 – 2020 rally.

Additionally, April Gold has traded in consistent ~150.0/GCJ ranges since November 2022, with parameters at ~1850, ~2000 & ~2150/GCJ. If it breaks out to the upside, as expected, the next range trading target would be ~2300.0/GCJ…

On a 1 – 2 week basis, a surge back to ~2170/GCJ – where Gold’s weekly LHR intersects its all-time intraday peak and range target – appears likely. If it does that in the coming week, Gold would provide a perfect form of symmetry – first declining for ~22 weeks from ~2160 to ~1860/GCJ and then rallying for ~22 weeks, from ~1860 back up to ~2160/GCJ.

As reiterated last week, Gold has its own ~2-Year Cycle (similar to, but distinct from, stock indexes) that previously triggered a sharp rally from mid-February into early-March 2022… and a sharp rally from mid-February into mid-March 2020. 2024 is repeating that cycle/pattern!

Silver needs a weekly close above 23.76/SIK to reverse the weekly trend up & confirm a multi-month bottom. That would also generate a range-trading signal with targets at ~25.25 & ~26.75/SIK. Silver turned its weekly 21 MAC up but needs a weekly close above ~24.40/SIK to validate.

1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders and investors could have entered/added to long positions in Gold & Silver around 2025/GCJ & 23.00/SIK and can now risk daily closes below the mid-Feb. lows. TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

Gold & Silver are fulfilling projections for a surge into early-March, mimicking the movement of the same time period in 2020 & 2022 (2-Year Cycle) as well as a host of corroborating signals.

As stated on February 24th, “Similar to late-Nov/early-Dec ’23 (~3-month/~90-degree cycle) & late-Feb/early-March ’22 (~2-Year Cycle), Gold & Silver could see abrupt 2 – 3 week surges.”

That is what is unfolding…

The XAU & HUI retested their October ’23 lows and initially held, providing the potential for a new multi-month rally to follow. They appear poised to surge in the coming weeks, in sync with their monthly 21 MACs & 21 MARCs that turn more favorable in March/April 2024.

The action of the past 3 weeks has been similar to the three weeks leading into early-March 2023, before the XAU embarked on a 5-week surge. In both cases, the XAU suffered a final sharp sell-off for ~2 weeks, bounced, then retested that low ~2 weeks later.

In 2023, that subsequently led to an initial surge of ~16.00/XAU points during the first 7 trading days and then an overall advance of ~35.00/ XAU points over a ~5-week period.

Could 2024 see anything similar?

The most bullish thing the XAU could do in March is to rally and close the month above 126.30/XAU. That would turn the intra-year trend up (closing above the January ’24 high) at the same time it is closing above its descending monthly 21 High MAC.

If that occurs, the monthly 21 High MAC would almost assuredly turn up in April ’24 – a textbook reversal sequence – since the inversely-correlated 21 High MARC plunges to 114.97/XAU in April ’24. On a near-term basis, a rally above 115.00/XAU – in the coming week – would turn multiple indicators positive and likely trigger more upside momentum.

1 – 3 month traders & investors can be entering long positions in related instruments (ETFs, stocks, etc.) when the XAU is at 107.00 down to 102.30. Risk/exit on a weekly close below 102.30/XAU.“

March 2, 2024, Weekly Re-Lay TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

03-06-24 – “For the past ~18 months, INSIIDE Track & the Weekly Re-Lay have detailed why & how Gold should bottom in late-2022, trace out some initial ‘1-2’, ‘1-2’ wave formations in 2023, and ultimately break out to the upside in 2024.

Part of that outlook had to do with the ‘lifting’ of Dollar & interest rate burdens – ushering in a ‘Sweet Spot’ for these metals to surge.

As described in the excerpt on page 2 (from the April 11, 2023 The Bridge – Gold, Silver & Elliott Wave Structure), the late-2022 cycle low in Gold & Silver – and corresponding peak in the US Dollar – coincided with the true peak in inflation.

However, the pressure of continuing interest rate hikes – until inflation had declined and neared the Fed’s target range – would still contain Gold & Silver rallies as they steadily trace out those initial rallies and pullbacks, creating the foundation from which a breakout rally would likely occur in 2024.

It would only be when the general consensus removed the likelihood of any additional rate hikes that Gold & Silver would likely enter the accelerated phases of new bull markets.

Inflation would still be in the markets and the economy, and its impact has been supporting Gold & Silver for the past ~16 – 18 months, but the major ‘headwind’ needed to be removed before a breakout advance would be most likely in metals.

On an intermediate basis, Gold would have its best chance for an accelerated advance when another competitor – cryptocurrency – was nearing the end of its accelerated advance… allowing room for the anti-Dollar baton to be passed to Gold.

That coincided with weekly & monthly 21 MAC & 21 MARC action & setups, daily & weekly cycles, and even the 2-Year Cycle – all of which were projecting a sharp move higher in late-February/early-March 2024. That is another affirmation to the scenario that has been forecast to take hold in 2022 – 2025… and beyond.

In late-2022, the US Dollar Index set a multi-year peak while the pair of ‘anti-Dollar’ antagonists – Bitcoin & Gold (digital & hard currency) – set multi-year lows.

As described back then, this ushered in the next phase of the 40-Year Cycle of Currency Wars and should trigger major advances in cryptos and Gold – from 4Q 2022 into 4Q 2025…

The previous phase – of that 40-Year Cycle – had culminated in 2016 – 2021, when Gold and related anti-Dollar ‘currency’ were projected to undergo an initial 4 – 5 year advance.

2016 – 2020/21 was forecast to see a new surge in Gold, but nothing close to the magnitude of the 1976 – 1980 advance. It was merely the first phase of a larger overall advance in Gold.

The second phase has been forecast to unfold during the opening years of this new 40-Year Cycle (2022 – 2025… and potentially longer).

Related cycles projected that plunge to last into at least September 2022. That would create a bottom from which a new multi-year bull market would emerge. As stated in September 2022:

9-08-22 – “September 2022 could time a critical shift in the overall ‘Currency War Cycle’. While that does not necessarily imply it will mark an extreme high or low in any specific combatant (in this ‘war’), it could trigger some surprise counter-trend moves that begin to reshape perspectives.

One important factor, that could help trigger an intermediate shift, involves the US Dollar Index. It signaled a multi-year bottom in 1Q ‘21 and has been on track to surge above 110.0/DX ever since. It just reached that upside target…”

All of this coincided with the Dollar Index reaching major, 10 – 15 year upside targets and completing a textbook 5-wave advance from its 2008 bottom. That set the stage for a new decline – from late-2022 (the fulfillment of multiple 7-Year & 14-Year Cycles)… And that was, and still is, expected to usher in major advances in Gold, Silver & Cryptos… as well as some other fiat currencies.

On Friday, March 1st, 2024, Gold set its highest weekly close of all time. Since then, it has progressively set daily record high closes. The breakout is underway!

As with most breakouts, this is expected to be a multi-stepped process beginning with this initial breakout and then a pullback to test breakout support.

An example of this, on a much different level, just took place in Silver on the daily charts. Since January 5th, Silver had repeatedly bumped up against multi-week resistance near 23.75/SIK. On March 4th, it surged and closed above that resistance – signaling an initial breakout on a 1 – 2 month basis.

It quickly tested ~24.40/SIK – an initial upside target – and then retraced to 23.785/SIK today, retesting that breakout resistance (now support) and then entering a new surge. On a multi-year basis, Gold could do something similar in the coming weeks and months. The specifics will be laid out in this, and forthcoming, publications…

Bitcoin & Ether are fulfilling multi-month & 1 – 2 year upside objectives with Bitcoin fulfilling multiple cycles that projected rallies from November 2022, September 2023 and late-January 2024 – into the first two weeks of March 2024. The ideal time for a peak is on March 7 – 14th. Bitcoin has just attacked its all-time high, fulfilling the minimum objective for key wave projections.

While it could easily see a spike above that level – as a crescendo to this ~16-month advance – the timing is right (and ripe) for a peak to take hold by/before mid-March 2024. Traders can begin to lighten up on long positions but should not do anything more aggressive until a top is signaled.

Gold & Silver are surging after Silver held intra-year trend support for 6 consecutive weeks as Gold completed a larger-magnitude ‘a-b-c’ correction from the early-Dec ’23 spike high… and then both triggered new buy signals in mid-February. Gold is validating the bullish weekly & monthly 21 MAC scenario that has been developing in recent weeks & months.

That is also a pair of long-term wave objectives and would allow the current advance (from Sept/Oct 2022) to double the magnitude of the 2015 – 2018 advance and be .786 (2DGR) the magnitude of the 2018 – 2020 rally.

On a 1 – 2 week basis, a surge back to ~2170/GCJ – where Gold’s weekly LHR intersects its all-time intraday peak and range target – appears likely. (Related daily extremes could spur a spike as high as 2210 – 2220/ GCJ in the short term. The latest 3 daily LHRs are grouped at 2202 – 2212/GCJ.)

If it does that in the coming days, Gold would provide a perfect form of symmetry – first declining for ~22 weeks from ~2160 to ~1860/GCJ and then rallying for ~22 weeks, from ~1860 back up to ~2160/GCJ. (That is a type of minimum objective. Since Gold is perceived to be in an intensifying uptrend, it should overshoot those target levels.)

Silver needs a weekly close above 23.76/SIK to reverse the weekly trend up & confirm a multi-month bottom. That would also generate a range-trading signal with targets at ~25.25 & ~26.75/SIK. Silver turned its weekly 21 MAC up last week but needs a weekly close above ~24.40/SIK to validate.

That is exactly where Silver’s initial surge peaked (before the pullback to daily breakout resistance turned into support), reinforcing the significance of that upside target/resistance. A weekly close above 24.56/SIK would magnify developing strength, allowing Silver to turn its intra-year trend up.

Daily extremes in Silver would allow for a spike up to 25.61 – 25.78/SIK in the short term.

An initial surge into March 6 – 8th was expected to unfold and is now being fulfilled. The intra-month trends have turned up, so additional upside is likely in the coming days. In addition, the current front month of Gold (April ’24) just closed above the high set in early-December ’23 (in the front month at that time).

The XAU & HUI retested their October ’23 lows in late-February and held, providing further validation to the 12.5 – 13.0 month cycle that bottomed at that time (see HCP diagram on page 4) and analysis for a new multi-month rally to follow. They were/are poised to surge in the current/coming weeks, in sync with their monthly 21 MACs & 21 MARCs.

The action of the past 3 weeks has been similar to the three weeks leading into early-March 2023, before the XAU embarked on a 5-week surge.

In both cases, the XAU suffered a final sharp sell-off for ~2 weeks, bounced, then retested that low ~2 weeks later. In 2023, that subsequently led to an initial surge of ~16.00/XAU points during the first 7 trading days and then an overall advance of ~35.00/XAU points over a ~5-week period.

2024 is poised to see something similar.

On a near-term basis, a rally above 115.00/XAU was expected to turn multiple indicators positive – which is now unfolding – and will likely trigger more upside momentum while confirming the buy signal triggered at 106.00 down to 102.60/XAU.

1 – 3 month traders & investors could have entered long positions in related instruments (ETFs, stocks, etc.) when the XAU was at 106.00 down to 102.60 in late-February in line with the strategy published at that time. Risk/exit on a weekly close below 108.00/XAU“

March 6, 2024, Weekly Re-Lay Alert

03-09-24 – “Gold & Silver are surging in sync with their 2-Year Cycle & mid-February buy signals… Gold & Silver are surging after Silver held intra-year trend support for 6 consecutive weeks as Gold completed a larger-magnitude ‘a-b-c’ correction from the early-Dec ’23 spike high… and then both triggered new buy signals in mid-February.

Gold is validating the bullish weekly & monthly 21 MAC scenario that had developed in January & February, projecting a breakout surge in March.

Based on multiple wave objectives (rally from Oct ’23 low = Oct ’22 – May ’23 rally; rally from Feb ’24 low = Oct – Dec ’23 rally, etc.), Gold is still likely to see a surge to ~2300/GCJ in the coming months (or weeks).

With Gold’s action of the past week (surging to its weekly LHR and closing above that level), it could reach ~2300/GCJ in the next 1 – 2 weeks. That is reinforced by the fact it closed above its early-December peak… even on a contract basis…

Silver reversed the weekly trend up, further confirming that a multi-month bottom is likely intact. That also generated a range-trading signal with targets at ~25.25 & ~26.75/SIK.

Silver turned its weekly 21 MAC up last week and then closed above that rising 21 High MAC this past week – reinforcing the unfolding upward reversal.

An initial surge into March 6 – 8th was expected to unfold and was fulfilled. The intra-month trends have turned up, so additional upside is likely in the coming week(s).

1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders and investors could have entered/added to long positions in Gold & Silver around 2025/GCJ & 23.00/SIK and can now risk daily closes below the March 1st lows. Exit 1/2 of Gold positions if/when 2294/GCJ is hit and 1/2 of Silver positions if/when 27.15/SIK is hit. TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

1 – 5 day Outlook:

Gold & Silver are fulfilling projections for a surge in early-March, mimicking the movement of the same time period in 2020 & 2022 (2-Year Cycle) as well as a host of corroborating signals.

As stated on February 24th, “Similar to late-Nov/early-Dec ’23 (~3-month/~90-degree cycle) & late-Feb/early-March ’22 (~2-Year Cycle), Gold & Silver could see abrupt 2 – 3 week surges.”

That is what is unfolding and both metals fulfilled the outlook for surges into ~March 8th. Along with that, Gold was expected to “spur a spike as high as 2210 – 2220/GCJ in the short term. The latest 3 daily LHRs are grouped at 2202 – 2212/GCJ.” It spiked up to 2203/GCJ on March 8th.

Having turned the intra-month trends up, Gold & Silver have opened up the opportunity for this rally to extend into mid-March or beyond. Daily extremes in Silver would allow for a spike up to 25.61 – 25.78/SIK in the short term.

The XAU & HUI surged higher, confirming the outside-week/2 Close Reversal buy signals they generated on March 1st after retesting their October ’23 lows in late-February. Those recent lows added validation to the 12.5 – 13.5-month cycle that bottomed in October ’23 and projected a new 7 – 9 month advance to follow.

They were/are poised to surge in the current/ coming weeks, in sync with their monthly 21 MACs & 21 MARCs. That is what is now taking place.

The action of the past 4 weeks has been similar to the weeks leading into and beyond early-March 2023, as the XAU embarked on a 5-week surge.

2024 was projected to see something similar.

On a near-term basis, a rally above 115.00/XAU was expected to turn multiple indicators positive – which has now unfolded – and will likely trigger more upside momentum while confirming the buy signal triggered at 106.00 down to 102.60/XAU.

March 9, 2024, Weekly Re-Lay TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

03-13-24 – Wave Duration Symmetry

Since the August 2020 peak in Gold – the initial fulfillment of its 40-Year Cycle shift that projected (way back in 2014/2015) a major advance in 2016 through late-2020/early-2021 – Gold & Silver have experienced 4 primary moves of 27 – 29/30 weeks in duration.

Two of those were declines and two of those were advances. There were other moves, or extensions of those trends, but the most noteworthy ones were those 4. The current advance – starting from the early-October ’23 low – has the potential to make it a 5th.

As is usually the case, that potential would not be discussed if it were not for the synergy of several other cycles & timing indicators – identifying similar potential.

[This ~27 – 29-week cycle is the midpoint of the nearly-ubiquitous 54 – 59-week/~12.5 – ~13.5-month cycle that has governed Gold for over a decade. That is the same cycle that came back into play in early-October 2023 – linked to the previous lows in September 2022 & August 2021 – and pinpointed another major bottom.]

Another 27 – 29-week advance would culminate in the month of April, with the greatest synergy of reinforcing cycles on April 12 – 19, 2024.

For starters, that would have the crescendo of a major advance coinciding with the Date of Aggression (April 19th) – a time when other significant peaks have been seen in Gold & Silver.

More important is a ~19-wk low (March ’23) – high (July 17-21 ’23) – high (Nov 27 – Dec 1 ’23) – (high; April 8 – 15 (-19), ’24) Cycle Progression that also culminates at that time.

A rally into April 15 – 19, ’24 would create some wave symmetry with Gold & Silver rallying for ~9 weeks, correcting for ~10 weeks, and then (potentially) rallying for ~9 weeks again… into April 15 – 19th. Combined, those three swings would create a 28-week advance from the early-October 2023 low.

An intervening high on March 15/18th – which is expected – would create a ~1-month/~30-degree low (Nov 13 – 18, ’23) – low (Dec 13 – 18, ’23) – low (Jan 13 – 18, ’24) – low (Feb 13 – 18, ’24) – (high; March 13 – 18, ’24) – (high; April 13 – 18, ’24) Cycle Progression… in which intermediate lows and then highs were set in the days surrounding mid-month – a textbook pattern.

[If that is going to be the case, and Gold & Silver are nearing the peak of this latest ~30-day cycle, there could still be some acceleration to the upside in the coming days – reinforcing the 90/10 Rule of Cycles. This is reinforced by the fact Gold has recently broken out to new all-time highs, exceeding the triple top that was created in 2020 – 2023.]

All of this is powerfully validating much of what was described almost a year ago – involving projections for a new multi-year advance in Gold & Silver (from their late-2022 lows).

As described in the excerpt on page 2 (from the April 11, 2023 The Bridge – Gold, Silver & Elliott Wave Structure), the late-2022 cycle low in Gold & Silver – and coinciding peak in the US Dollar – would usher in the first phase of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency Wars… in 2022 – 2025.

All of this coincided with the Dollar Index reaching major, 10 – 15 year upside targets and completing a textbook 5-wave advance from its 2008 bottom.

And it also coincided with an initial peak in inflation – and later in interest rates – ushering in the ‘sweet spot’ for Silver (and Gold), when inflationary pressures are supporting metals but the burdensome threat of increasing interest rate hikes dissipates.

That set the stage for a new decline in the US Dollar – from late-2022 (the fulfillment of multiple 7-Year & 14-Year Cycles)… And that was expected to usher in major advances in Gold, Silver & Cryptos…

Based on multiple wave objectives (rally from Oct ’23 low = Oct ’22 – May ’23 rally; rally from Feb ’24 low = Oct – Dec ’23 rally, etc.), Gold is still likely to see a surge to ~2300/GCJ as part of its latest primary advance.

Additionally, April Gold has traded in consistent ~150.0/GCJ ranges since November 2022, with parameters at ~1850, ~2000 & ~2150/GCJ. The next range trading target is at ~2300.0/GCJ.

With Gold’s action of last week (surging to its weekly LHR and closing above that level), it could reach ~2300/GCJ between now and March 22nd. That is reinforced by the fact it closed above its early-December peak on a contract basis.

Silver reversed the weekly trend up, further confirming that a multi-month bottom is likely intact. That also generated a range-trading signal with targets at ~25.25 & ~26.75/SIK. Silver turned its weekly 21 MAC up and then closed above that rising 21 High MAC last week – reinforcing the unfolding upward reversal.

A weekly close above 24.56/SIK would magnify developing strength, allowing Silver to turn its intra-year trend up. That would likely spur a surge to ~27.25/SIK – where several extreme (intermediate) upside targets converge. Daily extremes in Silver would allow for a spike up to 25.61 – 25.78/SIK in the short term, which has nearly been fulfilled.

1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders and investors could have entered/added to long positions in Gold & Silver around 2025/GCJ & 23.00/SIK and can now risk daily closes below 2110/GCJ & 24.22/SIK. Exit 1/2 of Gold positions if/when 2294/GCJ is hit and 1/2 of Silver positions if/when 27.15/SIK is hit. TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

In sync with their monthly 21 MACs & 21 MARCs, the XAU & HUI projected surges in March ’24… that have since unfolded. The action of the past 4 weeks has been similar to the weeks leading into and beyond early-March 2023, as the XAU embarked on a 5-week surge.

In both cases, the XAU suffered a final sharp sell-off for ~2 weeks, bounced, then retested that low ~2 weeks later. In 2023, that subsequently led to an overall advance of ~35.00/XAU points over a ~5-week period.

2024 was projected to see something similar.

On a 1 – 2 week basis, the XAU is showing a chance for a surge that could spike as high as 134 – 138.00 and would powerfully confirm the buy signal triggered at 106.00 down to 102.60/XAU. That is where extreme upside targets exist in the coming week(s) and is where the monthly 21 High MARC exists in March 2024.

March 13, 2024, Weekly Re-Lay Alert

03-16-24 – “Gold & Silver are surging in sync with their mid-February buy signals and could see further acceleration… Gold & Silver are surging after Silver held intra-year trend support for 6 consecutive weeks as Gold completed a larger-magnitude ‘a-b-c’ correction from the early-Dec ’23 spike high… and then both triggered new buy signals in mid-February.

That is also where a pair of long-term wave objectives converge and would allow the current advance (from Sept/Oct 2022) to double the magnitude of the 2015 – 2018 advance and be .786 (2DGR) the magnitude of the 2018 – 2020 rally.

Additionally, April Gold has traded in consistent ~150.0/GCJ ranges since November 2022, with parameters at ~1850, ~2000 & ~2150/GCJ. The next range trading target is at ~2300.0/GCJ.

With Gold’s action of last week (surging to its weekly LHR and closing above that level), it could reach ~2300/GCJ by March 22nd and could set a 1 – 2 month peak by March 29th.

The next two weeks (March 18 – 29th, ’24) also represent the midpoint of the ~7-month low-high-high-high-high Cycle Progression that pinpointed the early-Dec ’23 peak and projects a subsequent peak in July 2024. As described since that early-Dec ’23 peak, an intervening high in late-March 2024 would reinforce that overall cyclic scenario.

Silver continues to confirm the late-January & mid-February lows as well as subsequent range-trading signals with targets at ~26.75 & ~28.25/SIK. Silver turned its weekly 21 MAC up and then closed above that rising 21 High MAC on March 8th – reinforcing the unfolding upward reversal.

It just gave a corroborating weekly close above 24.56/SIK, turning its intra-year trend up. That is still likely to spur a surge to at least ~27.25/SIK – where several extreme (intermediate) upside targets converge. (If it enters an accelerated surge in the coming week, it could spike above 28.00/SIK.) A peak in the coming week(s) would complete three successive advances of 8 – 9 weeks in duration.

The minimum wave target for this rally – where the advance from mid-February would equal the magnitude of the advance from October – December ’23 – is at 27.37/SIK. That is also where Silver peaked in May 2023 – magnifying its significance.

1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders and investors could have entered/added to long positions in Gold & Silver at averages of 2025/GCJ & 23.00/SIK and can now risk daily closes below 2120/GCJ & 24.22/ SIK. Exit 1/2 of Gold positions if/when 2294/GCJ is hit and 1/2 of Silver if/when 27.35/SIK is hit. “ TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

March 16, 2024, Weekly Re-Lay

03-20-24 – “Gold & Silver are surging after Silver held intra-year trend support for 6 consecutive weeks as Gold completed a larger-magnitude ‘a-b-c’ correction from the early-Dec ’23 spike high… and then both triggered new buy signals in mid-February.

The current week’s LHR is at 2302/GCJ, reinforcing that potential. Monday’s low corroborated that, producing an Intermediate LLH objective at 2302/ GCJ (1996 – 2149 – 2302/GCJ).

Additionally, April Gold has traded in consistent ~150.0/GCJ ranges since November 2022, with parameters at ~1850, ~2000 & ~2150/GCJ. The next range trading target is at ~2300.0/GCJ.

With Gold’s action of last week (surging to its weekly LHR and closing above that level), it could reach ~2300/GCJ by March 22nd…

It gave a corroborating weekly close above 24.56/SIK, turning its intra-year trend up. That projects a surge to at least ~27.25/SIK – where several extreme (multi-week) upside targets converge. A spike above 28.00/ SIK – the weekly LHR – is not out of the question…

1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders and investors could have entered/added to long positions in Gold & Silver at averages of 2025/GCJ & 23.00/SIK and can now risk daily closes below 2149/GCJ & 24.80/SIK. Exit 1/2 of Gold positions if/when 2294/GCJ is hit and 1/2 of Silver if/when 27.35/SIK is hit. TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

The XAU & HUI are surging higher, confirming the outside-week/2 Close Reversal buy signals they generated on March 1st after retesting their October ’23 lows in late-February. The XAU remains capable of surging above 137.00/XAU on an intermediate basis.

On a 1 – 2 week basis, the XAU reinforced that – showing the potential for a surge that could spike as high as 134 – 138.00… and powerfully confirm the buy signal triggered at 106.00 down to 102.60/XAU.

That is where extreme upside targets exist in the current week(s) and is where the monthly 21 High MARC exists in March 2024. The latest two weekly LHRs are at 134.18 & 134.52/XAU.

March 20, 2024, Weekly Re-Lay Alert

03-23-24 – “Gold & Silver remain bullish and could see further acceleration into late-March/early-April ’24… Gold & Silver are consolidating after surging above 2150 – 2170/GCJ (Dec ’23 highs) and attacking initial targets near 2210 – 2220/GCJ. That breakout level (2150 – 2170/GC) is now support.

Based on multiple wave objectives (rally from Oct ’23 low = Oct ’22 – May ’23 rally; rally from Feb ’24 low = Oct – Dec ’23 rally, etc.), Gold is still likely to see a surge to ~2300/GCJ (~2320/GCM) as part of its latest primary advance – an advance that could extend into mid-April 2024.

The latest two week’s LHRs are 2294 & 2302/GCJ, reinforcing that potential. Monday’s low corroborated that, producing an Intermediate LLH objective at 2302/GCJ (1996 – 2149 – 2302/GCJ).

That is also where a pair of long-term wave targets converge and the latest range-trading target after Gold’s break about 2150/GC.

Silver has related range-trading targets at ~26.75 & ~28.25/SIK. After surging to new intra-year highs, Silver just pulled back to its rising daily AND weekly 21 High MAC – the ideal setup for a new rally.

The minimum wave target for this rally – where the latest advance would equal the 4Q ’23 advance – is 27.37/SIK. That is also where Silver peaked in May ‘23 – magnifying its significance. Weekly LHRs are at 2772 – 2809/SIK, so a spike to that range is likely.

1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders and investors could have entered/added to long positions in Gold & Silver at averages of 2025/GCJ & 23.00/SIK and can now risk daily closes below 2149/GCJ & 24.58/ SIK. Exit 1/2 of Gold positions if/when 2294/GCJ is hit and 1/2 of Silver if/when 27.65/SIK is hit. TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

The XAU & HUI surged in line with their monthly 21 MACs & 21 MARCs. The action of the past 5 weeks has been similar to the weeks leading into and beyond early-March 2023, when the XAU embarked on a 5-week surge.

In both cases, the XAU suffered a final sharp sell-off for ~2 weeks, bounced, then retested that low ~2 weeks later. In 2023, that led to an overall advance of ~35.00/XAU points over a ~5-week period.

2024 was projected to see something similar.

That could spur a surge above 137.00/XAU – leading into April 1 – 5th (7 weeks from the initial low and 5 weeks from the retest low). On a near-term basis, the XAU is reinforcing that – showing the potential for a surge that could spike as high as 134 – 138.00… and powerfully confirm the buy signal triggered at 106.00 down to 102.60/XAU.

That is where extreme upside targets exist in the coming week(s) and is where the monthly 21 High MARC exists in March 2024. The latest three weekly LHRs are at 131.52 – 134.52/XAU.

1 – 3 month traders & investors could have entered long positions in related instruments (ETFs, stocks, etc.) when the XAU was at 106.00 down to 102.60 in late-February. Risk/exit on a daily close below 115.40/XAU. Exit 1/2 of these positions if/when 134.00/XAU is hit.“ TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

March 23, 2024, Weekly Re-Lay

03-27-24 – “Gold & Silver are consolidating after surging above 2150 – 2170/GCJ (Dec ’23 highs) and attacking initial targets near 2210 – 2220/GCJ. That breakout level (2150 – 2170/GC) is now support.

Based on multiple wave objectives, Gold is still likely to see a surge to ~2300/GCJ (~2320/GCM) as part of its latest primary advance – an advance that could extend into mid-April 2024.

The latest two week’s LHRs are 2294 & 2302/GCJ (2324 & 2317/GCM), reinforcing that potential. (If Gold manages to reach 2145/GCM tomorrow, it would create a 3rd consecutive weekly LHR near 2320/GCM.)

Silver maintains range-trading targets at ~26.75 & ~28.25/SIK. After surging to new intra-year highs, Silver just pulled back to its rising weekly 21 High MAC – the ideal setup for a new rally. Weekly LHRs are at 2772 – 2809/SIK, so a spike to that range is likely in April.

1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders and investors could have entered/added to long positions in Gold & Silver at averages of 2025/GCJ & 23.00/SIK and can now risk daily closes below 2149/GCJ & 24.58/SIK. Exit 1/2 of Gold positions if/when 2294/GCJ is hit and 1/2 of Silver if/when 27.65/SIK is hit.

Roll into the June Gold contract, risking a daily close below 2170/GCM. At that point, use 2316/GCM as the point to exit 1/2 of positions. TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

The XAU & HUI are surging in line with their monthly 21 MACs & 21 MARCs. The action of the past 5 weeks has been similar to the weeks leading into and beyond early-March 2023, when the XAU embarked on a 5-week surge.

2024 was projected to see something similar.

That is where extreme upside targets exist in the coming week(s). The latest three weekly LHRs are at 131.52 – 134.52/XAU. A weekly/monthly close above 126.29/XAU (tomorrow) would be one of the most bullish signals that index could trigger. Several factors could trigger a spike above 128.00/XAU tomorrow.

1 – 3 month traders & investors could have entered long positions in related instruments (ETFs, stocks, etc.) when the XAU was at 106.00 down to 102.60 in late-February. Risk/exit on a daily close below 117.40/XAU. Exit 1/2 of these positions if/when 134.00/XAU is hit.“ TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

March 27, 2024, Weekly Re-Lay Alert

03-30-24 – “Gold & Silver remain bullish and could see further acceleration…

Gold & Silver are resuming their rallies after Gold surged to initial upside targets and then pulled back to its breakout level (2150 – 2170/GC) – a textbook example of resistance turned into support.

Based on multiple wave objectives (rally from Oct ’23 low = Oct ’22 – May ’23 rally; rally from Feb ’24 low = Oct – Dec ’23 rally, etc.), Gold is still likely to see a surge to ~2320/GCM as part of its latest primary advance – an advance that could/should peak in the first half of April 2024. Its Intermediate LLH objective is at 2324/GCM.

That is also where a pair of long-term wave targets converge and the latest range-trading target after Gold’s break about 2150/GC. Those are all minimum upside targets. Monthly resistance and the latest weekly LHR could stretch this rally to 2333 – 2342/GCM with a brief spike above that level possible before a multi-week top takes hold.

Silver maintains range-trading targets at ~26.75 & ~28.25/SIK. After surging to new intra-year highs, Silver just pulled back to its rising weekly 21 High MAC – the ideal setup for a new rally. The minimum wave target for this rally – where the latest advance would equal the 4Q ’23 advance – is 27.37/SIK. That is also where Silver peaked in May ‘23 – magnifying its significance.

On a broader basis, Gold remains on track for an overall advance – from pivotal lows in October ‘22 and October ‘23 – into July 2024. That is the next phase of a ~7-month cycle that helped pinpoint the early-Dec. ‘23 peak and an overlapping ~14-month low-low-low-low-high-high (March ‘22) – high (May ‘23) – (high; July 2024) Cycle Progression.

It would also fulfill an over-arching ~28-month low (July ‘17) – low (Nov ‘19) – high (March ‘22) – (high; July 2024) Cycle Progression. At least initially, a high in 3Q 2024 would also fulfill a ~4-year high (3Q 2012) – high (3Q/July 2016) – high (3Q/Aug 2020) – (high; 3Q/July-August 2024) Cycle Progression.

1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders/investors could have entered long positions in Gold & Silver at averages of 2045/GCM (after rolling from April contract) & 23.00/SIK. Move risk/exit levels to daily closes below 2190/GCM & 24.58/SIK. Exit 1/2 of Gold positions if/when 2319/GCM is hit and 1/2 of Silver positions if/when 27.65/SIK is hit… TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

The XAU & HUI are surging in line with their monthly 21 MACs & 21 MARCs. The action of the past 5 weeks has mimicked the weeks leading into and beyond early-March 2023, when the XAU embarked on a 5-week surge. In both cases, the XAU suffered a final sharp sell-off for ~2 weeks, bounced, then retested that low ~2 weeks later. In 2023, that led to an overall advance of ~35.00/XAU points over a ~5-week period.

2024 was projected to see something similar.

That is where extreme upside targets exist in the coming week(s). The latest three weekly LHRs were at 131.52 – 134.52/XAU. while the coming week’s LHR is at 137.96/XAU, just below the monthly Raw SPR at 138.15/XAU.

In addition, the XAU fulfilled what was described all month – by closing the month above 126.29. That gave a bullish monthly 21 MAC signal while turning the intra-year trend up. A spike up to ~138.00/XAU in the coming week could subsequently usher in a few weeks of consolidation below that high.

1 – 3 month traders & investors could have entered long positions in related instruments (ETFs, stocks, etc.) when the XAU was at 102.60 – 106.00 in late-February. Risk/exit on a daily close below 119.40/ XAU. Exit 1/3 of these positions if/when 134.00/ XAU is hit & another 1/3 if/when 137.50/XAU is hit.“ TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

March 30, 2024, Weekly Re-Lay

04-03-24 – “Gold & Silver are surging in line with overriding wave timing targets, particularly in Gold (see excerpt on page 3). Based on multiple longer-term wave objectives (rally from Oct ’23 low = Oct ’22 – May ’23 rally; rally from Feb ’24 low = Oct – Dec ’23 rally, etc.).

For the past 6+ weeks, Gold had been projected to surge from ~2040 to ~2320/GCM in fulfillment of its mid-February buy signal.

That was/is the minimum upside target for this 1 – 2 month advance. Gold is attacking this level but could easily stretch this rally to 2333 – 2357/GCM (monthly resistance and weekly LHR) with a brief spike above that level possible before a multi-week top takes hold.

A more near-term wave objective – where Gold’s March/April rally would equal the magnitude of its preceding February/March ’24 rally – is at 2356.3/GCM. Daily extremes reinforce that potential.

Silver maintains range-trading targets at ~26.75 & ~28.25/SIK**. 2 of the latest 3 weekly LHRs are at 27.72 – 28.09/SIK, reinforcing that upper target. The monthly HHR (28.18/SIK) concurs. (**A longer-term range target, on multiple levels, is at 30.50 – 31.25/SI.)

The minimum wave target for this rally – where the latest advance equals the 4Q ’23 advance – is 27.37/ SIK… which is now being tested. That is also where Silver peaked in May ‘23 – a critical level of (potential) breakout resistance.

Both Gold & Silver could set initial highs this week but maintain the potential to retest them around mid-month. Price action should clarify.

[A high on April 12 – 18th would fulfill a ~1-month/~30-degree low (Nov 13 – 18, ’23) – low (Dec 13 – 18, ’23) – low (Jan 13 – 18, ’24) – low (Feb 13 – 18, ’24) – low (March 13 – 18, ’24) – (high; April 13 – 18, ’24) Cycle Progression.]

On a broader basis, Gold remains on track for an overall advance – from pivotal lows in October ‘22 and October ‘23 – into July 2024.

That is the next phase of a ~7-month cycle that helped pinpoint the early-Dec. ‘23 peak and an overlapping ~14-month low-low-low-low-high-high (March ‘22) – high (May ‘23) – (high; July 2024) Cycle Progression.

1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders/investors could have entered long positions in Gold & Silver at averages of 2045/GCM & 23.00/SIK and be holding these w/avg. open gains of about $27,000/contract & $20,000/ contract, respectively.

Move risk/exit levels to daily closes below 2280/GCM & 26.80/SIK. Exit 1/2 of Silver positions if/when 27.65/SIK is hit. 1/2 of Gold positions should have just been exited when 2319/GCM was hit – with avg. gains of about $27,000/contract. TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

The XAU & HUI are surging in line with their monthly 21 MACs & 21 MARCs.

The action of the past 6 – 7 weeks has mimicked the weeks between mid-February and mid-April 2023, when the XAU embarked on a ~5 (7)-week surge.

2024 was projected to see something similar… but potentially more powerful.

That was projected to spur a surge above 137.00/XAU – leading into April 1 – 5th (7 weeks from the initial low and 5 weeks from the retest low). The HUI rallied for 8 weeks in 2023, so a spike into next week is plausible.

On a near-term basis, the XAU is reinforcing that – showing the probability for a surge to 134 – 138.00… that would powerfully confirm the buy signal triggered at 106.00 down to 102.60/XAU.

That is where extreme upside targets exist in the current week(s). The latest three weekly LHRs were at 131.52 – 134.52/XAU. while the current week’s LHR is at 137.96/XAU, just below the monthly Raw SPR at 138.15/XAU. Broader resistance comes into play at 143 – 145.00/XAU.

In addition, the XAU fulfilled what was described all month – by closing the month above 126.29. That gave a bullish monthly 21 MAC signal while turning the intra-year trend up. A spike up to/above ~138.00/XAU in the current week could subsequently usher in a few weeks of consolidation below that high.

On a broader basis, the February ’24 low projected a higher-magnitude advance to at least 157.00/XAU, where the current rally would match the magnitude of the late-2022/early-2023 rally.

1 – 3 month traders & investors could have entered long positions in related instruments (ETFs, stocks, etc.) when the XAU was at 102.60 – 106.00 in late-February. Risk/exit on a daily close below 127.76/XAU. 1/3 of these positions can be exited now (when 134.00/XAU is hit) & another 1/3 if/when 137.50/XAU is hit. “ TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

April 3, 2024, Weekly Re-Lay Alert

04-06-24 – “Gold & Silver remain bullish and are fulfilling key aspects of their multi-month outlook for powerful surges…

Gold & Silver have surged to primary upside targets in line with overriding wave timing targets, particularly in Gold. For the past 6+ weeks, Gold had been projected to surge from ~2040 to ~2320/GCM in fulfillment of its mid-February buy signal. (Silver had a primary target of 27.37/SIK.)

That was/is the minimum upside target for this 1 – 2 month advance. In late-March, Gold showed that it would likely exceed that initial target and reach 2333 – 2357/GCM – where monthly resistance and the weekly LHR converged with daily LHRs and a near-term wave objective… at which point Gold’s March/April rally would equal the magnitude of its preceding Feb/March ’24 rally – at 2356.3/GCM.

Gold reached that combination of targets as both Gold & Silver were fulfilling daily cycles that projected rallies into April 3 – 5th.

Silver maintains range-trading targets at ~26.75 & ~28.25/SIK**. 2 of the latest 3 weekly LHRs were at 27.72 – 28.09/SIK and were nearly reached this past week. The monthly HHR (28.18/SIK) concurs. (**A longer-term range target, on multiple levels, is at 30.50 – 31.25/SI.)

Silver already met and exceeded the minimum wave target for this rally (27.37/SIK) – where the latest advance equaled the 4Q ’23 advance. That is also where Silver peaked in May ‘23 – a key level of breakout resistance. Silver closed above that level on Friday, reinforcing overall strength.

All of this action, including Gold’s test of its weekly LHR, portend a 1 – 2 month peak in the coming weeks. That dovetails with longer-term analysis, reiterated in mid-March.

In the case of Gold, a third consecutive 27 – 29-week advance projects a multi-month high in April ‘24, with the greatest synergy of reinforcing cycles on April 12 – 19, 2024…

Not surprisingly, that would have the crescendo of a major advance coinciding with the Date of Aggression (April 19th) – a time when other significant peaks have been seen in Gold & Silver.

More important is a ~19-wk low (March ’23) – high (July 17-21 ’23) – high (Nov 27 – Dec 1 ’23) – (high; April 8 – 15 (–19), ’24) Cycle Progression that also culminates at that time. Gold could spike up to its second target (2430 – 2445/GCM) at that time.

A rally into April 15 – 19, ’24 would create some wave symmetry with Gold & Silver rallying for ~9 weeks, correcting for ~10 weeks, and then (potentially) rallying for ~9 weeks again… into April 15 – 19th. Those three swings would create a 28-week advance from the early-October 2023 low.

A high on April 12 – 18th would also fulfill a ~1-month/~30-degree low (Nov 13 – 18, ’23) – low (Dec 13 – 18, ’23) – low (Jan 13 – 18, ’24) – low (Feb 13 – 18, ’24) – low (March 13 – 18, ’24) – (high; April 13 – 18, ’24) Cycle Progression.

1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders/investors could have entered long positions in Gold & Silver at averages of 2045/GCM & 23.00/SIK and be holding these w/avg. open gains of about $30,000/contract & $22,500/contract, respectively.

1/2 of Gold positions should have just been exited when 2319/GCM was hit – with avg. gains of about $27,000/contract. Exit 1/2 of Silver positions now. Move risk/exit levels on remaining positions to daily closes below 2280/GCM & 26.40/SIK. TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

1 – 5 day Outlook:

Gold & Silver fulfilled projections for a surge to/above 2320.GCM & 27.37/SIK and remain on track to set a 1 – 2 month peak in April ’24. They could extend this advance into April 15 – 19th, with or without a brief pullback in the interim.

The XAU & HUI are surging in line with their monthly 21 MACs & 21 MARCs. The action of the past 7 weeks has mimicked the weeks between mid-February and mid-April 2023, when the XAU embarked on a ~5 & ~7-week surge.

2024 was projected to see something similar… but potentially more powerful.

That was projected to spur a surge to ~137.00/ XAU leading into April 5th (7 weeks from the initial low and 5 weeks from the retest low). It made it to 136.76/XAU on April 5th!

That also had it fulfilling multiple other indicators and objectives – projecting a surge to 134 – 138.00 in this time frame. That is where four consecutive weekly LHRs converged (131.52 – 137.96/XAU) – just below the monthly Raw SPR at 138.15/XAU.

On a broader basis, the February ’24 low projected a higher-magnitude advance to at least 157.00/ XAU, where the current rally would match the magnitude of the late-2022/early-2023 rally.

1 – 3 month traders & investors could have entered long positions in related instruments (ETFs, stocks, etc.) when the XAU was at 102.60 – 106.00 in late-February and exited 1/3 of those positions when 134.00/XAU was hit this past week. Another 1/3 can be exited if/when 138.00/XAU is hit. Move sell stops to exit if/when a daily close below 131.80/XAU.“ TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

April 6, 2024, Weekly Re-Lay

04-10-24 – “As explained throughout the past year, October 2023 ushered in the latest ‘Sweet Spot’ for Silver (& Gold) from an inflationary perspective.

The U.S. economy has seen fit to create a ‘Sweet-er Spot’… perhaps the ‘Sweet-est Spot’. Today’s CPI report reinforced that. Here’s why:

At least up to this point (never say never), the Fed has not even thought of discussing any additional rate hikes in the foreseeable future – leaving the sweet spot intact for Silver. Up until now, the thinking has been that all the preceding hikes would start to slow down the economy and eventually bring inflation back down to the Fed’s magical ~2% level. That hasn’t happened.

If it was happening, it would probably be the result of a slowing economy… which would also start to take some of the shine off Silver, at least from an inflationary-hedge perspective. Instead, Silver & Gold get the best of both worlds – persistent inflation combined with little or no threat of rising interest rates.

As explained before, the onset of an inflationary period – like that seen in 2021/2022 – is often a struggle for markets like Silver since their inflationary appeal is offset by – sometimes bludgeoned by – the continuing threat of rising interest rates (to combat that inflation).

However, when that interest rate hiking cycle is complete – but inflationary pressures remain (even if they are not escalating as quickly as they had before) – it creates an ideal situation for Silver (and Gold) to surge. That optimum scenario began in 4Q 2023… when the talk and focus began to shift to ‘when will interest rates be cut?’.

If that wasn’t enough, an explosive geopolitical event took place in the Middle East in early-October 2023 – perfectly fulfilling a myriad of long-term cycles (all focused on 2023, 4Q 2023 and/or August – October 2023) that had anticipated this for years.

https://www.insiidetracktrading.com/wp-content/ uploads/Middle-East-War-Cycles-in-Late-2023.pdf

The latest phase of this ‘Perfect Storm’ – of Silver & Gold bullish factors – was ushered in along with the new Natural Year on March 19/20, 2024.

At that time, Gold completed its ‘ii’ wave correction while retesting breakout support and its month-opening range support and began a new advance – projected to last into the middle half of April and take Gold above 2320/GCM.

Soon after, Silver corroborated that in late-March and began a rally projected to reach 28.25/SIK (and ultimately exceed 30.00/SI). The Fed’s PCE report reinforced that and spurred a surge into the CPI report as the fundamentals keep showing that inflation remains alive and well… but not scary enough to warrant talk of any new rate hikes…

That was/is the minimum upside target for this 1 – 2 month advance. In late-March, Gold showed it would likely exceed that initial target and reach 2333 – 2357/GCM.

Gold has reached that combination of targets as Silver surged to its own combination of targets at 28.09 – 28.25/SIK (range-trading target, weekly LHR, monthly HHR). (**A longer-term range target, on multiple levels, is at 30.50 – 31.25/SI.)

All of this action, including Gold’s test of its weekly LHR last week, portend a 1 – 2 month peak in the coming weeks. That dovetails with longer-term analysis, reiterated in mid-March (see page 4).

However, price action needs to signal when an intermediate peak is taking hold. Gold has initially fulfilled a ~19-wk low (March ’23) – high (July 17-21 ’23) – high (Nov 27 – Dec 1 ’23) – (high; April 8 – 15 (–19), ’24) Cycle Progression but competing cycles and wave objectives could still spur higher highs in April.

1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders/investors could have entered long positions in Gold & Silver at averages of 2045/GCM & 23.00/SIK and be holding 1/2 of these positions w/avg. open gains of about $30,000/contract & $25,000/contract, respectively. Move risk/exit levels to daily closes below 2280/GCM & 26.40/SIK. TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

The other 1/2 of Gold positions should have been exited when 2319/GCM was hit – with avg. gains of about $27,000/contract – and in Silver at the start of this week with avg. gains of about $23,000/contract.

The XAU & HUI have surged in line with their monthly 21 MACs & 21 MARCs. The action of the past 7 weeks mimicked the weeks between mid-February and mid-April 2023, when the XAU embarked on a ~5 & ~7-week surge.

2024 was projected to see something similar… but potentially more powerful.

That was projected to spur a surge to ~137.00/XAU leading into April 5th (7 weeks from the initial low and 5 weeks from the retest low). It made it to 136.76/XAU on April 5th.

That also had it initially fulfilling other indicators and objectives – projecting a surge to 134 – 138.00 in this time frame. That is where four consecutive weekly LHRs converged (highest at 137.96/XAU) – just below the monthly Raw SPR at 138.15/XAU.

The XAU has fulfilled all these objectives and could see a brief pullback – possibly spiking down to 130.50 – 131.80/XAU. However, it would not signal a multi-week top until (at the very least) it turns its daily trend down.

And that is not possible, since it takes a minimum of 3 days for a complete trend reversal, until April 15th… at the very earliest. (The trigger point will be discussed this weekend if it has been established by then.)

On a broader basis, the February ’24 low projected a higher-magnitude advance to at least 157.00/XAU, where the current rally would match the magnitude of the late-2022/early-2023 rally. That could be seen in the coming months… possibly weeks.

Another 1/3 cold have been exited when 138.00/XAU was hit. Move sell stops to exit the remaining 1/3 if/when a daily close below 130.40/XAU.“ TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

April 10, 2024, Weekly Re-Lay Alert

04-13-24 – “Gold & Silver surged in fulfillment of their multi-month outlook…

Gold & Silver have surged to primary & secondary upside targets in line with overriding wave timing targets, particularly in Gold. For the past ~7 weeks, Gold had been projected to surge from ~2040 and to stretch that advance into the middle half of April 2024.

Gold reached its initial targets while attacking its weekly LHR on April 5th. That signal portends an impending intermediate peak – usually within the ensuing 1 – 2 weeks. That often involves a test of the weekly HHR in one of the two weeks after the LHR has been reached.

During the past week, that level came into play at 2444/GCM and coincided with a combination of other upside targets at 2430 – 2445/GCM. That included the April 2024 PLLR (2431/GCM) and a pair of range targets.

At the same time, cycles & timing objectives projected a rally into the middle half of April (April 8 – 22nd) with the greatest synergy of cycles on April 12/15th. The intra-month uptrends also forecast a rally into April 12/15th.

A high on April 12 – 18th would fulfill a ~1-month/ ~30-degree low (Nov 13 – 18, ’23) – low (Dec 13 – 18, ’23) – low (Jan 13 – 18, ’24) – low (Feb 13 – 18, ’24) – low (March 13 – 18, ’24) – (high; April 13 – 18, ’24) Cycle Progression.

It would also fulfill a ~19-wk low (March ’23) – high (July 17-21 ’23) – high (Nov 27 – Dec 1 ’23) – (high; April 8 – 15 (–19), ’24) Cycle Progression.

Gold rallied to 2448/GCM on April 12th.

Meanwhile, Silver surged to its own combination of upside targets at 28.09 – 28.25/SIK (range-trading target, weekly LHR, monthly HHR) and attacked 30.00/SIK before pulling back.

This could prompt quick pullbacks to 2270 – 2290/GCM & 2630 – 2660/SIK in the short term.

1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders/investors could have entered long positions in Gold & Silver at averages of 2045/GCM & 23.00/SIK and be holding 1/2 of these positions w/avg. open gains of about $32,500/contract & $26,600/contract, respectively. Move risk/exit levels to daily closes below 2335/ GCM & 27.50/SIK. TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

The other 1/2 of Gold positions should have been exited when 2319/GCM was hit – with avg. gains of about $27,000/contract – and in Silver at the start of the week with avg. gains of about $23,000/contract.

1 – 5 day Outlook:

Gold & Silver surged into the convergence of daily, weekly & monthly cycles in the middle half of April – with Gold attacking its second upside target as both completed some wave symmetry in their advances from October 2023.

They have rallied for ~9 weeks after previously rallying for ~9 weeks (and then correcting for ~10 weeks in between). This does not (yet), however, signal that a top is in place and does not yet inhibit additional gains in the near term.

The XAU & HUI surged in line with their monthly 21 MACs & 21 MARCs and the unique parallels to the previous surge from mid-February into mid-April 2023.

Adding to those similarities, the XAU spiked up to the resistance where it ultimately peaked in mid-April 2023 – a peak that was set on April 13th (this one could not occur on Saturday, April 13th, so it initially took hold on April 12th – a 360-degree cycle.

The XAU surged into April 12th, set an intraday high of 143.84 while its highest daily close was 138.69/XAU – all fulfilling decisive upside objectives. The XAU could see a brief pullback – possibly spiking down to 130.50 – 131.80/XAU, where previous highs now overlap the coming week’s support and HLS.

On a 3 – 6 month basis, the February ’24 low projected a higher-magnitude advance to at least 157.00/XAU, where the current rally would match the magnitude of the late-2022/early-2023 rally. That could be seen in the coming months.

Another 1/3 cold have been exited when 138.00/ XAU was hit. Move sell stops to exit the remaining 1/3 on a daily close below 130.40/XAU. “

April 13, 2024, Weekly Re-Lay

04-16-24 – “Gold & Silver surged to primary & secondary upside targets in line with overriding wave timing targets, particularly in Gold. For the past ~7 weeks, Gold had been projected to surge from ~2040 and to stretch that advance into the middle half of April 2024.

Gold reached its initial targets while attacking its weekly LHR on April 5th, portending an ensuing intermediate peak in the weeks that followed. That often involves a test of the weekly HHR in one of the two weeks after the LHR has been reached.

Last week, that level came into play at 2444/GCM and coincided with a combination of other upside targets at 2430 – 2445/ GCM. That included the April 2024 PLLR (2431/GCM) and a pair of range targets.

At the same time, cycles & timing objectives projected a rally into the middle half of April (April 8 – 22nd) with the greatest synergy of cycles on April 12/15th. A high on April 12 – 18th would fulfill a ~1-month/~30-degree low (Nov 13 – 18, ’23) – low (Dec 13 – 18, ’23) – low (Jan 13 – 18, ’24) – low (Feb 13 – 18, ’24) – low (March 13 – 18, ’24) – (high; April 13 – 18, ’24) Cycle Progression.

It would also fulfill a ~19-wk low (March ’23) – high (July 17-21 ’23) – high (Nov 27 – Dec 1 ’23) – (high; April 8 – 19, ’24) Cycle Progression.

Gold rallied to 2448/GCM on April 12th… and has consolidated since then.

Meanwhile, Silver surged to its own combination of upside targets and attacked 30.00/SIK before pulling back. Its extreme upside target for April 2024 – the monthly LHR – was at 29.76/SIK and also represents a primary range target based on its trading in 2024.

Silver spiked up to 29.90/SIK and is showing signs of a 1 – 2 week (or longer) peak.

This could prompt quick pullbacks to 2270 – 2290/GCM & 2630 – 2660/SIK in the short term… possibly spiking as low as 22.40/GCM & 25.90/SIK IF the current peaks hold.

1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders/investors could have entered long positions in Gold & Silver at averages of 2045/GCM & 23.00/SIK and be holding 1/2 of these positions w/avg. open gains of about $35,000/contract & $25,500/contract, respectively. These long positions can be exited now.

The XAU & HUI surged in line with their monthly 21 MACs & 21 MARCs and the unique parallels to the previous surge from mid-February into mid-April 2023.

That also had it initially fulfilling other indicators and objectives while attacking broader resistance at 143 – 145.00/XAU. The XAU surged into April 12th, set an intraday high of 143.84 while its highest daily close was 138.69/XAU – all fulfilling decisive upside objectives.

The XAU has seen a brief pullback – spiking down to 130.50 – 131.80/XAU, where previous highs overlap the coming week’s support and HLS – and is now at a pivotal juncture. A daily close below this support would project a drop to 124 – 126.00/XAU.

Another 1/3 could have been exited when 138.00/XAU was hit. Move sell stops to exit the remaining 1/3 on a daily close below 130.60/XAU.“ TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

April 16, 2024, Weekly Re-Lay Alert

04-20-24 – “Gold & Silver surged to primary & secondary upside price targets in the first half of April, fulfilling overriding wave timing targets, particularly in Gold. For the past ~8 weeks, Gold had been projected to surge from ~2040 (in mid-February) into the middle half of April 2024.

Gold attacked its weekly LHR on April 5th, portending an ensuing intermediate peak in the 2 – 3 weeks that followed. That often involves a test of the weekly HHR in one of the two weeks after the LHR has been reached.

In mid-April, that level came into play at 2444/GCM and coincided with a combination of other upside targets at 2430 – 2445/GCM. That included the April 2024 PLLR (2431/GCM) and a pair of range targets.

Gold rallied to 2448/GCM on April 12th… and has consolidated since then.

That high also fulfilled a ~19-wk low (March ’23) – high (July 17-21 ’23) – high (Nov 27 – Dec 1 ’23) – (high; April 8 – 19, ’24) Cycle Progression. An intervening 65 – 69 day low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progression recurs on April 19 – 23rd…

So, Gold has fulfilled primary upside targets but has not (yet) removed the potential for any added spike highs. So, additional highs are still possible.

Since the August 2020 peak in Gold, Gold & Silver have experienced 4 primary moves of 27 – 29/30 weeks in duration. Two of those were declines and two of those were advances. There were other moves, or extensions of those trends, but the most noteworthy ones were those 4.

The current advance – starting from the early-October ’23 low – has the potential to make it a 5th and peak in April 2024.

[This ~27 – 29/30-week cycle is the midpoint of the nearly-ubiquitous 54 – 59-week/~12.5 – ~13.5-month cycle that has governed Gold for over a decade. That is the same cycle that came back into play in early-October 2023 and pinpointed another major bottom. Late-April 2024 is the midpoint.]

Another ~6.5-month advance would culminate in the month of April. With the strength of this uptrend, it is more likely that Gold & Silver would stretch to the extreme (29/30 weeks; late-April ‘24) before setting a multi-week peak.

So, there is still the potential – from a 1 – 2 year perspective – this advance could last into the latter part of April.

Meanwhile, Silver surged to its own combination of upside targets and attacked 30.00/SIK before pulling back. Its extreme upside target for April 2024 – the monthly LHR – was at 29.76/SIK and also represented a primary range target based on its trading in 2024.

Silver spiked up to 29.90/SIK and set an initial 1 – 2 week (or longer) peak.

If it rallies to new highs, Silver could spike as high as ~31.50/SIK in April.

1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders/investors could have entered long positions in Gold & Silver at averages of 2045/GCM & 23.00/SIK and exited the second 1/2 mid-week w/avg. gains of about $35,000/contract & $25,500/contract, respectively.

1 – 5 day Outlook:

Gold & Silver have consolidated near their highs after surging into the convergence of daily, weekly & monthly cycles in the middle half of April – with Gold attacking its second upside target.

While that initially fulfilled the 1 – 2 month outlook, they would not signal multi-week highs until daily closes below 2340/GCM & 27.60/SIK. Until those closes materialize, Gold & Silver remain in 1 – 2 month uptrends with the potential for additional gains before a multi-week top is signaled.

The XAU & HUI corrected after surging into mid-April in line with their monthly 21 MACs & 21 MARCs and the unique parallels to the previous surge from mid-February into mid-April 2023. The XAU spiked up to the resistance where it peaked in mid-April 2023 and (initially) peaked at the same time.

The XAU triggered a brief pullback that spiked down to 130.50 – 131.80/XAU, where previous highs overlap weekly support and HLS. As long as this support holds, the XAU is capable of rallying to new highs and potentially surging as high as monthly extremes that converge around 150.50 – 151.90.

1 – 3 month traders & investors could have entered long positions in related instruments (ETFs, stocks, etc.) when the XAU was at 102.60 – 106.00 in late-February ‘24 – when the buy signal was published – and exited 1/3 of those positions when 134.00/XAU was hit. Another 1/3 could have been exited when 138.00/XAU was hit.

Exit the remaining 1/3 on a daily close below 130.60/XAU (or a test of 150.50/XAU).“ TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

April 20, 2024, Weekly Re-Lay

Result

Gold, Silver & the XAU Index fulfilled their mid-February buy signals while peaking in mid-April 2024 – setting the stage for a multi-month period of consolidation with future highs forecast for May & July 2024, as part of an ongoing, multi-year uptrend from the late-2022 lows. October 2024 is the next multi-year cycle and should be monitored closely.

TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

Gold/Silver Cycles - May 2024

May 2024 – Gold/Silver Cycles… and How 3 Key Indicators Validated Wave & Cycle Progression Signals in mid-February ‘24.

The Golden Opportunity

The Seismic Shift Continues

Gold’s New Bull Market

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