Gold/Silver Cycles

The (Trading) Golden Rule

October 2022 through early-January 2023 and early-March through early-May 2023 produced two more examples of the Trading Golden Rule‘Buy Low (near cycle lows) and Sell High (near cycle peaks)’.  A third example is forecast for 4Q 2023… with more opportunities expected in 2024.

Early-March ’23 provided another ‘Golden Opportunity’ for ‘gold bugs’ as the yellow metal bottomed in sync with weekly & monthly cycles and then quickly triggered a pair of buy signals on March 3rd and March 8th.  From that point forward, almost every related publication projected – and remained focused on – the outlook for a surge into early-May 2023.

Gold & Silver ultimately peaked on May 4/5, 2023.

Since more buying opportunities are forecast – for 4Q 2023 and at specific times in 2024 (based on future, intervening cycle lows that are already revealed) – it is important to lay the groundwork for this past (early-March ’23) buy signal… and future ones to come.

A Seismic Shift

For over a decade, INSIIDE Track publications have described a pair of potentially tumultuous periods that would overlap the transition of major 40-Year Cycles of Currency Wars.  The first was forecast to unfold in 2016 – 2021 – the culmination of the latest 40-Year Cycle.

This is a multi-generational cycle that should have a MAJOR impact on all form of currency in the 2020’s! 

A key element to that analysis – one of the most important in that context – was the outlook for Gold to undergo a major rally from late-2015 into late-2020/early-2021… a precursor to what should follow during a key period during the 2020’s.

That analysis was published in diverse articles, included in dozens of podcasts, and detailed in an interview for the book: Breakthrough Strategies of Wall Street Traders (https://40yearcycle.com/uncategorized/breakthrough-strategies-of-wall-street-traders/).

As detailed in 2013 – 2016 (and up to the present day), that multi-year advance would confirm multiple expectations:

— US Dollar would enter the first phase of a major decline in early-2016 EVEN as the value of the Dollar Index moved higher.  It’s ACTUAL value – when compared to assets other than competing fiat (debt-backed) currencies – would decline, most obvious when compared to Gold.

— Gold would see the first of two (or three) major, multi-year advances in 2016 – 2020.  The second was forecast to begin in late-2022, at the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency WarsIt has already given strong indication of how long it should last.

— That 5 – 6-year period – leading into 2021/2022 – would mark the culmination of multi-decade bull markets in paper assets (Bonds, stocks, etc.) and the shift into ‘hard’ assets (commodities, metals, etc.)… a shift that would likely be subtle at first but grow in intensity as the 2020’s unfold.

— The Dollar Index would set a Major peak near the transition (~2022) of those two 40-Year Cycles.  That would usher in a second multi-year decline, this time against Gold AND other fiat currencies.

— Bonds would set major peaks in mid-2016 and ultimately in mid-2020 – the culmination of a ~40-Year Cycle of inflation/deflation swings.  At critical times within the subsequent new interest rate environment (post-2020), Gold & Silver would possess proportionately-greater potential for upside surges.  (At other times, interest rates would weigh on their perceived value… timing is everything!)

A New Paradigm

The second tumultuous period was forecast to unfold in late-2021 into late-2025 (with a broader, over-arching period stretching from late-2021 into late-2029).

Late-2021 ushered in the start of a multi-year war on Europe’s borders (Russia/Ukraine), a pivotal top in many stocks, a major peak in cryptocurrency (the newest combatant in the 40-Year Cycle of Currency Wars), and the acceleration of a corresponding surge in inflation, commodity prices & interest rates.

That stretched through the first year – the ‘opening range’ – of this new 40-Year Cycle (into late-2022) and laid the foundation for several key market (and geopolitical) expectations for late-2022 into late-2025.

One of those involved projections for Gold & Silver to enter multi-year advances beginning in late-2022.

That overall analysis was described in many publications, articles and interviews, including:

https://www.insiidetracktrading.com/wp-content/uploads/Middle-East-War-Cycles-in-Late-2023.pdf

https://www.insiidetracktrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2023-04-11-ITT-Bridge-Gold-Silver-Elliott-Wave.pdf

The Setup & Signal(s)

Throughout 1Q 2023, there were two future cycles that remained the intermediate focus in Gold & Silver.  The first was in early-March ’23 and the second was in early-May ’23.  Even before the early-March ’23 lows were set in Gold & Silver, cycle analysis had already signaled that precious metals should see a powerful surge into early-May ’23 and then set a multi-month peak at that time.

The corroborating technical indicators (cycles are never viewed in isolation and should never be traded on their own) reinforced an abundance of synergy reaching the same conclusion.

The fulfillment of that second cycle – in early-May ’23 – would have a powerful and confirming impact on the outlook for the remainder of 2023 and on the potential multi-year advance that was projected to begin in late-2022 and last until ????? (topic of other analysis).

The following are a collection of excerpts from the Weekly Re-Lay publications that set up this advance, triggered a pair of buy signals in early-March, and followed Gold & Silver through until they set multi-month peaks in early-May (at which time they began to hone the outlook for a future 4Q ’23 surge)…

02-25-23 Silver has been correcting since surging into cycle highs on Jan 3 – 6 and reaching its multi-month upside target (24.50 – 24.68/SIH).  That culminated a ~4-month uptrend and ushered in the time for a multi-month corrective period… Silver was forecast to spur a drop to/below 21.50/SIH… Gold was forecast to spike as low as 1820.0/GCJ before entering a new rally.

Both have dropped to those levels, fulfilling the primary downside objectives for these sell-offs, and have spiked below them… and into a larger-scale ~6-month/24 – 26-week high-high-low (Aug 29 – Sept 2, ’22) – (low; Feb 24 – Mar 3, ’23) Cycle Progression – a ~6-month/~180-degree move from its Sept 1 low.  A low in the coming week would also complete a 50% retracement in time (4 months up, 2 months down)… 

From separate perspectives, both Gold & Silver are projecting a future peak for early-May ’23.  That would fulfill a ~4-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Silver and a ~3-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Gold…

The XAU & HUI are steadily tracing out a textbook wave structure, first surging into Jan ’23 and fulfilling ongoing projections for multi-month rallies to 137.29 – 139.84/XAU & 259.42 – 262.31/HUI.  They peaked at those target ranges and reversed lower. 

They sold off to/below initial downside price targets and are setting up for a ‘2’ or ‘B’ wave low (primary low was Sept ’22) – now that timing objectives are being fulfilled (21 – 23-week high-high-high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression). 

The first advance – into Jan ’23 and right to the 3 – 6 month upside targets at 137.29 – 139.84/XAU & 259.42 – 262.31/HUI – was able to reverse the monthly trend to up, a lagging and confirming indicator that usually reverses at/near the culmination of an initial multi-month rally.  At the time, the XAU perpetuated a 9 – 10 month/41 – 45 week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression.

Once a peak was set, there was a combination of price and timing downside targets expected from this sell-off.  The price targets, which have been fulfilled (and exceeded to the downside) came into play at 115/XAU & 220/HUI.  That set the stage for an impending low in line with cycle lows… during the same week that extremes (weekly HLS levels) were tested and held – both signals that portend a 1 – 2 month low in the ensuing 1 – 3 weeks (by Mar 6 – 10, ’23, at the latest). 

That fits perfectly with weekly cycles that have governed mining shares for the past couple years.  In particular, a 21 – 23 week high-high-high-high-low Cycle Progression – that helped pinpoint the Sept ’22 low – projects a subsequent low on Feb 24 – Mar 10, ’23.  That has been the primary focus – for the next multi-month low – since early-2023. 

February 25, 2023, Weekly Re-Lay

02-28-23Gold & Silver have corrected after reaching multi-month upside price targets in early-Jan ‘23, while fulfilling weekly & monthly cycles in Silver… That fulfilled most of the upside price potential, for this initial multi-month rally in Gold, and occurred as Silver was retesting its 3 – 6 month upside target at 24.50 – 24.68/SI.  Once again, Silver held that critical resistance – reinforcing its significance (and the validity of its early-Jan ‘23 cycle peak) – and triggered a reversal lower. 

That projected a larger-magnitude sell-off – a type of ‘2’ wave decline that would correct the entire Sept – Jan ‘23 advance.  A low in early-March ‘23 would fulfill a ~6-month high (early-Mar ’22) – low (early-Sept ’22) – (low; early-March ’23) Cycle Progression and a precise 50% retracement in time (4 mos up into early-Jan ‘23, 2 mos down into early-Mar ‘23).  It would also perpetuate a ~1-month/28 – 30 day high-high-high-(low; Mar 2 – 6, ‘23) Cycle Progression…

From separate perspectives, both Gold & Silver are projecting a future peak for early-May ’23.  That would fulfill a ~4-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Silver and a ~3-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Gold. 

The Jan ’23 highs completed what had been projected to be a 3 – 6 month advance from major lows set in the final third of 2022 – Silver in Sept ‘22 and Gold in Nov/Dec ‘22.  The importance of those cycle lows, and the corresponding wave structure and potential they would validate, was detailed in many previous issues, including the Oct ‘22 INSIIDE Track…

The XAU & HUI are steadily tracing out a textbook wave structure, first surging into Jan ’23 and fulfilling ongoing projections for multi-month rallies to 137.29 – 139.84/XAU & 259.42 – 262.31/HUI.  They peaked at those target ranges and reversed lower. 

They sold off into the latest phase of a 21 – 23-week high-high-high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression that helped pinpoint the Sept ’22 low and projected a subsequent low on Feb 24 – Mar 10, ’23.  All of this is fulfilling what was described in early-Jan:

1-05-23 – “The XAU & HUI have rallied since dropping into Sept ’22, fulfilling a ~5-month (21 – 23 week) high-high-high-low Cycle Progression… That set the stage for a multi-month low with the ongoing outlook for a surge to 130 – 137/XAU & 245 – 251/HUI… The next multi-month low could be seen in the first half of March ‘23, in line with the 23-week Cycle Progression…” .  

The first advance – into Jan ’23 and to 3 – 6 month upside targets – reversed the monthly trend to up, a lagging and confirming indicator that usually reverses at/near the culmination of an initial multi-month rally…  That usually triggers a 1 – 3 month reactive sell-off, which has taken place, with both indexes spiking down to the convergence of their last two monthly HLS levels (extreme downside targets).  A 1 – 2 month (or longer) low is expected on Feb 24 – Mar 10, ‘23.  

March 2023, INSIIDE Track

03-01-23Gold & Silver have corrected after Silver peaked in early-Jan ‘23, while fulfilling weekly & monthly cycles, and Gold stretched its rally into early-Feb ’23. Silver’s Jan ‘23 peak fulfilled its multi-month upside target (24.50 – 24.68/SIH) and set the stage for a 1 – 2 month correction.

That has had Silver spiking down into a ~6-month/24 – 26-week high-high-low (Aug 29 – Sept 2, ’22) – (low; Feb 24 – Mar 3, ’23) Cycle Progression – a ~6-month/~180-degree move from its Sept 1 low.  A low at this time would also complete a 50% retracement in time (4 months up, 2 months down).   

It would also perpetuate a ~1-month/28 – 30 day high-high-high-(low; Mar 2 – 6, ‘23) Cycle Progression.  Silver has dropped below weekly 21 MAC support (reinforcing that this is a higher magnitude correction; a ‘2’ wave decline on a 1 – 2 year basis) and completed a .618 retracement (of Sept – Jan ’23 rally) – at 20.50/SIK

That was expected to spur a drop to range-trading support at 1820/GCJ… which has since transpired…    

The XAU & HUI reached and briefly spiked below their 2 – 4 week downside targets at 115/XAU & 220/HUI.  Consistent with their weekly trend signals and weekly HLS indicators, they should bottom in the current time frame – fulfilling a 21 – 23 week high-high-high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression that helped pinpoint the Sept ’22 low – with a low on Feb 24 – Mar 10, ’23.

March 1, 2023, Weekly Re-Lay

The preceding publications set the stage for an early-March ’23 bottom in Gold & Silver, projected to be followed by a surge into early-May ’23.  They were forecast to bottom near 1820/GCJ & 20.50/SIKvery near where the actual lows took hold.  Gold & Silver bottomed in early-March – as detailed in the following excerpts – and quickly triggered a pair of multi-week buy signals (on March 3rd and March 8th), reinforcing the outlook for a sharp rally into early-May 2023

03-04-23Gold & Silver have corrected… That has resulted in Silver dropping into a ~6-month/24 – 26-week high-high-low (Aug 29 – Sept 2, ’22) – (low; Feb 24 – Mar 3, ’23) Cycle Progression – a ~6-month/~180-degree move from its Sept 1 low.  A low at this time would also complete a 50% retracement in time (4 months up, 2 months down).

This is occurring as Silver has just completed a precise .618 retracement (of its Sept – Jan ’23 rally) while dropping to 20.50/SIK.  At the same time, Gold has repeatedly tested its 2 – 4 week downside target at ~1820/GCJ.  From a price perspective, this is an ideal scenario for a multi-week low…

Gold just generated an outside-week/2 Close Reversal higher which should… reinforce the next convergence of daily/weekly cycle highs… in early-May ’23

A high at that time would fulfill a ~4-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Silver and a ~3-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Gold… Gold would also complete successive advances of equal duration (~7 months/~31 weeks, when compared to Aug ’21 – Mar ’22) if it extends its overall advance into early-May ’23… 

The XAU & HUI reached and briefly spiked below their 2 – 4 week downside targets at 115/XAU & 220/ HUI while fulfilling their weekly HLS indicators and precisely fulfilling a 21 – 23 week high-high-high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression that timed the Sept ’22 low and returned on Feb 24 – Mar 10, ’23.

From a cyclic, price, and wave perspective, these indexes are steadily tracing out a textbook wave structure, first surging into Jan ’23 and fulfilling ongoing projections for multi-month rallies to 137.29 – 139.84/XAU & 259.42 – 262.31/HUI.  They peaked at those target ranges and reversed lower. 

They sold off to/below downside price targets and fulfilled weekly cycles in late-Feb ‘23, setting up for a ‘2’ or ‘B’ wave low (primary low was Sept ’22).  The first advance – into Jan ’23 – was able to reverse the monthly trend up, a lagging and confirming indicator that usually reverses at/near the culmination of an initial multi-month rally. 

At the time, the XAU perpetuated a 9 – 10 month/ 41 – 45 week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression that returns in 4Q ’23…”

March 4, 2023, Weekly Re-Lay

03-08-23Gold & Silver… dropped to downside price targets with Silver dropping below support while Gold continues to hold its 2 – 4 week downside target (and 1 – 2 month support) at ~1820/GCJ… projecting a future high in early-May ‘23.

That is when the next 1 – 2 month peak is most likely.  A high in early-May ‘23 would fulfill a ~4-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Silver and a ~3-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Gold.  The recent high has also seen Silver create a ~2-month low-low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression that projects a future intermediate peak in early-May ’23.

Gold would also complete successive advances of equal duration (~7 months/~31 weeks, when compared to Aug ’21 – Mar ’22) if it extends its overall advance into early-May ’23

1 – 4 week traders can enter long positions in April Comex Gold futures… [TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!]

The XAU & HUI are retesting their lows as they complete the ideal time frame for a low – fulfilling a 21 – 23 week high-high-high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression that helped pinpoint the Sept ’22 low and recurs on Feb 24 – Mar 10, ’23.  Similar to Gold, these indexes reversed their daily trends up (while rallying into March 6) and have just twice neutralized those uptrends while retesting their late-Feb lows…. these indexes could continue to trace out a bottom and reverse higher.”

March 8, 2023, Weekly Re-Lay

03-11-23Gold & Silver are diverging with Gold rallying in fulfillment of its daily trend pattern and March 8 buy signal while Silver continued to correct… That has resulted in Silver dropping into a ~6-month high-high-(low) Cycle Progression while completing a 50% retracement in time (4 months/18 weeks up, 2 months/9 weeks down). 

It also has the potential to perpetuate an ongoing ~6-month/~12-month cycle in Silver that has resulted in 3 – 6 month or 6 – 12 month lows in March & Sept ’20, March & Sept ’21 and Sept ’22… with an intervening peak in March ’22.  A low in March ’23 would extend that 180-degree sequence of turning points (mostly lows).

Meanwhile, Gold dropped right to its intermediate downside target (1820/GCJ), triggering a new multi-week buy signal on the March 8 close…

On March 3, Gold generated an outside-week/2 Close Reversal higher. 

On March 10, it reinforced that signal… The 1 – 2 month outlook still calls for the next peak to occur in early-May ’23

A high in early-May ‘23 would fulfill a ~4-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Silver and a ~3-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Gold.  Gold would also complete successive advances of equal duration (~7 months/~31 weeks, when compared to Aug ’21 – Mar ’22) if it extends its overall advance into early-May ’23

Gold & Silver diverged as Gold held its late-Feb low and reinforced its March 3 weekly (bullish) signals as Silver… projects a future high in early-May… Silver has, however, fulfilled almost all of what would be expected from a larger-magnitude ‘2’ (or ‘B’… both have the same characteristics) wave pullback and entered the ideal time for a new 1 – 2 month rally… 

The XAU & HUI retested their lows as they completed the ideal time frame for a low – fulfilling a 21 – 23 week high-high-high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression that helped pinpoint the Sept ’22 low and recurs on Feb 24 – Mar 10, ’23.

March 11, 2023, Weekly Re-Lay

03-13-23Gold & Silver are surging with Gold rallying in fulfillment of its daily trend pattern (turned neutral but not down, corroborating the March 3 bullish weekly signal) and March 8 buy signal – reinforcing the potential for a rally… The 3/11/23 Weekly Re-Lay explained why additional upside was still likely, dovetailing with analysis for a bullish-case…

Silver dropped into March 10 and began to bottom, fulfilling a ~6-month high-high-(low) Cycle Progression while completing a 50% retracement in time (4 months/18 weeks up, 2 months/9 weeks down). 

It also (initially) perpetuated an ongoing ~6-month/~12-month cycle in Silver that has resulted in 3 – 6 month or 6 – 12 month lows in March & Sept ’20, March & Sept ’21 and Sept ’22… with an intervening peak in March ’22.  A low in March ’23 would extend that 180-degree sequence of turning points (mostly lows).

Meanwhile, Gold dropped right to its intermediate downside target (1820/GCJ), triggering a new multi-week buy signal on the March 8 close… 

The 1 – 2 month outlook still calls for the next peak to occur in early-May ’23.  A high in early-May ‘23 would fulfill a ~4-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Silver and a ~3-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Gold.  Gold would also complete successive advances of equal duration (~7 months/~31 weeks, when compared to Aug ’21 – Mar ’22) if it extends its overall advance into early-May ’23

The XAU & HUI retested their lows as they completed the ideal time frame for a low – fulfilling a 21 – 23 week high-high-high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression that helped pinpoint the Sept ’22 low and culminates on Mar 6 – 10, ’23.  They could see a rally to ~125/XAU & ~240/HUI, where 1 – 2 week resistance is converging. 

March 13, 2023, INSIIDE Track Intra-Month Update

03-15-23Gold & Silver surged into mid-March with Gold rallying in fulfillment of its daily trend pattern (turned neutral but not down, corroborating the March 3 bullish weekly signal) and March 8 buy signal… Silver also surged and reached its initial upside target at 22.30 – 22.50/SIK (weekly LHR, 50% rally, recent range resistance)…” 

March 15, 2023, Weekly Re-Lay

03-18-23Gold & Silver rallied on the heels of Gold’s weekly (March 3) and daily (March 8) bullish signals…  Gold & Silver are surging with Gold rallying in fulfillment of its daily trend pattern (turned neutral but not down, corroborating the March 3 bullish weekly signal) and March 8 buy signal – reinforcing the potential for a new rally. 

At the same time, Silver spiked to new ~4-month lows and fulfilled a ~6-month high-high-(low) Cycle Progression while completing a 50% retracement in time (4 months/18 weeks up, 2 months/9 weeks down). 

That also perpetuated an ongoing ~6-month/~12-month cycle in Silver that has resulted in 3 – 6 month or 6 – 12 month lows in March & Sept ’20, March & Sept ’21 and Sept ’22… with an intervening peak in March ’22. 

Gold bottomed right near its multi-week downside target (1820/GCJ) and triggered a new multi-week buy signal on the March 8 close. 

That reinforced the impact of its March 3 outside-week/2 Close Reversal higher – a 2 – 3 week buy signal… 

The 1 – 2 month outlook still calls for the next peak to occur in early-May ’23.  A high in early-May ‘23 would fulfill a ~3-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Gold and a ~4-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Silver… Gold would also complete successive advances of equal duration (~7 months/~31 weeks, when compared to Aug ’21 – Mar ’22) if it extends its overall advance into early-May ’23

Gold & Silver have surged on the heels of Gold’s March 3 weekly bullish signal and March 8 daily buy signal… Silver is not as strong, on a near-term basis, but has fulfilled almost all of what would be expected from a larger-magnitude ‘2’ (or ‘B’… both have the same characteristics) wave pullback and entered the ideal time for a new 1 – 2 month rally…

The XAU & HUI have surged and neutralized their weekly downtrends (for the first time) after retesting and holding their lows as they completed the ideal time frame for a low – fulfilling a 21 – 23 week high-high-high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression that helped pinpoint the Sept ’22 low and culminated on Mar 6 – 10, ’23… 

Platinum & Palladium are diverging (again) after Platinum sold off into late-Feb ’23 – when 90/180 /360-degree cycles came into play – fulfilling a ~6-month high-low-(low) Cycle Progression and a 50% retracement in time (18 wks up/9 wks down). 

In Feb ’23, Platinum plunged to its monthly HLS (extreme downside target for Feb ‘23) at ~905.0/PLJ, where a low was most likely.  That was also near the levels of the Sept & Dec ’21 lows – creating the potential for an Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern on a 1 – 2 year basis.

March 18, 2023, Weekly Re-Lay

Even Platinum & Palladium reinforced bullish cycles in Gold, Silver, XAU & HUI Indexes – projecting strong surges in March & April 2023!  As each week went by, Gold & Silver reinforced their 1 – 2 month outlook and strengthened their early-March buy signals and the corresponding case for an overall surge into early-May 2023.

The next, and most important signal of confirmation, was for Gold & Silver to reverse their weekly trends up (a proprietary, lagging/confirming indicator that cannot reverse until a few weeks after a multi-month bottom is set)…

03-22-23Gold & Silver surged with Gold rallying in fulfillment of its daily trend pattern (turned neutral but not down, corroborating the March 3 bullish weekly signal) and March 8 buy signal. 

At the same time, Silver spiked to new ~4-month lows and fulfilled a ~6-month high-high-(low) Cycle Progression while completing a 50% retracement in time (4 months/18 weeks up, 2 months/9 weeks down).  That also perpetuated an ongoing ~6-month/~12-month cycle in Silver that has resulted in 3 – 6 month or 6 – 12 month lows in March & Sept ’20, March & Sept ’21 and Sept ’22… with an intervening peak in March ’22. 

Gold bottomed right near its multi-week downside target (1820/GCJ) and triggered a new multi-week buy signal on the March 8 close.  That reinforced the impact of its March 3 outside-week/2 Close Reversal higher – a 2 – 3 week buy signal. 

Gold has neutralized its weekly downtrend twice, reinforcing the outlook for it to extend this rally… The 1 – 2 month outlook still calls for the next peak to occur in early-May ’23.  A high in early-May ‘23 would fulfill a ~3-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Gold and a ~4-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Silver.  If Gold sets a peak today (Mar 20), the midpoint of that ~3-month cycle, it would corroborate the outlook for early-May ’23.

Gold would also complete successive advances of equal duration (~7 months/~31 weeks, when compared to Aug ’21 – Mar ’22) if it extends its overall advance into early-May ’23

The XAU & HUI have surged and neutralized their weekly downtrends (for the first time) after retesting and holding their lows as they completed the ideal time frame for a low – fulfilling a 21 – 23 week high-high-high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression that helped pinpoint the Sept ’22 low and culminated on Mar 6 – 10, ’23… 

The weekly trend should go a long way in revealing what to expect in 2Q ’23 (and potentially all the way into Sept/Oct ’23).

March 20, 2023, INSIIDE Track Update

03-22-23Gold & Silver surged with Gold rallying in fulfillment of its daily trend pattern (triggering March 8 buy signal) on the heels of its March 3 bullish weekly signal.  At that time, Silver spiked to new ~4-month lows and fulfilled a ~6-month high-high-(low) Cycle Progression while completing a 50% retracement in time (4 months/18 weeks up, 2 months/9 weeks down). 

Gold bottomed right near its multi-week downside target (1820/GCJ) and triggered a new multi-week buy signal on the March 8 close.  That reinforced the impact of its March 3 outside-week/2 Close Reversal higher…

The 1 – 2 month outlook still calls for the next peak to occur in early-May ’23.  A high in early-May ‘23 would fulfill a ~3-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Gold and a ~4-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Silver.  Gold would also complete successive advances of equal duration (~7 months/~31 weeks, when compared to Aug ’21 – Mar ’22) if it extends its overall advance into early-May ’23

The weekly trend should go a long way in revealing what to expect in 2Q ’23 (and potentially all the way into Sept/Oct ’23). 

March 22, 2023, Weekly Re-Lay Alert

Not only would the weekly trend indicator confirm the early-March ’23 bottom as a multi-month low and corroborate repeated projections for a surge into early-May ’23, it would also help hone the outlook for a late-2023 projected surge in Gold & Silver – linked to pivotal cycles in Sept/Oct 2023.  The March/April bullish outlook continued…

03-25-23Gold & Silver surged with Gold rallying in fulfillment of its daily trend pattern after bottoming right near its multi-week downside target (1820/GCJ) and triggering a new multi-week buy signal on the March 8 close.  That reinforced the impact of its March 3 outside-week/2 Close Reversal higher…

At that time, Silver spiked to new ~4-month lows and fulfilled a ~6-month high-high-(low) Cycle Progression while completing a 50% retracement in time (4 months/18 weeks up, 2 months/9 weeks down).  It has rallied ever since.

In the (now-becoming-front) June contract, Gold reversed its weekly trend up – confirming the late-Feb low as a multi-month bottom… Silver cannot do the same until March 31… 

The 1 – 2 month outlook still calls for the next 1 – 3 month peak to occur in early-May ’23.  A high in early-May ‘23 would fulfill a ~3-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Gold and a ~4-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Silver. 

Gold would also complete successive advances of equal duration (~7 months/~31 weeks, when compared to Aug ’21 – Mar ’22) if it extends its overall advance into early-May ’23… Silver is steadily confirming that a secondary low is intact after fulfilling almost all of what would be expected from a larger-magnitude ‘2’ (or ‘B’… both have the same characteristics) wave pullback in early-March ‘23…

That intraday peak reinforced the outlook for a subsequent high in early-May, which would now also be the fulfillment of a corroborating 44 – 47-day low-high-high (Feb 2) – high (March 20) – (high; May 3 – 5) Cycle Progression.

March 25, 2023, Weekly Re-Lay

03-29-23Gold & Silver are hesitating after Gold surged into March 20 and Silver into March 24, with Gold setting its highest daily close on March 23 (as the Natural Year began).  Both remain in intermediate uptrends…

Silver needs a weekly close above 23.71/SIK to turn its weekly trend up and confirm a low.  Silver is steadily confirming that a secondary low is intact after fulfilling almost all of what would be expected from a larger-magnitude ‘2’ wave pullback (or ‘B’… both have the same characteristics) in early-March ‘23.

On balance, these metals are still expected to work higher into early-May ’23 and fulfill a ~3-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Gold and a ~4-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Silver… 

Gold would also complete successive advances of equal duration (~7 months/~31 weeks, when compared to Aug ’21 – Mar ’22) if it extends its overall advance into early-May ’23

The XAU & HUI neutralized their weekly downtrends (for the second time on March 24) as they fulfilled projections for surges to monthly resistance at 127.12 – 130.71/XAU & 247.63 – 256.51/HUI.  They would not turn those weekly trends up until weekly closes above 127.82/XAU & 249.85/HUI

This comes after those indexes fulfilled a 21 – 23 week high-high-high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression while bottoming on Mar 6 – 10, ’23.  It would take the weekly trends turning up in order to confirm that low as a multi-month bottom…

That low also fulfilled what the monthly trend had projected.  In Jan ’23, both indexes turned their monthly trends up – a lagging/confirming indicator that often reverses right as a market is initially peaking. 

In the ideal scenario, that signal and that initial peak spur a reactive 1 – 3 month pullback before a new advance – and the resumption of the overarching uptrend – takes hold.  By correcting into early-March, these indexes fulfilled that scenario while reaching downside targets and monthly HLS levels.  As a result, the March 31 close could be revealing.

March 29, 2023, Weekly Re-Lay

The XAU (Gold/Silver Index) & HUI (Gold Bugs Index) reinforced the early-March ’23 buy signals in metals and the corresponding outlook for sharp advances in March/April 2023.  They, too, were projecting a pair of strong rallies – one then and one in late-2023 – as validation to the surprising outlook for 2024/2025…

03-31-23Gold & Silver have surged after Gold bottomed in sync with intermediate support and its correction target (~1820/GCJ, triggering a multi-week buy signal on March 8) and Silver fulfilled multi-month cycles that bottomed in early-March ‘23.

To reiterate from last month, a low in early-March ‘23 fulfilled a ~6-month high (early-Mar ’22) – low (early-Sept ’22) – (low; early-March ’23) Cycle Progression and a precise 50% retracement in time (4 mos up into early-Jan ‘23, 2 mos down into early-Mar ‘23).  It also perpetuated a ~1-month/28 – 30 day high-high-high-(low; Mar 2 – 6, ‘23) Cycle Progression.

That reinforced the 1 – 3 month outlook for a new rally from early-March into early-May ’23.  A peak in early-May ’23 would fulfill a ~4-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Silver and a ~3-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Gold.  Silver is poised to turn its weekly trend up (March 31 close), which would confirm a multi-month bottom…

This action further validates the 1 – 2 year trend, structure and outlook… linked to what was projected to be major lows set in the final third of 2022 – Silver in Sept ‘22 and Gold in Nov/Dec ‘22.  The importance of those cycle lows, and the corresponding wave structure potential they validate, was detailed in many previous issues…

The XAU & HUI are continuing to trace out a textbook wave structure, first surging into Jan ’23 and fulfilling ongoing projections for multi-month rallies to 137.29 – 139.84/XAU & 259.42 – 262.31/HUI.  They peaked at those target ranges and reversed lower. 

They sold off into early-Mar ’23, the latest phase of a 21 – 23-week high-high-high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression that helped pinpoint the Sept ’22 low.  That was corroborated by these indexes attacking their monthly HLS levels (extreme downside targets) in Feb ‘23 – fulfilling what was described in early-Jan…  

The first advance – into Jan ’23 and to 3 – 6 month upside targets – reversed the monthly trend to up, a lagging and confirming indicator that usually reverses at/near the culmination of an initial multi-month rally.  At the time, the XAU perpetuated a 9 – 10 month/41 – 45 week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression and held the descending monthly 21 High MAC.

That usually triggers a 1 – 3 month reactive sell-off, which has taken place, with both indexes spiking down to the convergence of their last two monthly HLS levels (extreme downside targets).  A multi-month low was expected on Feb 24 – Mar 10, ‘23.  Since then, they have surged and turned their weekly trends up.

March 31, 2023, INSIIDE Track

04-01-23Gold & Silver are hesitating after Gold surged into March 20 (on the latest banking ‘crisis’) and set its highest daily close on March 23 (as the Natural Year began).  Silver also rallied but has continued higher, surging long enough to turn its weekly trend up as it nears the highs of 2023.

While Gold has been in an intra-year uptrend for the past three weeks, Silver would not turn its intra-year trend up until a weekly close above 24.94/SIK.

By turning its weekly trend up, Silver has added another level of confirmation to analysis that it completed a larger-magnitude ‘2’ wave pullback (or ‘B’… both have the same characteristics) in early-March ‘23.

At that time, Silver spiked to new ~4-month lows and fulfilled a ~6-month high-high-(low) Cycle Progression while completing a 50% retracement in time (4 months/18 weeks up, 2 months/9 weeks down).  It also perpetuated a ~1-month/28 – 30 day high-high-high-(low; Mar 2 – 6, ‘23) Cycle Progression and has rallied ever since…

The next intermediate peak is expected in early-May ’23 – fulfilling a ~3-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Gold and a ~4-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Silver. 

Gold’s recent peak reinforced that outlook, which would now also be the fulfillment of a corroborating 44 – 47-day low-high-high (Feb 2) – high (March 20) – (high; May 3 – 5) Cycle Progression… Gold would also complete successive advances of equal duration (~7 months/~31 weeks, when compared to Aug ’21 – Mar ’22) if it extends its overall advance into early-May ’23… 

This action further validates the 1 – 2 year trend, structure and outlook… linked to what was projected to be major lows set in the final third of 2022 – Silver in Sept ‘22 and Gold in Nov/Dec ‘22.

April 1, 2023, Weekly Re-Lay

It was, and still is, critical to remind existing readers (and inform new readers) about the significance of major, multi-year cycle lows projected for September/October 2022… and what they mean for the outlook into 2024/2025… and beyond.  They were also expected to have a powerful impact on pivotal cycles in Sept/Oct 2023 and the outlook for a powerful 4Q 2023 (future) surge.

That analysis was reiterated every week, so subscribers would not lose their focus on the ultimate objective.  Another aspect of that broader perspective involved corresponding analysis for the US Dollar Index, which had reached major multi-year upside objectives in late-2022… the same time Gold & Silver were signaling a multi-year low:

04-08-23Gold & Silver spiked higher into the opening days of April… By turning its weekly trend up, Silver added confirmation to analysis it completed a larger-magnitude ‘2’ wave pullback in early-March ‘23while fulfilling a ~6-month high-high-(low) Cycle Progression & completing a 50% retracement in time (4 months/18 weeks up, 2 months/9 weeks down). 

It also ended the week by turning its intra-year trend up, closing above the early-Jan ’23 highs – exactly 3 months/90 degrees later.  A future, more significant peak is still expected in early-May ’23 – fulfilling a ~3-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Gold and a ~4-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Silver. 

Gold would also complete successive advances of equal duration (~7 months/~31 weeks, when compared to Aug ’21 – Mar ’22) if it extends its overall advance into early-May ’23… 

This action further validates the 1 – 2 year trend, structure and outlook… linked to what was projected to be major lows set in the final third of 2022 – Silver in Sept ‘22 and Gold in Nov/Dec ‘22… and the onset of new rallies that should ultimately take Gold to new all-time highs.

One intriguing aspect of this latest surge is that Gold has nearly reached its all-time high while the Dollar Index has barely begun to decline. 

If the 1 – 3 year outlook is accurate (for a major top and onset of a multi-year decline in the Dollar), and Gold trades at an inverse correlation for at least some of that time, it could have dramatic implications for precious metals… 

The XAU & HUI surged to new intra-year highs, further validating their monthly trend signals and the lows set on Mar 6 – 10, ’23 in fulfillment of the 21 – 23 week high-high-high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression that has governed these indexes for a couple years.  They have just corroborated those cycles by turning their intra-year trends up.

That early-March ‘23 low also fulfilled what the monthly trend had projected…  In Jan ’23, both indexes turned their monthly trends up – a lagging/ confirming indicator that often reverses as a market is initially peaking. That is usually followed by a reactive 1 – 3-month pullback before a new advance – and the resumption of the uptrend – takes hold. 

By correcting into early-March, these indexes fulfilled that scenario while reaching downside targets and monthly HLS levels (extreme downside targets for those months) – setting the stage for a ‘2’ wave low and the onset of a new impulse wave. 

Similar to what was just described for the monthly trend, these indexes just turned their weekly trends up – a signal that often triggers an initial high and reactive pullback… before a new rally.

April 8, 2023, Weekly Re-Lay

As Gold & Silver were fulfilling the early-March ’23 buy signals, and the corresponding outlook for strong surges into early-May ’23, they were also ‘casting shadows ahead’ – revealing additional expectations related to a projected 4Q 2023 surge that could coincide with a significant shift in the mindset surrounding interest rates.  That is when Silver (and Gold) could enter the ‘sweet spot’ of an overall inflation & interest rate cycle AND reinforce expectations for 2024

04-12-23 – Silver Surge & Inflation ‘Sweet Spot: Ever since bottoming with weekly & monthly cycles in Sept ’22, Silver has been setting the stage for a second major rally (similar to its 2020/21 advance) – a ‘C’ or ‘3’ wave on a multi-year basis.  The Nov ’22 issue of INSIIDE Track emphasized that…

Silver fulfilled all of what was necessary to set an early-March ’23 low as most metals and indexes were portending late-Feb/early-March ’23 lows.  On the heels of Gold’s March 5 weekly buy signal and March 8 daily buy signal (and a low in Platinum), Silver began its second advance (wave ‘3’) – the one that is usually the most dynamic…

That was also the time when metals were entering the ‘sweet spot’ of inflationary factors – when inflation was/is still very much alive (just not accelerating upward) even as Bonds & Notes were projecting a major bottom – ideally in March ’23

Even though the Fed could still raise rates one or more times in the coming months, the markets are already turning their focus to the potential for lower interest rates in the coming 6 – 12 months… 

That could be the ‘sweet spot’ for metals!  Why??

When inflation is raging, interest rates are usually rising and that keeps a lid on Gold & Silver prices.  In the case of Gold, it has been ‘treading water’ for the past two years – unfolding in what was perceived to be a ~2-year ‘flat correction’ – setting successive highs and then successive lows at similar levels… patiently waiting for interest rate fears to dissipate. 

When those interest rate hikes near an end – even as underlying inflation remains in place (and expected to see another move higher in 2024/25), it provides the optimum scenario for advances in Gold & Silver. 

When, as was the case in 2022, interest rate hikes are also helping to support the Dollar (another suppressing factor on metals), their reduction/removal has a dual-bullish impact on Gold & Silver.

Gold & Silver entered this period in late-2022 and, if the outlook for Bonds is accurate, could be in this favorable time frame for another year.  That is not to say interest rates are the ONLY factor in spurring rallies or declines in metals.  Instead, it is to identify a period of time when rates should be more conducive for repeated gains in metals… the proverbial ‘sweet spot’…

Gold & Silver remain on course for an overall rally from early-March into early-May ‘23.  That would fulfill a ~3-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Gold and a ~4-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Silver.  Gold would also complete successive advances of equal duration (~7 months/~31 weeks, when compared to Aug ’21 – Mar ’22) if it extends its overall advance into early-May ’23… 

The XAU & HUI remain strong, further validating their monthly trend signals and the lows set on Mar 6 – 10, ’23 in fulfillment of the 21 – 23 week high-high-high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression that has governed these indexes for a couple years.  On balance, this current rally should stretch into late-April/early-May ‘23.

April 12, 2023, Weekly Re-Lay Alert

04-13-23Gold & Silver remain on course for an overall rally from early-March into early-May ‘23.  That would fulfill a ~3-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Gold and a ~4-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Silver.  Gold would also complete successive advances of equal duration (~7 months/~31 weeks, when compared to Aug ’21 – Mar ’22) if it extends its overall advance into early-May ’23

As explained in multiple Weekly Re-Lay (and The Bridge) publications, Sept/Oct ’22 ushered in a 1 – 2 year period when Gold & Silver were entering the ‘sweet spot’ of inflationary factors – when inflation was/is still very much alive (just not accelerating upward) and when Bonds were initially bottoming and the Dollar was putting in a multi-month peak.

That projected initial surges into Jan/Feb ’23, which were followed by a pullback into intermediate cycle lows in late-Feb/early-March ’23 at the same time Bonds & Notes were projecting a major bottom.  Even though the Fed could still raise rates one or more times in the coming months, the markets are already turning their focus to the potential for lower interest rates in the coming 6 – 12 months… 

It created the ideal bullish scenario for precious metals – first from early-March into early-May ’23, then ultimately into late-’23… and potentially into 2024.  Why?

When inflation is raging, interest rates are usually rising and that keeps a lid on Gold & Silver prices.  In the case of Gold, it has been ‘treading water’ for the past two years – unfolding in what was perceived to be a ~2-year ‘flat correction’ – setting successive highs and then successive lows at similar levels… patiently waiting for interest rate fears to dissipate. 

When those interest rate hikes near an end – even as underlying inflation remains in place (and expected to see another move higher in 2024/25), it provides the optimum scenario for advances in Gold & Silver. 

When, as was the case in 2022, interest rate hikes are also helping to support the Dollar (another suppressing factor on metals), their reduction/removal has a dual-bullish impact on Gold & Silver.

Gold & Silver entered this period in late-2022 and reinforced it in early-March ’23.  If the outlook for Bonds is accurate, metals could be in this favorable time frame for another year.  That is not to say interest rates are the ONLY factor in spurring rallies or declines in metals.  Instead, it is to identify a period of time when rates should be more conducive for repeated gains in metals… a real ‘sweet spot’.

The XAU & HUI remain strong, further validating their monthly trend signals and the lows set on Mar 6 – 10, ’23 in fulfillment of the 21 – 23 week high-high-high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression that has governed these indexes for a couple years.  On balance, this current rally should stretch into late-April/early-May ‘23.

April 13, 2023, INSIIDE Track Update

04-15-23Gold & Silver remain bullish, fulfilling the outlook for a new 1 – 2 month surge from daily/weekly/ monthly cycle lows in early-March ’23.  In the ideal cyclic scenario, they would stretch final highs into early-May ‘23 and fulfill a ~3-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Gold and a ~4-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Silver. 

From a price and wave perspective, however, Gold & Silver have already fulfilled primary objectives for a new 1 – 2 month peak… even though additional upside is possible.  It’s just important to acknowledge that price targets have been met…

April 15, 2023, Weekly Re-Lay

Gold & Silver reached their primary upside price targets in mid-April, fulfilling the overwhelming majority of upside price potential for the early-March ’23 buy signals.  However, cycles still projected a final peak to wait until early-May ’23…hinting that the second half of April ’23 could be mostly sideways trading (consolidation before a brief spike high in early-May ’23).

That was addressed throughout the remainder of April as Gold & Silver neared the time for a 3 – 6 month peak to take hold.  All the while, they were still ‘casting shadows ahead’ – honing diverse expectations related to a projected 4Q 2023 surge that could coincide with a significant shift in the outlook for interest rates and the US Dollar… the ‘sweet spot’ of an overall inflation & interest rate cycle…

04-28-23Gold & Silver surged after bottoming in line with Gold’s intermediate support and its correction target (~1820/GCJ, triggering a multi-week buy signal on March 8) and Silver’s multi-month cycles.  The early-March ‘23 low fulfilled a ~6-month high (early-Mar ’22) – low (early-Sept ’22) – (low; early-March ’23) Cycle Progression and a precise 50% retracement in time (4 mos up into early-Jan ‘23, 2 mos down into early-Mar ‘23) in Silver. 

That reinforced the 1 – 3 month outlook for a new rally from early-March into early-May ’23.  A peak in early-May ’23 would fulfill a ~4-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Silver and a ~3-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Gold. 

Both have already reached upside price targets so an intermediate peak could take hold (or have taken hold) at any time.  The action of March/April ’23 further validates the 1 – 2 year trend, structure and outlook… linked to what was projected to be major lows set in the final third of 2022 – Silver in Sept ‘22 and Gold in Nov/Dec ‘22.  That dovetails with analysis in interest rates, the Dollar and other markets/factors that often help or hinder Gold/Silver rallies. 

A recent issue of The Bridge (a Weekly Re-Lay publication) further examined the wave structure and its potential for Gold & Silver… [refer to this and other publications for expanded analysis on Gold & Silver, including expectations for a late-2023 surge and subsequent advances in 2024/2025].

April 28, 2023, INSIIDE Track

05-03-23Gold & Silver are reinforcing signs of an intermediate peak, particularly in Gold, after reaching 1 – 2 month upside price targets from the buy signals triggered in early-March ’23.  As part of that peak, Gold & Silver could retest their highs after Gold turned its daily trend back up to begin the week.  It could test monthly resistance at 2063 – 2084.7/GCM.

That would fulfill the ‘window of opportunity for a quick spike up in the early days of May ‘23 – in line with 2, 3 & 4-month high-high cycles’.  The next phase of Gold’s 24-day low-high-high-(high) and 22-day low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progressions – that helped time the April 13 high – come into play on May 4 – 8.  The new intra-month trends should also help time a potential peak.

May 3, 2023, Weekly Re-Lay

Gold & Silver had consolidated after reaching their primary upside targets in mid-April, when they fulfilled the majority of upside price potential for the early-March ’23 buy signals.  Cycles still projected a final peak – a brief spike high – to take hold in early-May ’23 after a few weeks of sideways trading (consolidation) had transpired.

Precious metals entered the time for that anticipated 3 – 6 month peak while further honing the outlook for late-2023 through late-2024… and beyond.  The time for a top was imminent…

05-04-23Gold & Silver remain at or near their highs, fulfilling the outlook for a new 1 – 2 month surge from daily/weekly/monthly cycle lows in early-March ’23.  They have stretched final highs into early-May ‘23and fulfilled a ~3-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Gold and a ~4-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Silver… and did this after fulfilling intra-month analysis for an intervening sell-off into late-April. 

They are fulfilling this while attacking 1 – 2 month upside price targets (2060 – 2080/GC & 26.50/SI) from the buy signals triggered in early-March ’23.  As part of that peak, Gold & Silver have retested their highs in fulfillment of Gold’s daily uptrend.  Gold also tested monthly resistance at 2063 – 2084.7/GCM… where a peak is most likely.

That would fulfill the latest phase of Gold’s 24-day low-high-high-(high) and 22-day low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progressions – that helped time the April 13 high – which come into play on May 4 – 8.  A top has not yet been signaled so the price action of the next two days is critical.

The XAU & HUI surged into mid-April, peaking right at monthly resistance and also very close to monthly 21 MARC resistance, and then sold off into late-April… before bouncing into early-May cycle highs.  They matched the duration of their 2021/22 rallies (~28 weeks) while peaking ~12 months/~360 degrees from their mid-April ’22 multi-month highs.

Not only did the XAU rally for exactly the same amount of time as in 2021/22, it also matched the price magnitude of that advance.  The XAU needed to reach 144.84 to match that previous surge.  It peaked at 145.15/XAU

Price action, wave targets and structure, and related timing indicators have all been fulfilled and are signaling a top.  A new sell-off could take hold soon and spur these indexes lower into [reserved for subscribers].

May 4, 2023, INSIIDE Track Update

05-06-23Gold & Silver are reinforcing signs of an intermediate peak, particularly in Gold, after reaching 1 – 2 month upside price targets from the buy signals triggered in early-March ’23. 

As part of that peak, Gold & Silver did retest their highs with both spiking right up to the 2 – 3 month upside targets (2060 – 2080/GCM & ~26.50/SIN) and monthly resistance levels at 2063 – 2084.7/GCM & 26.47 – 26.84/SIN.

That fulfilled the ‘window of opportunity for a quick spike up in the early days of May ‘23 – in line with 2, 3 & 4-month high-high cycles’ discussed last week.  In doing so, it perpetuated daily cycles… 

The latest phase of Gold’s 24-day low-high-high-(high) and 22-day low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progressions – that helped time the April 13 high – came back into play on May 4 – 8 and helped time the May 4peak… with Gold & Silver failing to close above their mid-April highs despite retesting and/or spiking above them. 

That also allowed them to fulfill a ~3-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Gold and a ~4-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Silver… and did this after fulfilling intra-month analysis for an intervening sell-off into late-April. 

While that reinforces that an intermediate sell-off is likely in May ‘23, Gold and Silver are reinforcing signs that a 1 – 2 year uptrend is underway.  Both bottomed in line with multi-year cycle lows in late-2022 and have rallied, on balance, ever since then.

After an intervening, early-year correction, Gold and Silver again surged after bottoming in line with Gold’s intermediate support and its correction target (~1820/GCJ) and Silver’s multi-month cycles. 

The early-March ‘23 low fulfilled a ~6-month high (early-Mar ’22) – low (early-Sept ’22) – (low; early-March ’23) Cycle Progression and a precise 50% retracement in time (4 mos up into early-Jan ‘23, 2 mos down into early-Mar ‘23) in Silver… 

Gold & Silver sold off into late-April, in line with their intra-month trend structure and daily cycles – and then spiked higher in early-May ‘23, fulfilling a myriad of cycles that have been in focus since early-March.  As stated last week:

“…the 2 – 4 week and 1 – 2 month trends remain positive.  That leaves a small window of opportunity for a quick spike up in the early days of May ‘23 – in line with 2, 3 & 4-month high-high cycles.

If that is going to happen, it is possible it involves a quick knee-jerk reaction to whatever Fed news emerges this week (both the interest rate move AND the statement that follows it)…”

That is what unfolded and now sets the stage for a larger-magnitude correction…

The XAU & HUI are retesting the highs set in mid-April – that matched the duration of their 2021/22 rallies (~28 weeks) while peaking ~12 months/~360 degrees from their mid-April ’22 multi-month highs. 

The XAU also matched the price magnitude of that advance, reinforcing the likelihood for at least a 1 – 2 month peak.  That was expected to spur a sell-off into late-April, which unfolded before a bounce into cycle highs in early-May ‘23

As long as they do not close above their mid-April highs, a new sell-off should take hold and spur these indexes to move lower into [reserved for subscribers].

May 6, 2023, Weekly Re-Lay

Gold & Silver set highs on May 4th & 5th at 2085/GCM & 26.43/SIN!

Result

RESULT: That was in perfect fulfillment of these cycles & signals – ushering in the time for a multi-month peak (early-May 2023) and a prolonged corrective phase… biding time until cycles again turn positive in late-2023.  Gold & Silver are consolidating into mid-year while reinforcing the potential for the next strong advance to take place in 4Q 2023.

This March/April 2023 surge in Gold & Silver – with Gold rallying from ~1820 up to ~2050 in about six weeks’ time – adds another level of confirmation to major cycles that bottomed in late-2022… and to the outlook for 2024/2025.  New opportunities are likely to emerge leading into that time frame.