Cycles In Action

1-30-2006 - “As the sunspot cycle prepares to turn up (most likely by 2008, even though unprecedented solar flares have been seen during the downswing in sunspots), a marked increase in solar magnetic storms will begin to bombard the earth.  It is likely to have a destabilizing effect and accelerate or exacerbate some of these already tenuous situations...Another vulnerability has to do with disease...

It is interesting that the three major influenza outbreaks of the last century all coincided with… the sunspot cycle.  However, there is also a distinct decennial cycle - that impacts both Flu outbreaks and discoveries - as well.  Consider the following...

                1889/90 - Killer Influenza: China to US.                   1907/09 - SF Plague (following 1906 EQ)

                1918 - Killer Influenza (‘Spanish Flu’)                       1957/58 - Hong Kong Flu

                1968/69 - Asian Flu                                                         1977 - New strain of Flu discovered

                1997 - Another new strain of Flu discovered

                120, 100, 90, 50, 40, 30 & 10 years later is 2007--2009.

A few years ago, people were convinced the Ebola Virus was the next global pandemic.  Later, it was SARS.  Now, it is thought to be Bird Flu… Killer Disease cycles converge in 2007--2009… There are other ‘Disease’/’Plague’ cycles that reach fruition in 2008 - 2012.” 

INSIIDE Track, February 2006

2-27-2006 - “The Bible often refers to war and pestilence in the same passage.  Earthquakes also coincide with at least some of these mentions.  Celestial disturbances are also included in some of these discussions.  I cite this as a partial answer to a question I have not yet even posed.  In the spirit of the $10,000 Pyramid, the question to the answer is:

Things that closely link together cycles.

I am sometimes questioned why certain cycles are mentioned along with others (i.e. earthquake cycles with market cycles or Middle East cycles with disease cycles, sunspot cycles with war/peace cycles, etc.).  On the surface, they seem as different and diverse as night & day.

However, similar to night & day, they are often two sides of the same coin.  Just as nighttime and daytime combine to make one complete day, most of these diverse topics go together to make one complete cycle in human history.  It only takes a moderately attentive look at human history to note the coincidence of many - sometimes all - of these various cycles...

One only needs to look back at 1945 - 1950 to see the convergence of earthquake, climate, war, political and Middle East events.  A look at 1914 - 1918 shows an alignment of disease, political, war & Middle East events...

The same can be said about another time frame that was examined last month.  It is the period of 532 - 542 AD, in which a Major volcanic eruption, comet impact, or both coincided with the Justinian Plague and impacted political and war cycles for centuries to follow...The truly fascinating (and potentially terrifying) event is when all of these cycles converge in one narrow window of time...”

INSIIDE Track, March 2006

2-27-2006 (con’t) - “With that said - and with years of additional groundwork already laid - I want to elaborate on a topic I discussed last month:  Cycles of Disease.

Perhaps no other time in history can the discussion of disease and war be so closely linked together.  Although there have been times that certain accusations were leveled (like the one that accuses Jews of causing the Black Plague), and times when disease actually was used in battle, this is the period of human history when so much research and planning has gone into using disease as a weapon of war.

With that said, there was an intriguing editorial in October 2005 I have been intending to discuss.  The following contains some excerpts from it:

The Terrorist Among Us…

by Charles Krauthammer

“...perhaps the most momentous event of our lifetime...It was announced two weeks ago that American scientists have created a living, killing copy of the 1918 ‘Spanish’ flu.  This is big.  Very big.

....It’s re-creation is... the first ever resurrection of an ancient pathogen... “the agent of the most important disease pandemic in human history.”

Beyond the brilliance lies the sheer terror.  We have quite literally brought back to life an agent of near-biblical destruction.  It killed more people in six months than were killed in the four years of World War I.  It killed more humans than any other disease of similar duration in the history of the world...

...when the re-created virus was given to mice in heavily quarantined laboratories in Atlanta, it killed the mice ‘more quickly than any other flu virus that has ever been tested.’

...Not only has the virus been physically re-created, but its entire genome has now been published for the whole world, good people and very bad, to see.  The decision to publish was a very close and terrifying call… Can we figure out how to pre-empt it before it figures out how to evolve into a transmittable form with 1918 lethality that will decimate humanity?

...resurrection of the virus and publication of its structure opens the gates of hell.  Anybody, bad guys included, can now create it.  Biological knowledge is far easier to acquire for Osama bin Laden and friends than nuclear knowledge.

...Nature, which published the full genome sequence cites...Richard Ebright as warning that there is a significant risk ‘verging on inevitability’ of accidental release into the human population or of theft...

One batch of 1918 flu has the capacity for mass destruction that no Bond villain could ever dream of.  Why try to steal loose nukes in Russia?  A nuke can only destroy a city.  The flu virus, properly evolved, is potentially a destroyer of civilizations.  We might have just given it to our enemies.  Have a nice day.”

So, here we are...  entering a period (2007 - 2009) that is the decennial anniversary of every major flu outbreak or flu discovery of the past 120 years (see February 2006 INSIIDE Track for discussion on flu cycles from 1889/1890, 1907/1909, 1918, 1957/1958, 1968/1969, 1977 & 1997) and is exactly 120 years from the end of the last outbreak of Bubonic Plague in Europe (Russia, ending in 1889) & 450 years from a devastating outbreak of Bubonic Plague in London...

...and taking the biggest disease-related gamble in history.  Either this decision will provide the knowledge to combat H5N1 bird flu before it takes hold OR it will provide the knowledge to perpetuate bird flu as a means of terror & warfare.  Now, that’s a GAMBLE.

And I don’t suppose it is worth noting that in Sept. 2005 ABC News reported on the disappearance of 3 laboratory mice carrying the Bubonic Plague bacteria from a University in New Jersey that conducts anti-bioterrorism research for the US gov’t.

My purpose in mentioning this is NOT to sensationalize this event or to sound alarming.  In all probability, the 3 mice were probably the result of poor accounting and were never any threat to humans.  However, it reinforces the risk of trying to prevent potential outbreaks: The research might end up causing an outbreak itself (whether by criminal or accidental means).  This risk is rising steadily as the urgency for more research is felt... and that vicious circle will just naturally accelerate over time…

Could Disease Cycles play any role in this?”  [End of March 2006 INSIIDE Track analysis]

INSIIDE Track, March 2006

2-26-2009 - “17-Year Cycle in Disease...

“There were a few other events in the past 60 days that also warrant a review...

One very disconcerting revelation was the January 21/22 story that 40 al Qaeda terrorists were killed by the Black Death Plague.  Yes, that ‘Black Death’.  The one that decimated Europe - and some other nations - during the 1340’s (and had another surge in Holland, London and Vienna between 1663 - 1679). 

This Plague (also known as Bubonic Plague) appeared in the late-1320’s and early-1330’s and reached its peak in the late-1340’s.  It killed 30 - 60% of Europe’s population and 20-25% of the world’s population in the 1300’s.

680 Years (17-Year Cycle times 40 ‘periods of testing’) after its late-1320’s discovery and 340 Years (the mid-point of that 680-Year period and another higher-degree multiple of the 17-Year Cycle) after the 1663 - 1679 outbreak, the Black Death has reared its ugly head.  Of course, this time it could have been deliberate.  The question is “Can it be stopped as quickly as it was started?”

INSIIDE Track, March 2009

1-29-2010 - “The 17-Year Cycle

I have often discussed the 17-Year Cycle and how I believe it will impact Middle East Peace in 2010 & 2011 (17 Years from the Oslo Accord, the Oslo War, reconciliation between Israel & Rome & the Jerusalem Covenant).  It would not surprise me - as I have also discussed before - to see a crescendo in both events (war and peace) during this 2-year period… 

However, there are other events that could experience their own 17-Year Cycle in 2010 (or 2011).  One of those has to do with major floods… Another is linked to Japanese earthquakes.  2010 is 17 years from a major, 7.5 earthquake that hit Japan in June 1993 and an even larger 7.8 that hit Japan - and created a tsunami - in July 1993, ushering in a very unstable period. 

In and of itself, this would not mean a great deal other than its role in the ongoing 17 Year Cycle of Earth Disturbance Swarms. 

However, when it is combined with all of the other cycles in 2010 & 2011 - many of which apply directly to Japan - it takes on added significance…

June/July 2010 represents the culmination of one 17-Year Cycle in Japan and the onset of a new one... a type of transition that is also akin to the progression of ‘birth pains’.

The latest 17-Year Cycle began with back-to-back-to-back earthquakes in July 1993, 1994 & 1995…  The final years have also seen multiple major earthquakes (4 of 6.6 or greater magnitude) in Japan…       July 2010 is the transition point of this Cycle and July 2011 represents the early stages of a new one.  Both could be significant… Cycles of Destabilization & Instability… They’re all coming to a head in 2010/2011...

‘Signs in the Sun’

The (approximate) 11-Year Sunspot Cycle identifies the ebb and flow of solar activity.  This is important since this activity - massive explosions on the surface of the Sun - generate electro-magnetic storms that sometimes bombard earth.

Being a magnetic planet, and electro-magnetic creatures (why else would EKGs & EEGs be so effective), these storms - or lack thereof - have a profound influence on Earth, Earth’s climate (despite what a modern agenda says)... and Earth’s inhabitants.

As the data on page 5 demonstrates, this Sunspot Cycle is just beginning to turn back up… I have repeatedly demonstrated how this Cycle impacts wars - particularly in the Middle East - and, when coinciding with the geomagnetic, 17-Year Cycle (every 3 phases of the 11-Year Sunspot Cycle closely correlate to every 2 phases of the 17-Year Cycle) also time economic depressions, stock market collapses, banking failures, currency destabilization, earth disturbances, etc.  [This was all described in or before 2007.]

On a larger-degree basis, there are other things that this has timed - like Disease/Plague Outbreaks - and which could become an increased possibility in the coming years [see 2006 - 2009 analysis on Disease/Plague Cycles, including an uncanny 10-Year Cycle of Influenza/Virus Outbreaks that was powerfully reinforced by the 2009 outbreak of Swine Flu or H1N1].”

INSIIDE Track, February 2010

“Pestilence & Earth Disturbances...

04-30-09 - “The month of April was noteworthy, with respect to various topics… April will primarily be remembered for the event that came to light 120 geometric years from the 1889/90 Asiatic/Russian Flu outbreak, 90 geometric years after the 1918/1919 Spanish Flu outbreak and 40 years ‘of testing’ from the 1968/69 Asian Flu outbreak.  It was the 2009 Swine Flu (H1 N1 influenza) outbreak.

As described for many years (see accompanying excerpts for a couple examples from 2006), Influenza Cycles converged in 2007 - 2009 - precede longer-term (less specific) Disease/PlagueCycles that converge in 2010 - 2012 and were described at the same time.  From a cyclic perspective, this latest outbreak is not a surprise.

In addition to the cycles described in these excerpts, there are many others - several of which have been cited in the years preceding 2006.  2010 is exactly 500 years since the first (known) influenza pandemic occurred in 1510.

2010/2011 is 180 geometric years from a major influenza pandemic that originated in China in 1830/1831.  In that case, the 1830/1831 pandemic was the first of 3 major pandemics in a 7-8 year period, with 1833 being the second (moving from Russia into Europe) and 1836-1837 being the third (moving southward from these regions).

Of added interest is that a 4th pandemic took place in 1847 - 1848.  Once again, a very distinct 17-Year Cycle (1830/31 - 1847/48) pinpointed two parallel events that acted as bookends around a 17-Year Cycle of Influenza Outbreaks.

2009 - 2012 is 120 & 240 geometric years from Russia’s two most significant bouts with disease (Plague & influenza in 1889 - 1890 & Plague in 1770 - 1772).  These are just a few more examples of why I have been focused on… previous periods of ‘pestilence’ (following a culmination of influenza cycles in 2009).

One of the intriguing aspects of this has to do with its close correlation - throughout recorded history - to earth disturbances, particularly volcanic eruptions.  However, there is another natural event that has coincided even closer with many of these Disease Cycles...  

Solar Surges & Cycles...

Once again, the evidence argues that the Sun is a major factor in our lives… I believe the Sun is a major influence in every aspect of our lives.  Another of those aspects - in addition to the remote possibility that it warms the Earth - is that of nutrition and vitality (the opposite of disease & pestilence).

[On a sidenote, it is interesting that one of the biggest foci of recent years - in the vitamin/nutrition sector - has been Vitamin D, and the belief that we are severely lacking in our intake of it... another Sun/health/disease connection.]

However, it is NOT just solar surges (peaks in the 11-Year Sunspot Cycle, etc.) that can be unsettling.  It is also the troughs or nadirs - in the various Solar Cycles - that challenge our well-being as a planet.  Again, this is just like in trading.  The most volatility and uncertainty often occurs at the extremes (highs AND lows)...

Solar Extremes...

A perfect example of the latter extreme (Solar Cycle lows) was the rampant spread of plague and disease during the entire Little Ice Age, when solar activity (sunspots & solar storms) was severely suppressed - sometimes non-existent.

One of the most serious examples - at the beginning of the Little Ice Age - was the Black Death Plague of 1347 - 1351, which killed 40 - 60% of Europe’s population (as many as 50 million Europeans) and 15 - 20% of the world’s population (75 million)... and was part of a much larger cycle... 

I have often explained my theory on Heliocentric Years (a term I coined to describe a solar ‘year’ comprised of approximately 11 earth years) and Geometric Heliocentric Years (periods of 15, 30, 45, 60 & 90 Heliocentric Years).  It is a way of viewing time from a geometric, sun-centered perspective and it has divided major epochs in human history.

660 years - or 60 Heliocentric Years - from 1347 - 1351 is 2007 - 2011.

Another serious outbreak in Europe - though ‘only’ taking hundreds of thousands of lives, not tens of millions - occurred in 1665 - 1682, when multiple outbreaks hit London, Germany, Netherlands and culminated with Austria.  This coincided with the lowest level of sunspot activity in centuries (possibly millennia), between 1650 - 1700 and peaked with the Great Plague of Vienna in 1679 - 1682. 

330 years - or 30 Heliocentric Years - from the culmination of this series of outbreaks is 2009 - 2012.

This outbreak overlapped a similar plague that hit the Ottoman Empire…

[NOTE:  I feel compelled to again emphasize some important points when discussing serious issues like disease.  It can be synopsized by my goal to be an ‘Aware-ist’, NOT an alarmist.  Cyclesare not a crystal ball but do identify periods when certain events have a statistically-greater chance for recurrence.  They should be treated in that way. 

This is NOT discussed in an attempt to sensationalize something this serious and/or tragic.  However, it is important to be aware of the unique sequence - on a rather consistent basis - of cycleslike these.  It was important to be aware of War Cycles in late-2001 (detailed in 1999 - early-2001) and of Stock Market Crash Cycles in 2007-2010 (detailed throughout 2007).  It is also important to be aware of Disease Cycles…

And, it is not a sudden interest - after the fact.  This is merely a review of a discussion - with regard to Influenza Cycles in 2009 and Disease/Plague Cycles in 2010 - 2012 - that has been going on for many years (as evidenced by the quotes from early-2006).  Please treat this discussion with common sense and appropriate emotional restraint.] 

What is interesting is that we are currently in one of the lowest periods of solar activity in many decades.  One has to go back to 1913 to find a year with more days - of no sunspots - than what took place in 2008.      And, the pace for the first three months of 2009 was even more extreme (87% of days with no sunspots, as opposed to 73% in 2008).”

INSIIDE Track, May 2009

“’09-’11: Tieing it All Together..

05-28-09 - The period of late-2007 into 2011 has been forecast - for almost a decade - to usher in momentous changes in the Middle East and in the overall geopolitical structure.

The period of late-2007 - late-2008 (Jewish Year of 5768) was projected to see a dramatic turnaround - both a culmination and a transition - in many arenas, including the financial markets.  The 17-Year Cycle corroborated this and identified late-2007 as the time when a 1-3 year/50% decline in Stock Indices should take hold…

As already discussed, disease cycles accelerate into that time frame...

2010/2011 is 180 geometric years from a major influenza pandemic that originated in China in 1830/1831... and actually resulted in 3 major pandemics in a 7-8 year period.

2009 - 2012 is 120 & 240 geometric years from Russia’s most significant bouts w/disease (Plague & influenza in 1889 - 1890 & Plague in 1770 - 1772)… 

Disease, however, is often a secondary event (the result of some other event).  It is more often the ‘effect’ but not the ‘cause’.  In each of the three major periods just cited, major troughs in the solar cycle, the effects of the Little Ice Age, the consequential crop & wealth losses, famine and poor health (‘hygiene’) standards laid the groundwork for these diseases to take hold.

This is why I want to move beyond the discussion on Disease Cycles and on to (or back to) some other cycles that are of equal concern.”

INSIIDE Track, June 2009

09-01-09 - 2010 - 2011 - The Turning Point...

Anyone who has followed news of the past month knows that great attempts are being made to educate the masses on dealing with H1N1 (the artist - or virus - formerly known as Swine Flu). 

These discussions range from how schools are being instructed to handle cases... to how individuals and families should operate in the event of a severe outbreak.

I have heard more than one ‘expert’ describe the possibility that social habits and behavior could be forced to change dramatically - with less unnecessary gatherings (professional sports events???) and more time staying at home for most people.”

INSIIDE Track, September 2009

Plague Cycles Revisited

8/04/09 - China Cuts Off Town After 3 Plague Deaths - Chicago Tribune

“Beijing - Chinese health officials have cordoned off a remote town after three deaths caused by the rare but deadly pneumonic plague...The first victim was a 32-year-old herdsman who died Thursday, four days after falling ill with a fever and cough.  State radio reported that the man contracted the illness from his dog, which apparently was infected by a flea.  The herdsman’s 37-year-old neighbor died Sunday, and a 64-year-old man died Monday.

Nine other people were reported to be ill or under observation, one of them in critical condition... ”Experts continue to carry out disinfecting and pest-control work and are tracing people in contact with victims for quarantine purposes...”

Pneumonic plague is the deadlier relative of the notorious bubonic plague, which killed millions of people in Europe starting in the 14th century.  Spread person to person through the air, it usually kills its victims unless they are treated with antibiotics... So far the disease does not appear to be causing the panic brought on by the far less deadly swine flu, the threat of which has prompted Chinese authorities to put thousands of people into quarantine, among them U.S. tourists.”         

INSIIDE Track, September 2009

10-30-14: “In the last issue, I provided a synopsis of the cyclical synergy coming into play in the next several years.  There were three phases of that synergy:

                1 - Normal (Market) Cycles Synergy

                2 - National Cycles Synergy

                3 - Natural Cycles Synergy

The first of these phases had to do with when normal market cycles - the ones that consume the majority of the analysis & focus in this publication - converge in a given time period.  Sometimes that is weekly, sometimes monthly and sometimes it is yearly (or multi-year) cycles.  However, it always involves market cycles.

Then there are times when synergy of national or geopolitical cycles demands attention.  Similarly, there are times when synergy of natural cycles (earthquakes, volcanoes, sunspots & other phenomenon in nature) demands attention…

Signs in the Sun?

The third synergy of cycles - Natural Cycles - includes the topic of solar activity.  And, as detailed before, that has sometimes coincided with Disease Cycles - a topic about which I have been bombarded with inquiries lately. 

I will elaborate on that next month but have reprinted some previous analysis (page 5) that discusses this correlation and that looks to 2017--2019 when they recur...

Disease Cycles: 2017--2019  (2006 Reprints)

 1-30-2006 - “As the sunspot cycle prepares to turn up (most likely by 2008, even though unprecedented solar flares have been seen during the downswing in sunspots), a marked increase in solar magnetic storms will begin to bombard the earth.  It is likely to have a destabilizing effect and accelerate or exacerbate some of these already tenuous situations...Another vulnerability has to do with disease...

It is interesting that the three major influenza outbreaks of the last century all coincided with peaks in the sunspot cycle.  However, there is also a distinct decennial cycle - that impacts both Flu outbreaks and discoveries - as well.  Consider the following...

                1889/90 - Killer Influenza: China to US.                   1907/09 - SF Plague (following 1906 EQ)

                1918 - Killer Influenza (‘Spanish Flu’)                       1957/58 - Hong Kong Flu

                1968/69 - Asian Flu                                                         1977 - New strain of Flu discovered

                1997 - Another new strain of Flu discovered

                120, 100, 90, 50, 40, 30 & 10 years later is 2007--2009…

10-29-14 -- These two excerpts are reprinted to lay the foundation for a future discussion and to respond to a flurry of inquiries regarding the current Ebola outbreak.  The sunspot/disease link discussed in the 1/30/06 excerpt was precisely & profoundly fulfilled with the ’Swine Flu’ outbreak of 2009 (3 years later, but right when projected) - now believed to have claimed about 300,000 lives. 

And that projects focus to 2018/2019 - the next phase of Influenza’s unique decennial pattern (a ~10-Year Cycle) and the time when the next Solar Cycle (25) should be turning back up. 

130, 110, 100, 60, 50, 40, 20 & 10 years from all of these Flu outbreaks is 2017--2019, with 2018/2019 possessing the greatest synergy.  But, that is just one particular ’disease’.”

INSIIDE Track, November 2014

“W.C.C. II - When Cycles Collide in Climate, Sunspots, Volcanoes & Commodities

11, 17, 22, 40, 100 & 200 -Year Cycles Colliding in late-2010’s

11-27-15: I receive many inquiries regarding my outlook for climate change (usually directing me to analysis predicting an imminent Ice Age or the burning up of the planet) as well as corresponding analysis on solar cycles… and commodity (food crisis) cycles… 

As I have stressed repeatedly over the past couple decades, I view myself - and try to convey my analysis accordingly - as an ‘Aware-ist’… NOT an ALARMIST(!!!).            So, while I am convinced that several cycles are entering a period of increasing intensity, I try not to convey apocalyptic intonations…

Many events - if you read about them in advance - would sound apocalyptic… and probably seem that way to those directly involved.  But, from a global perspective, they are just big challenges… not a collapse.

A prime example was when earth disturbance cycles projected Major earthquakes for Chile in 2010, Japan in 2011 & North America for 2012 (see Earth In Transition: 3+3 Reports at http://www.insiidetrack.com/pdf/INSIIDETrackSR200912ET3+3IIem.pdf). 

At the time, the discussion frequently cited the potential for a nuclear ‘incident’, similar to - but worse than - what had recently been seen in Japan.  One quote - from 1/29/10 - explained these massive earthquake cycles and stated: “2010 could/should see some major activity but 2011 is expected to overshadow whatever occurs in 2010.” 

That was written as the world was reeling from the Jan. 2010 Haiti earthquake and in the context of expecting a worse earthquake in Chile soon after… and then in Japan between late-2010 and early-2012 (later narrowed down to early-2011).  The potential ramifications - if those cycles were accurate - were startling!  In many respects, that could sound apocalyptic… but on a regional basis (not to diminish the tragedy of them). 

Chile was rocked by one of the five strongest earthquakes in recorded history - in Feb. 2010 - and Japan was devastated by a massive quake and nuclear incident in March 2011. 

However, that didn’t drive civilization into caves and off the grid.  While it may seem like I am belaboring this point - which I am - it is for good reason… to place these expectations (in this case, for an impending food crisis) in the proper perspective…

To get the ball rolling, let me give a brief overview of what I expect in the coming years.  This outlook touches on each of the topics cited in the title on page 4 and is a very general description of what I could see unfolding…

-- First, with respect to climate, I anticipate a similar scenario (of contrasts) to that described in Nov. 2014… Simply put, I could see global temperatures - or at least some measure of them - extending their warming trend a bit more as we move toward 2019/2020. 

There are multiple reasons for that (most will be elaborated later).  Among those are long-term cycles of warming & cooling - cycles that range from 22--25 years (partially linked to sunspot cycles) up to 100--200 years, as well as ~500 & ~1,000-year cycles of climate vacillation. 

If there is one thing that is constant through all those cycles - it is change.  In fact, change is the only constant in the ongoing oscillation of global temperatures…

In addition, on a smaller-based cycle, I would not be surprised to see another ‘post-El Nino’ warming spike in 2016 - a bit like what was seen in the late-1990’s and the early-1980’s (a 17-Year Cycle).  That could help spur a final ‘rally’ in global warming - into the late-2010’s - after 1--2 decades of stagnating temps since the late-1990’s. 

That would also be in synch with the 40-Year Cycle & 80-Year Cycles of the past few centuries (including warm-ups in 1850’s - coming out of Little Ice Age - and in the 1890’s, 1930’s & 1970’s, following a 40-Year period of generally cooling temps from the peaks of the late-1930’s) - both of which portend either a culminating warm-up in the second half of the 2010’s and/or a multi-decade warming peak near 2019/2020.

Prior to the late-1850’s were the late-1810’s and the end of the Dalton Minimum (1820) - a low-point in global temps - and the late-1770’s, another cooling phase w/anecdotal evidence like New York Harbor freezing in 1780 - allowing people to walk from Manhattan to Staten Island. 

The 1850’s was the transition point when a 40-Year Cycle Progression shifted from low-low-low to the subsequent high (late-1890’s)--high (late-1930’s)--high (late-1970’s)--high (late-2010’s)… a textbook, 40-Year low-low-low-high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression - targeted for ~2019/2020...

2019 is also a convergence of sunspot & solar storm cycles (including 30 years from the 1989 storm and 160 years - 4 of the 40-Year Cycles - from the 1859 Carrington Event)… 

From a market perspective, diverse indicators & cycles argue for commodities (& metals) to see an initial surge in 2016 with another surge into 2019--2021. 

That ties into analysis for 2016 to be The Golden Year - the first phase of a bull market in Gold & Silver.  And, 2016/2017 should usher in Dollar troubles.”

INSIIDE Track, December 2015

2-27-19 - “Outlook 2019 - The ~11-Year Cycle

The Sun has at least three intriguing cycles that repeatedly emerge in the markets, in geopolitics, in military conflict, and in most aspects of life.  The biggest (of these three, although there are also longer-term cycles as well) is the ~40-Year Cycle of the Great Conveyor Belt of the Sun.

To summarize it, this is the plasma flow that circumvents the Sun, moving from its equator out toward one of the poles and then - after sinking lower - back toward its equator.  It takes approximately 40 years for that to transpire… and then it occurs toward the o pole and back. 

So, a total circuit would take roughly 80 years (perfectly coinciding with the 80-Year Cycle of War that comes back into play in 2021, linked to the US entry into WWII in 1941, into the Civil War in 1861 and out of the Revolutionary War in 1781.  In the colonies, England and Europe, that has been documented for a few hundred years before 1781.).

If I understand the process correctly, the initial phase - flowing from equator to pole - goes along the surface of the Sun and ‘sweeps’ up decaying sunspots and their related magnetivity and then drops them off at the poles. 

As a result, it greatly impacts the magnetic force of the Sun… which impacts subsequent sunspots and the magnetic barrages periodically flung at Earth (CMEs)… which could have an exponentially greater impact as Earth converts to a digital world.

As a result, it would stand to reason that the fluctuations of the Great Conveyor Belt of the Sun dramatically influence the other two primary cycles in this discussion.

To and Away

The second solar-related cycle is the 17-Year Cycle that impacts some form of magnetic interplay between the Sun and Earth (the ‘to and away’ interaction as described by David Junkett at https://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/A:1005075703810). 

This has also been repeatedly discussed over the past two decades.  It has its strongest impact at the 34-year point (two full cycles), when it coincides with three of the following solar-related cycles...

Cause and Effect

Perhaps the best-known solar cycle is the one that governs the ebb and flow of sunspots or solar storms.  It is an ~11-Year Cycle (averages out to 11.2 years) that has an uncanny knack for also linking monetary and military events of cause and effect.  Perhaps a better way of describing that would be the Cycle of Unintended Consequence.  

Events during one phase of this cycle often have a distinct and irrefutable link to events during the next phase.  In many cases, those phases also link similar players or similar events…

Most recently, the last two phases began with the events of 1997 - 1998 (11 years after the stock market crash of 1987) when the economic world was rocked by a pair of crises - the Asian Financial Crisis and the Russian Ruble Crisis - in 1997 & 1998.

US & Western stock markets were able to mount a final surge before a worldwide stock malaise took hold in 2000 - 2002. 

However, it was 11 years after the events of 1997 - 1998, in 2008 - 2009, when a larger global collapse ensued.

As time has unfolded, it has become clear that the Western financial and economic collapse of 2008/ 2009 drove countries like China & Russia into closer cooperation with one another, as an alternative to the US & Europe (see previous discussions on multiple unions spearheaded by China & Russia). 

This cycle comes back into play in 2019 - 2020 and is likely to perpetuate/foster that alignment…

East vs West

One of the reasons for addressing these synergistic cycles is to highlight the recent phases and how they have timed this dramatic evolution of powerful (antagonistic) competitors to US/Europe. 

First, there was WWII in which the US & USSR fought against Germany and Japan (who had invaded China, loosely aligning China & USSR). 

11 years later, it was the Korean Conflict coming on the heels of the Chinese Civil War.  The US/UN were ultimately pitted against the Soviets and Chinese - a division that is back in vogue now (even as North Korea is in the headlines 66 years after the 1953 ‘end’ to that war).

In the early-1960’s (see 1963 - 1964 phase), the US was pushed to the brink of war with the USSR over the Cuban Missile Crisis (late-’62) a little before the Gulf of Tonkin incident - the escalator of US involvement in Viet Nam.  Ultimately, it was China & the USSR on the side of N. Viet Nam.

The next two phases saw similar events (including those related to Nixon and to the rise of major economic reforms in China) but it wasn’t until the 1997 - 1998 & 2008 - 2009 phases - of this particular ~11-Year Cycle - that economic events pushed both nations to the edge of a financial abyss… and led to the developments in recent years. 

So, what could 2019 - 2020 have in store?  [See table of page 3 for ‘Global Shaping Events’ that have timed stock market panics on a consistent basis, more recently coinciding with China/US struggles.]…

Global Indices

02/28/19 - China’s Shanghai Composite remains in an overall downtrend (from the mid-2015 peak) that could stretch into June/July 2020 - when multi-year cycles converge…” 

INSIIDE Track, March 2019

October 2022 - “Based on analysis of a consistent 6-Year Cycle, a Sunspot-related 11 - 12-Year Cycle, and a ~40-Year Cycle, I expect California and other parts of the West to see an abrupt turnaround in precipitation during the 2022-23 & 2023-24 rainy seasons (’water years’).

In recent decades, heavy rain years arrived in 2017 (highest total since records began), 2011, 2005, 1998, & 1993. 6, 12, 18, 24 & 30 years from those spikes pinpoint 2022/23 as a prime candidate for increased precipitation - based on a 6-Year Cycle.

Looking back over the past ~80 years, the water years of 1941, 1952, 1963, 1974, 1986, 1998 & 2011 produced surges in precipitation - averaging about 35% above the annual average amount.

2022/23 & 2023/24 are the next phase in this ~11/12-Year Cycle.

That is also when a 40-Year Cycle comes back into play - linked to increased rainfall in the early1900’s, early-1940’s & early-1980’s, following extreme dry years in each of the preceding decades.

Following the 1976 year of extreme drought, 1982 - 83 saw consecutive water years of extreme precipitation - combining to create the greatest 2-year period of rain since records began in the late1890’s.

Could 2022/23 or 2023/24 repeat this pattern and perpetuate that 40-Year Cycle?

Related El Nino cycles focus on 2023/24 for another chance for increased precipitation… based on cycle analysis…

While most meteorologists are forecasting another intensifying year of drought in the West (for the 2022/23 rainy season), INSIIDE Track is reiterating ongoing analysis for a dramatic shift to Deluge Cycles this winter. Flooding will be the bigger concern!

The water years of 2022/23 & 2023/24 are forecast to bring a substantial increase in precipitation… just as in 1982 & 1983.. just as in 1942 - 1944… just as in 1902 - 1904… and just as in 1862 - 1864... each time following 5 - 10 year periods of major drought. Get your umbrellas ready!...

2022/23 was/is projected to usher in Deluge Cycles with California forecast to see a repeat of 1982/83 (40 years prior) - when it experienced the two rainiest years since record keeping began. It is linked (by the 40-Year Cycle) to years of multiple extreme or record North American/US floods in 1942 - 1944, 1902 - 1904 and even 1862 (- 1864) - the year of ‘The Great Flood of 1862’.

That was the largest flood to hit CA/NV/OR in recorded history.

The outlook for the next two ‘water years’ or ‘rainy years’ in 2022/23 & 2023/24 remains that the Western US should see copious amounts of precipitation... despite the dire drought predictions from all the ‘experts’…

Just as INSIIDE Track was accurately forecasting inflation for 2020 - 2022 - in contrast to what the Fed and economists were fearing in 2020 (deflation) - flooding (not drought) and topsoil erosion is likely to become a bigger concern in 2023 - 2024.

That is the same time Solar Cycles and Volcano Swarm Cycles collide - portending natural based upheaval in our world. Also linked to these Natural and Solar-based cycles, a major solar storm is also projected for 2023 (and potentially 2024). It’s All Connected!”

INSIIDE Track, 40-Year Cycle - Drought to Deluge in 2022/23

08-29-15 - “40 years ago, California suffered severe drought in 1976--1977, exacerbating an already-challenging period of food production in America.  2016--2017 completes a 40-Year Cycle from then and could possess some parallels.  Before delving into that, however, let’s go back 200+ years and trace the progression of this 40-Year Cycle through the past two centuries.  (As I will discuss next month, it goes back much farther than 200 years.)

1770’s

The 1770’s - when discussing food crises - are best known for the Bengal Famine of the early-1770’s.  That Indian-based famine - that lasted several years - took over 10 million lives and is described as worse (in various respects) than the Black Plague that devastated Europe.

That famine is considered 1 of the 5 worst famines in history (right alongside the Soviet Famine of the 1930’s - also part of this 40-Year Cycle - that similarly claimed ~10 million lives).  India suffered another devastating famine - killing ~11 million - in 1783, just a few years after the 1770’s.  So, that ~decade claimed over 20 million lives with famine.

About the same time (1770’s), severe drought hit Colonial Mexico and drove the price of maize to astronomical levels.  In Europe, the (Czech) Great Famine - killing hundreds of thousands - began a series of famines that also hit Germany & Sweden.

1810’s

Diverse records show the appearance of drought in the 1810’s, 40 years later, ranging from S. Africa to China** and to America.  Multiple sources describe a 6-year drought in the Midwest in the 1810’s (as well as in the Indian Southwest).  Other sources also document famine in the early-1810’s in Europe… due to cold.

[**In another corroborating ‘factoid’, China experienced a 40-Year Cycle of famine, beginning in 1810 & 1811 & culminating in 1846 & 1849.  A minimum of 45 million people are believed to have died as a result of this 40-Year Cycle of famine.]

However, none of this compared to the impact of Tambora’s eruption in 1815 and the ensuing ‘Year Without a Summer’ in 1816 (reinforcing that a Food Crises can be triggered by diverse climate & meteorological extremes - from drought to flood and from excessive heat to cold).

In many areas (Canada being one of them), the worst drought in hundreds of years followed.  Famine is reported in 1816 & 1817, in many regions around the globe… particularly in the middle (and more densely populated) latitudes.

While Tambora receives most of the blame for this climatologically-challenging time, it was actually the synergy of multiple eruptions in 1812--1815 that contributed to the cooling climate.  They include:

1812: Initial eruptions of Tambora as well as eruptions of La Soufriere (Caribbean) & Awu (also in Indonesia).  These coincided with another seismic event - the New Madrid quakes in America, 4 devastating earthquakes (7.0--8.1) in an 8-week period.

1813: Suwanosejima (Japan).

1814: Mayon (Philippines).

1815: Tambora main event.

All of these exacerbated an already-tenuous time on earth, particularly with regard to agriculture & food production.  There is even thought to have been an 1809 eruption - perhaps in Latin America - that ushered in that period & began the cooling.

1850’s

40 years later, the Civil War Drought of 1856--1865 hit N. America; According to ‘Drought Research’ (http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/drought/nineteenth.shtml), there were three severe droughts in the 40-year period between the mid-1850’s and mid-1890’s (the second one being spaced at the midpoint in the mid-1870’s) with the Civil War Drought hitting Texas & the West particularly bad (‘worse than Dust Bowl’, 80 years later):

“From the mid 1850s to the mid 1860s the West and Plains were struck by a severe drought. Years ago, David Stahle of the University of Arkansas had used tree ring analyses to suggest that, in Texas, this was the worst drought to strike in the last 300 years, worse than the Dust Bowl drought.”

In textbook cycle evolution, the 1850’s drought presaged certain things about the 1890’s drought… that were an unrecognized precursor to the Dust Bowl drought of the mid-1930’s (40, 40, 40).  They are all connected!  1850’s, 1890’s & 1930’s… a precise 40-Year Cycle.  According to the same source:

“The dust storms of the 1930s were unprecedented, during the historical record, in their severity. Before the expansion of agriculture in the Plains, the natural prairie grass bound the surface together even during droughts. It was the removal of these grasses, and replacement with wheat that could not survive, that exposed the soil to wind erosion in the 1930s...during the 1890s, it was clear that trouble was brewing. Dust storms did afflict the Plains during that drought...probably as a result of overgrazing of natural grasses by imported cattle.”

In another intriguing parallel, the combined effect of that trio of droughts (1850’s, 1870’s & 1890’s)  triggered government action:

“The 1890s drought was a wake up call that in the future, if further catastrophes were to be prevented, the Federal government would have to take the lead role in development of water resources, irrigation and power. The 1890s drought is partly responsible for the beginning of Federally-driven irrigated agriculture with the Reclamation Act of 1902.”

1890’s

The 1890’s - as just noted - were another decade with global famine, including the Ethiopian Great Famine (1888--1892) that killed 1/3 of the population, a Russian famine that killed about 1/2 million people, China (leading to the Boxer Rebellion) and in India (again; killing ~6 million over 6-7 years).

There was also the Australian ‘Federation Drought’ beginning in 1895 (lasted into 1903), initially triggered by an El Nino year in 1896.  A heat wave hit in late 1897 and set records (that still stand) in 1898.  A combination of 3 El Nino events, beginning in 1895--1898 (then 1899--1900 & 1901--1903), devastated parts of Australia.

The interesting thing is that this Australian drought piggy-backed crop failures (wheat) in Argentina in 1893 - that largely contributed to the U.S. Panic of 1893.  (Illustrating the dynamic link between farming & financial markets in the 1800’s, a bubble-and-crash was seen in Wheat AND a financial market ’panic’ or ’crash’ was experienced during each phase of the 40-Year Cycle - in the 1810’s, 1850’s & 1890’s.

The 1930’s & 1970’s were not much different - except for the fact the former was a deflationary extreme and the latter, inflationary…

This drives home the point that it is NOT critical to identify the cause and effect since the sequence of events often alters.  It IS important, however, to recognize that all of these challenges (SYNERGY) have recurred on a VERY consistent, 40-year basis.

As Goes California...

Returning to an earlier topic, California’s current drought has been compared to another devastating drought …in 1895.  The current drought is thought to be the worst since 1895.  So, California has at least two (40-Year Cycle) links…  Will the coming years complete a third?”

INSIIDE Track, September 2015

09-29-15 - “Throughout history, there has always been a vacillating cycle between times of shortage & times of plenty.  An oft-quoted example comes from the book of Genesis, when Joseph had been sold into slavery and ends up as second-in-command over all of Egypt - the political powerhouse of the day.

Based on Pharoah’s two corroborating dreams, Joseph determines that a devastating 7-Year Cycle of famine is on the horizon.  However, the good news is that a prosperous 7-Year Cycle of plenty will precede it.  With the proper leadership & disciplined approach, Egypt has the potential to make it through that tumultuous 7-Year Cycle (the second one) and remain a powerful nation.  Similar to the 40-Year Cycle, this 7-Year Cycle also was a time of preparation.

...But let’s get back to this 7-Year Cycle and link it to our over-arching discussion on the 40-Year Cycle…

40-Year Cycle Phases

Funny enough, this examination of the 40-Year Cycle deals primarily with a ~7-year period, every 40 years, that is almost as momentous (as Egypt’s).

In the case of the present day, key 40-Year Cycle events were expected - and materialized - in 2011--2014 (peak in Gold, moves to supplant US Dollar as global kingpin, culmination of Stock-flation, etc.) - as the latest 40-Year Cycles were transitioning - but the ‘stuff’ is expected to really ‘hit the fan’ in 2015--2021… a 7-Year period…

Swarms & Synergy

When examining these periods, one principle is vitally important - Synergy.

It is inadequate to look for one major event - repeating through history - and try to measure its cyclicality.  That is where most skeptics naively dismiss cycles and look no farther.   Instead, it is the groupings of events that are key.  I often refer to these groupings as ‘swarms’.

But, this synergistic principle (swarms) also applies to food & crop crises and to droughts & famines.  As demonstrated last month, the 1770’s, 1810’s, 1850’s & 1890’s each experienced ‘swarms’ of food crises, climate-altering events and all-out famines… at consistent, 40-year intervals.

Before continuing the discussion on that progressing pattern (from the 1890’s to the present), I want to touch on the overlapping 80-Year Cycle and what it timed before the 1770’s (part of the 1690’s--1770’s--1850’s--1930’s--2010’s cycle)...

1690’s

The 1690’s was another devastating decade that witnessed a famine in Scotland (killing ~10% of the population), a famine in France (killing 2 million), a famine in Estonia (150--175,000 deaths) and a famine in Finland (killing ~1/3 of the total population) - in addition to several other food crises.

The sum total effect was a devastating blow to Europe during this narrow window of time…

Rejoining that 40-Year Cycle discussion where we left off last month (1890’s), the next phase - and one of the most notorious and oft-cited - occurred during the depths of the Great Depression...

1930’s

The 1930’s are best known for the Dust Bowl that decimated the nation’s heartland in America & Canada.  It coincided with the 1936 N. American Heat Wave - considered to be the worst heat wave in the modern history of this continent.

However, that Food Crisis paled by comparison - at least when counting lives lost - with 1 of the 5 worst famines in history - the Soviet Famine of the 1930’s.  The interesting thing about both of these Food Crises is that they had a strong ‘human-induced’factor exacerbating them.

In the case of the Soviet Famine, it was primarily human-caused - the result of another wonderful social experiment in collectivist farming.  Regardless of its underlying cause, it resulted in a widespread famine that claimed as many as 9 million lives.

In contrast, the Dust Bowl was a synergistic combination of poor farming techniques (for decades prior), leaving little topsoil when trying times struck the landscape, excessive heat, drought & the economic challenges of the Great Depression.  It struck primarily in 1934, 1936 & 1939--1940.

And, at the same time (1936), China was hit with its second famine of the 1930’s - that claimed over 5 million lives (the preceding one - caused by drought - accounted for 3 million deaths).  That’s ~17 million deaths in 3 famines - in USSR & China!

[China has its own cycle governing the most devastating famines - with the two deadliest of the past 150 years arriving 80 years apart… in the late-1870’s & late 1950’s… accounting for about 10--12 million & 20--40 million deaths, respectively.]

1970’s

40 years later, the inflationary 1970’s arrived.  And with that, so did another Food Crisis - created by a combination of natural and man-made events.

From a climate perspective, there had been a progressive, steady cooling since the 1930’s - creating alarm.  At the time, a notorious ecologist - Kenneth Watt - explained in great detail how the dramatic cooling of the preceding decades was a certain harbinger of an impending Ice Age.

He explained how by the 1990’s, global temps would drop about 4 more degrees and by 2000, it would be 10--11 degrees colder.  Can anyone spell hyperbole?...

Other scientists & climatologists jumped on the bandwagon - as did Time & Newsweek, featuring articles in 1974 & 1975, titled: ‘Another Ice Age?’ and ‘The Cooling World’.  According to Newsweek, the  evidence supporting catastrophic global cooling had “...begun to accumulate so massively that meteorologists are hard-pressed to keep up with it.”

That 1975 article also warned that global cooling could usher in a ’drastic decline in food production’.  So, naturally, when 1976 & 1977 ushered in one of California’s worst droughts, the obvious cause was front & center on everyone’s mind.

While this topic evokes heated debate, there is little denying that the media was hyping global cooling throughout the 1970’s.  So, it was a case of perception governing rash reactions and/or public policy - the proverbial tail wagging the dog - without considering their future consequences.

While researching the specifics of that discussion, I found a website - populartechnology.net - that contained over 110 links to articles from 1970--1979 - building on these dire assumptions.  These articles included a CIA paper as well as articles in the NY Times & Washington Post… and many regional papers.  It was NOT just an isolated incident.

Most of them blamed air pollution for the global cooling and many of them warned of the coming food crisis that would inevitably result from that undeniable science.  Hmmm.

Believe it or not, I am not attempting to stoke that debate.  Instead, I am attempting to provide a snapshot of the overriding events and reactions of that period… since they have future ramifications.  One of the reasons for doing so is my suspicion that decisions of the 1970’s laid the groundwork for impending challenges in the 2010’s.

In a cyclic twist, the same governor presided over California when it was plunged into that previous drought AND its current, devastating drought - 1--2 years after he took office (Jerry Brown).  The more things change, the more they stay the same. The difference is that the 1976--’77 drought was much shorter-lived than the current one… and CA agriculture was not as massive…”

INSIIDE Track, October 2015

10-29-15 - “100-Year Cycle Synergy

Let’s return to a related topic… The eruption of Mt. Tambora (1815) and the ensuing ‘Year Without a Summer’ is one of the most globally-notorious phases of that 40-Year Cycle.  It impacted crops, harvests (or lack thereof) and famine around the globe… as has already been detailed.  (It also impacted war; just ask Napoleon.)

Another reason that 40-Year Cycle phase is so intriguing - and projects focus to 2016--2019 - is the recurrence of a 100-Year Cycle that has triggered similar events.  Perhaps one of the best known examples - prior to 1816--1819 - was the devastating ‘Great Famine’ of 1315--1317 (-1322).

The ‘Great Famine’ impacted most of Europe, ranging from Great Britain in the west to Russia in the north & Italy in the south.  Recurring crop failures stretched from early-1315 through the summer of 1317 and were responsible for millions of deaths.

That Food Crisis coincided with the stark shift from the Medieval Warm Period (culminating in mid-1200’s) to the Little Ice Age (early-1300’s until ~1850).  In the midst of this, the 1710’s marked the culmination of the lowest level of solar activity in (at least) the past 400 years… and one of the coldest.  That drop began 100 years earlier - in the 1610’s.

1310’s, 1610’s, 1710’s & 1810’s... To reiterate, it is the transition period - between various types of cycles - that is often the most volatile.  We could be moving through a similar transition period in the second half of the 2010’s - when 40-Year, 100-Year & 120-Year Cycles converge.

40-Year Cycle & Climate Change

That provides a nice segue back to a topic revisited last issue - that of climate shifts (closely linked to solar cycles - the ebb & flow of high & low sunspot activity).  Temperatures have vacillated - often from one extreme to the other - along with this 40-Year Cycle of Food Crises.

Most recently, that can be seen in the swing from the Dust Bowl (excessive heat) - peaking in the 1930’s - to the cooling temperatures reaching a crescendo in the 1970’s (when many ’experts’ warned of an impending new Ice Age).  In many cases, this cycle might not time the precise peak of the warmest temps - or nadir of coldest temps - but it does represent the extreme, synergistic impact of related phenomenon (including drought, frosts, etc.)…

If this climate vacillation continues, I would expect the late-2010’s to see the extreme of warming and the transition into a cooling phase of recurring ‘climate change’...”

INSIIDE Track, November 2015

11-28-15 - “Dust Bowl Redux?

There is always a complex challenge when analyzing cycles of this nature.  The first is to identify those cycles and their likely ramifications (in general terms).  The more complicated part is beginning to speculate on possible specifics.  Due to its broader approach, the former has a much better chance at success than the latter.

With that in mind, it is important to discuss a few possibilities that could fulfill the potential… into 2021… there is another evolving problem that is like so many others - manageable for years & years, perhaps decades & decades… until it reaches a tipping point.  This one is the foundation of all farming (except hydroponic):  DIRT.

More specifically, it is topsoil.  While most observers would doubt that anything like the Dust Bowl (most damaging in 1936--1941 - 80 years ago) could occur again, it is important to remember that history resembles itself (NOT repeats).

During the droughts & crop shortages of the 1850’s & 1890’s, it was observed that the erosion of topsoil in the Midwest/Upper Plains (US) was a developing problem.  It reached its ‘tipping point’ in the late-1930’s - re-affirming the 40-Year Cycle.  Let’s look at a broader progression of US agriculture:

-- ~80-Year Cycle from 1770’s to 1850’s - when crop raising evolved to the Midwest US.

-- ~80-Year Cycle from 1850’s to 1930’s - when heartland of US became breadbasket of US.

-- ~80-Year Cycle from 1930’s to 2010’s - when Dust Bowl prompted mass migration to California and resulted in California becoming the country’s - and sometimes the globe’s - leader in food production.  (For example, 94% of America’s broccoli, 84% of our peaches, 94% of plums and majority of lettuce, carrots & celery come from California.)

-- 40-Year Cycle from 1976/1977 to 2016/2017 - linking California’s worst drought to its worsening drought… ushering in a vulnerable 3--5 year period…

Would that resemble the 80-year sequence witnessed in the Plains - from the 1850’s to the 1930’s?!

Could the late-2010’s spur a new cycle in which US agriculture is forced to de-centralize? 

As thinkprogress.org puts it, California produces 2/3 of America’s produce (as well as 80% of the world’s almonds & 94% of canning tomatoes) but much of that - like lettuce, celery, carrots & tomatoes - could be grown in many other locations.  And, until the middle half of the US became a giant monoculture, hundreds of small farms used to do just that.

But, the US Farm Bill has created bigger problems by prohibiting most of the massive corn & soybean farmers from growing other crops… or forfeit their subsidies AND have add’l penalties added on.

After all, it is critical that massive amounts of corn are grown - fencerow to fencerow - so it can be converted into fuel & burned in vehicles while trumpeted ’to feed the world’. But, we haven’t (YET) reached the tipping point, so… ‘no worries, mate’.

As with Stock Index cycles, it usually takes multiple challenges (synergy) to finally trigger a crisis...

We already have years of California drought & disappearing aquifers, morphing super-pests & super-bugs in the heartland & the disappearance of diversity in our food-production system.  But, what could push it over the edge?”

INSIIDE Track, December 2015

“W.C.C. II - When Cycles Collide in Climate, Sunspots, Volcanoes & Commodities

11, 17, 22, 40, 100 & 200 -Year Cycles Colliding in late-2010’s

11-27-15: I receive many inquiries regarding my outlook for climate change (usually directing me to analysis predicting an imminent Ice Age or the burning up of the planet) as well as corresponding analysis on solar cycles, earthquake & volcano cycles and commodity (food crisis) cycles…

As I have stressed repeatedly over the past couple decades, I view myself - and try to convey my analysis accordingly - as an ‘Aware-ist’… NOT an ALARMIST(!!!).  So, while I am convinced that several cycles are entering a period of increasing intensity, I try not to convey apocalyptic intonations…

Many events - if you read about them in advance - would sound apocalyptic… and probably seem that way to those directly involved.  But, from a global perspective, they are just big challenges… not a collapse.

A prime example was when earth disturbance cycles projected Major earthquakes for Chile in 2010, Japan in 2011 & North America for 2012 (see Earth In Transition: 3+3 Reports at http://www.insiidetrack.com/pdf/INSIIDETrackSR200912ET3+3IIem.pdf).

At the time, the discussion frequently cited the potential for a nuclear ‘incident’, similar to - but worse than - what had recently been seen in Japan.  One quote - from 1/29/10 - explained these massive earthquake cycles and stated: “2010 could/should see some major activity but 2011 is expected to foreshadow whatever occurs in 2010.”

That was written as the world was reeling from the Jan. 2010 Haiti earthquake and in the context of expecting a worse earthquake in Chile soon after… and then in Japan between late-2010 and early-2012 (later narrowed down to early-2011).

The potential ramifications - if those cycles were accurate - were startling!

In many respects, that could sound apocalyptic… but on a regional basis (not to diminish the tragedy of them).  Chile was rocked by one of the five strongest earthquakes in recorded history - in Feb. 2010 - and Japan was devastated by a massive quake and nuclear incident in March 2011.

However, that didn’t drive civilization into caves and off the grid.  While it may seem like I am belaboring this point - which I am - it is for good reason… to place these expectations (in this case, for an impending food crisis) in the proper perspective.  For example...

Throughout the last few years, I detailed expectations for livestock to see a bubble-and-crash scenario - its own form of ‘food crisis’ - leading into and out of late-2014.

Diverse factors (including an ongoing drought in CA) culled the herds & drove Cattle & Hogs to unprecedented levels into late-2014, from which they have since crashed.  In the past 15--16 months, Hogs have lost over 60% of their peak value while retracing over 70% of a 15-year advance.

That is a SERIOUS crash!

But, it does not signal the end of pork production, as we know it.

In fact, other than the exorbitant price of steak in recent years, one might not have even recognized the extremes to which livestock prices had risen into 2014… or the extent to which they have fallen since then.  It has been a crisis, not a collapse.  Please forgive my belaboring this point, but I need to lay an accurate foundation if this analysis is to be understood and perceived in the appropriate context.

To get the ball rolling, let me give a brief overview of what I expect in the coming years.  This outlook touches on each of the topics cited in the title on page 4 and is a very general description of what I could see unfolding…

-- First, with respect to climate, I anticipate a similar scenario (of contrasts)… Simply put, I could see global temperatures - or at least some measure of them - extending their warming trend a bit more as we move toward 2019/2020.  There are multiple reasons for that (most will be elaborated later).

Among those are long-term cycles of warming & cooling - cycles that range from 22--25 years (partially linked to sunspot cycles) up to 100--200 years, as well as ~500 & ~1,000-year cycles of climate vacillation.

If there is one thing that is constant through all those cycles - it is change.

In fact, change is the only constant in the ongoing oscillation of global temperatures.  What else would have been expected - after a couple hundred years of warming surrounding 1000 AD and 400--500 years of dramatic cooling in the middle of the last millennium (Little Ice Age from ~1300--1850, with coldest period centered around 1600’s) - other than 100--200 years of warming, beginning around 1850?!  And that is exactly what has occurred.

In addition, on a smaller-based cycle, I would not be surprised to see another ‘post-El Nino’ warming spike begin in 2016 - a bit like what was seen in the late-1990’s and the early-1980’s (a 17-Year Cycle).  That could help spur a final ‘rally’ in global warming - into the late-2010’s - after 1--2 decades of stagnating temps since the late-1990’s.

That would also be in synch with the 40-Year Cycle & 80-Year Cycles of the past few centuries (including warm-ups in 1850’s - coming out of Little Ice Age - and in the 1890’s, 1930’s & 1970’s, following a 40-Year period of generally cooling temps from the peaks of the late-1930’s) - both of which portend either a culminating warm-up in the second half of the 2010’s and/or a multi-decade warming peak near 2019/2020.

Prior to the late-1850’s were the late-1810’s and the end of the Dalton Minimum (1820) - a low-point in global temps - and the late-1770’s, another cooling phase w/anecdotal evidence like New York Harbor freezing in 1780 - allowing people to walk from Manhattan to Staten Island.

The 1850’s was the transition point when a 40-Year Cycle Progression shifted from low-low-low to the subsequent high (late-1890’s)--high (late-1930’s)--high (late-1970’s)--high (late-2010’s)… a textbook, 40-Year low-low-low-high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression - targeted for ~2019/2020.  After that, however, I expect a phase of cooling (1-2 decades??) that could surprise the ‘warmers’.

2019 is also a convergence of sunspot & solar storm cycles (including 30 years from the 1989 storm and 160 years - 4 of the 40-Year Cycles - from the 1859 Carrington Event).  And, 2019 is the next phase of a 68-Year Cycle (4 - 17-Year Cycles, 3 - ~22.5 Year Solar Polar Cycles & 6 - ~11.2 Year Sunspot Cycles)…

From a market perspective, diverse indicators & cycles argue for commodities (& metals) to see an initial surge in 2016 with another surge into 2019--2021.  That ties into analysis for 2016 to be The Golden Year - the first phase of a bull market in Gold & Silver.  And, 2016/2017 should usher in Dollar troubles.”

INSIIDE Track, December 2015

07-28-16 - “With oppressive heat waves & ‘heat domes’ plaguing the U.S. and other nations (not to mention the rapidly recurring locust swarms around the globe), it is a good time to re-visit the topic of Food Crisis Cycles - another example of the 40-Year Cycle that is expected to trigger a renewed crisis in 2016/2017 through… potentially 2021.

While that actually applies to many crops, the focus of this discussion is on the grain markets (Soybeans, Corn & Wheat) and what has been - and still is - expected for 2016/2017… the early stages of a 3--5 year period when crop stresses are increasingly likely, based on cyclical AND fundamental factors…

As is almost always the case, however, it is NOT just one event or surprise that triggers this type of (anticipated) crisis - but rather the compound effect of multiple events…

40-Year Climate Cycle

One of the most noteworthy is the 40-Year Cycle of Climate Extremes that most recently timed the 1976/1977 California Drought & skyrocketing food prices into 1978--1980.

40 years prior, in 1936 (--1939/1940), it was America’s Dust Bowl & the N. American Heat Wave - as well as the Chinese Famine that killed ~5 million.

Exactly 40 years before that, the 1896--1898 Australian Heat Wave (& related Federation Drought… that dragged on into 1903) wreaked havoc.  Ironically, that heat wave came on the heels of the 1896 El Nino year - not unlike the 2015/2016 El Nino event.

Precisely 40 years prior, it was the onset of the 1856--1865 Civil War Drought that created a food crisis in America.  That was the first of 3 severe droughts - in the West & Plains - in a 40-year period (into the mid-1890’s).  At least where Texas was concerned, the 1850’s drought was the worst in the last ~300 years (worse than Dust Bowl).

And one uncanny 40-Year Cycle before that 1856 trigger, the 1816 Year Without a Summer impacted much of the world and triggered famine in 1816--1819.  So, you decide:  Is there some validity & consistency to the 40-Year Cycle of Food Crises?

Soybeans turned their monthly trend up on June 30, 2016, fulfilling the primary upside objective for 2016.  Coinciding with that, Soybeans attacked their yearly LHR (intra-year extreme upside price target) while completing a powerful 4-Shadow Signal… all signs of initial culmination.

All those indicators reinforced expectations for a much larger advance in the future… while also identifying the likely time for an initial peak now - the ‘1’ wave high of what is expected to be an overall ‘1-2-3-4-5’ wave advance…

Soybeans, Corn & Wheat declined in tandem, with Soybeans reversing their weekly trend down and removing the potential for a retest of their highs before a multi-month/multi-quarter peak took hold.  Soybeans had already attacked their extreme upside objective for all of 2016… so price targets had been met… after surging over 40% and producing the largest rally since 2012 - a 4-Shadow signal that portends a much larger advance after the next low…

From a cycle perspective, Soybeans were expected to surge into mid-2016 - at which point a 6--12 month peak was most likely… perpetuating a ~4-year low-low-high-high-high Cycle Progression - overlapping a ~360-degree high-high cycle that projected a 3--6 month (or greater) peak in May--July 2016.

The May--July period is when highs have been seen in each of the past 4 years… and is also when the multi-year highs of 2000, 2004, 2008 & 2012 were seen.  So, it was the ideal time for another multi-month/multi-quarter peak.

From a price perspective, the ideal upside target was/is the yearly LHR (intra-year extreme upside objective for 2016) at 1216.5/S.  Soybeans peaked at 1208.5/S in mid-June 2016…

From a multi-year basis, Wheat is showing that it could be poised for a multi-quarter (and potentially a multi-year) bottom in 3Q 2016… when it would complete a ~4.25 year high-high-(low) Cycle Progression.  A low in the second half of 2016 (ideally around Sept. 2016) would also be a complete 7-Year Cycle from its Sept. 2009 bottom - the lowest low of the past 8+ years.

Wheat is in the process of retesting that low as it completes a symmetrical ~8.25--8.5 year rally (late-1999--early-2008) followed by an ~8.25--8.5 year decline (early-2008--3Q/4Q 2016) - completing an overall ~17-Year Cycle from the 1999 Major bottom.

Ultimately, that could lead to a multi-year advance taking hold in 2017… a precise 40-Year Cycle from Wheat’s 3-year/150% surge of 1977--1980 (an inflationary period in most markets).

Meanwhile, Corn has been weaker than expected - breaking below its 6--12 month lows and nearing Major support at its Sept. 2014 low (and the lowest level since 2009) at ~318.0/C.  Between now and late-2016, Corn could drop as low as 290--300.0/C - its 2009 & 2010 lows, the lowest level since 2006 and its multi-year ‘4^th wave of lesser degree’ - the low from which its 5^th (V) wave advance (2008--2012) emerged.”

INSIIDE Track, August 2016

10-30-16 - “Action/Reaction

2013--2017, as emphasized dozens of times, was/is expected to time a generational shift - economically, monetarily & geopolitically…  Part of that discussion has focused on my expectations that the US Dollar would be going through a fundamental transition EVEN as it gained in value (see March 2013 discussion on Dollar Drawback, reprinted in Oct. 2016 INSIIDE Track).

That price rally - which could easily last into 2Q 2017 - was expected to disguise an under-current of steady Dollar ’attacks’ that would ultimately undercut the Dollar.  Although that analysis has been described in various ways, the simplest way of looking at it is through the lens of ’action/reaction’...

Action/Over-Reaction

According to Isaac Newton, for every action there is an equal & opposite reaction.  Note the key adjective there: ‘equal’.  That is the natural state of things.  Then there is the unnatural, a good description of what often occurs in the markets...

From an emotional perspective (which is what governs the markets), a little bit different principle often governs.  Let’s call it ’Hadik’s Principle of Action/Over-Reaction’.  (This principle often influences political discourse and conflict - on an individual basis as well as a national/international basis.)

“For many actions, there is an opposite & inflated (irrational) reaction… before cooler heads prevail and an equilibrium point is sought.”

That is what could unfold in the final years of this decade, a little like the final years of the 1970’s - one 40-Year Cycle ago.  It also has its parallels to what occurred during the final years of the 1930’s - another 40-Year Cycle ago - particularly in Europe.  And, it has its parallels to what occurred during the final years of the 1890’s - another 40-Year Cycle ago.

Of course, who can forget the final years of the 1850’s - another 40-Year Cycle before that…

That (1857--1861) is when the US government messed with Silver coinage (devaluing it by reducing the silver content of coins) - leading to the suspension of Silver, and then Gold, as currency.  That laid the foundation for the turmoil of the late-1850’s.

Internationally, the 1850’s saw a pivotal conflict between Russia & Crimea in 1853--1856 - in which Russia invaded Crimea.  In a déjà vu moment, Russia recently ’annexed’ Crimea in 2014.  Hmmmm.

At home, in America, regional/social/racial strife was escalating in 1855 as the nation became polarized (Bloody Kansas, etc.).  If I didn’t know any better, I would think there is a modern parallel unfolding in 2015-16.  Could the 40-Year Cycle (and its over-arching 80-Year Cycle) really be that accurate?!

2017 - The Transition Year

As described since 2013, I expected one phase of activity in 2013--2017 and another - the result (or the reaction/over-reaction) to that phase - in 2017--2021.  2017 is the pivotal transition year in that analysis.  It represents the culmination of one phase of cycles… and the onset of another.

As such, it is likely to be a very volatile year.  Consequently, this is an excellent time - and a very necessary one - to step back and view the forest as well as the trees... and review what is expected in the coming years.  The best place to start is with some of the longer-term cycles - the 17-Year Cycle & the 40-Year Cycle.  Let’s begin with the 17-Year Cycle...

Wheat initially fulfilled the outlook for a multi-quarter (and potentially a multi-year) bottom in 3Q 2016 - the completion of a ~4.25 year high-high-(low) Cycle Progression.  A low in the second half of 2016 would also be a complete 7-Year Cycle from its  2009 bottom - the lowest low of the past 8+ years.

Wheat initially fulfilled that while completing a symmetrical ~8.25--8.5 year rally (late-1999--early-2008) followed by an ~8.25--8.5 year decline (early-2008--3Q/4Q 2016) - fulfilling an overall ~17-Year Cycle from the 1999 Major bottom.  However, it has not yet confirmed a low.

That could ultimately lead to a multi-year advance taking hold in 2017… a precise 40-Year Cycle from Wheat’s 3-year/150% surge of 1977--1980  (an inflationary period in most markets).”

INSIIDE Track, November 2016

03-30-17 - “Deluge & Drainage

The Natural Year

The onset of the Natural Year (Vernal Equinox) has its roots in agrarian society and the emergence from Winter.  And just as every year has its  rotation of climate cycles - and every four seasonal cycles comprise each year - climate vacillates on a larger-degree cycle as well.  All are forms of ‘climate change’ on different time horizons.

I have previously illustrated the uncanny 40-Year Cycle that projects a crescendo of rising temperatures in the late-2010’s/early-2020’s (40 years from the peak in the late-1970’s/early-1980’s that was 40 years from the peak in the late-1930’s/early-1940’s).  But, that is just one factor...

As illustrated on page 2, the 2010’s are also the culmination of rising temperatures on a 100-Year Cycle.

The unique aspect of this Cycle Progression is that the 2010’s represent the inversion - during which the cycle that had previously governed sequential lows (nadir of cold temperatures) is now expected to time highs (peaks in warming).

Here is a quick look at the time frames included in that uncanny Cycle Progression:

1610’s - One of China’s coldest decades in recorded history.  It triggered massive famine and, not surprisingly, ushered in a ~40-Year Cycle of declining yields & harvests due to cold in 1610’s, 1630’s & 1650’s (China: An Environmental History by Robert B. Marks).

In additional regions, the 1610’s ushered in a 40-Year period of plummeting temperatures (over 2 degrees F in 40 years) that ultimately ushered in the coldest part of the Little Ice Age (~1645--1715).  The first River Thames frost fair took place in 1607 & was quickly followed by the freezing of the Golden Horn and part of Bosphorus in 1622.

1710’s - Culmination of coldest period of Little Ice Age and lowest period of solar activity (1645--1710) in at least the last 400 years.

1810’s - Multiple volcanic eruptions amplifying cooling temps, leading to eruption of Mt. Tambora & ensuing Year Without a Summer.  Agricultural ramifications were felt for years & decades to follow.

1910’s - Final dip & low in temperatures as Earth emerged from the Little Ice Age (~1300--1850 AD) and began to thaw.  Just as on a price chart, this ascending low - after three previous lows - projected an accelerated (warming) ~100-year period to follow, leading into a high during the next phase of that 100-Year Cycle Progression (in the late-2010’s).  So far, temps have cooperated!

There are even larger cycles that incorporate both the 40-Year Cycle & the 100-Year Cycle AND that powerfully corroborate this focus on the late-2010’s for a culmination of warming.  They are the 200-Year & 400-Year Cycles.

The 400-Year Cycle times the swings from the extreme lows of the early-800’s to the initial lows of the early-1200’s to the lows of the early-1600’s to the highs of the early-2000’s.  It is all very cyclical.

[The early 800’s & early-1200’s were also cold periods with the early-800’s timing the freezing of the Black Sea & Nile River (physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/7x.html).   The early-1200’s were not nearly as extreme, instead representing an initial low coming off the warm temperatures of the Medieval Warm Period.  They were a harbinger of what was to follow, in the ensuing 400 years.]

That 400-Year Cycle of Climate dates back to at least 1,200 BC, the onset of civilization-altering cooling & drought (that lasted hundreds of years by some accounts) and has timed the larger-degree climate shifts on a recurring, 400-year basis.  It is all very cyclical.

Connecting most of these cycles, including the 40-Year Cycle, is also an over-arching 80-Year Cycle of Climate & Food Crises that dates back at least 800 years & also includes times of severe famine (not yet discussed) in the 1530’s, 1690’s, 1770’s… leading to the late-1850’s (Civil War Drought that lasted almost a decade) & late-1930’s (Dust Bowl) and ultimately to the late-2010’s (possibly carrying over into early-2020s).”

INSIIDE Track, April 2017

02-27-19 - “INSIIDE Track: “Outlook 2019 - The ~11-Year Cycle

The Sun has at least three intriguing cycles that repeatedly emerge in the markets, in geopolitics, in military conflict, and in most aspects of life.  The biggest (of these three, although there are also longer-term cycles as well) is the ~40-Year Cycle of the Great Conveyor Belt of the Sun.

To summarize it, this is the plasma flow that circumvents the Sun, moving from its equator out toward one of the poles and then - after sinking lower - back toward its equator.  It takes approximately 40 years for that to transpire… and then it occurs toward the opposite pole and back.

So, a total circuit would take roughly 80 years (perfectly coinciding with the 80-Year Cycle of War that comes back into play in 2021, linked to the US entry into WWII in 1941, into the Civil War in 1861 and out of the Revolutionary War in 1781.  In the colonies, England and Europe, that has been documented for a few hundred years before 1781.).

If I understand the process correctly, the initial phase - flowing from equator to pole - goes along the surface of the Sun and ‘sweeps’ up decaying sunspots and their related magnetivity and then drops them off at the poles.

As a result, it greatly impacts the magnetic force of the Sun… which impacts subsequent sunspots and the magnetic barrages periodically flung at Earth (CMEs)… which could have an exponentially greater impact as Earth converts to a digital world.

As a result, it would stand to reason that the fluctuations of the Great Conveyor Belt of the Sun dramatically influence the other two primary cycles in this discussion.

To and Away

The second solar-related cycle is the 17-Year Cycle that impacts some form of magnetic interplay between the Sun and Earth (the ‘to and away’ interaction as described by David Juckett at https://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/A:1005075703810).  This has also been repeatedly discussed over the past two decades.  It has its strongest impact at the 34-year point (two full cycles), when it coincides with three of the following solar-related cycles...

Cause and Effect

Perhaps the best-known solar cycle is the one that governs the ebb and flow of sunspots or solar storms.  It is an ~11-Year Cycle (averages out to 11.2 years) that has an uncanny knack for also linking monetary and military events of cause and effect.  Perhaps a better way of describing that would be the Cycle of Unintended Consequence.

Events during one phase of this cycle often have a distinct and irrefutable link to events during the next phase.  In many cases, those phases also link similar players or similar events. (I have often documented an overlapping 11- Year Cycle that… recurs in 2021/2022.)

As time has unfolded, it has become clear that the Western financial and economic collapse of 2008/ 2009 drove countries like China & Russia into closer cooperation with one another, as an alternative to the US & Europe (see previous discussions on multiple unions spearheaded by China & Russia).  This cycle comes back into play in 2019 - 2020 and is likely to perpetuate/foster that alignment…”

INSIIDE Track, March 2019

“Outlook 2019/2020: The ~11-Year Cycle - Part II

09-30-19 - Late-Aug./early-Sept. ’19 ushered in a transition phase on so many levels, its significance should not be underestimated…

Grain markets sold off into early-Sept., setting secondary lows while completing ‘b’ or ‘2’ wave pullbacks.  That was/is expected to spur a new multi-month rally, with Soybeans projecting rallies that could easily reach new year-long highs.  (Soybeans & Corn generated intermediate buy signals in mid-to-late-Sept., validating this analysis and projecting new surges into Oct. ‘19; see Weekly Re-Lay.)…

There is another overriding cycle that could also be playing a role, even though it is considered more general and abstract.  It does, however, govern the explosive nature of the Sun which does have a measurable impact on Earth...

11-Year Cycle

The Sun goes through an approximate 11-Year Cycle (11.2 years is the most recent average) that envelopes its activity peaks to troughs and back to peaks again.  So, the lowest levels of solar activity (solar storms/sunspots and the resulting electromagnetic storms that are often hurled toward Earth) are divided by about 11 years and the most active phases are also divided by about 11 years.

In a strong parallel to Earth’s 17-Year Cycle - and its overlapping and more consistent 34-Year Cycle - the Sun possesses a 22-Year Cycle that is able to filter out some of the ‘white noise’ and demonstrate a stronger correlation between sunspot peaks or troughs and coinciding events.

It is that 22-Year Solar Polar Cycle that is a more precise or consistent cycle, partially due to how the Sun’s magnetic oscillations evolve.  During each ~11-Year Cycle, the Sun alternates the polarity of its sunspots - basically from northern-oriented to southern-oriented… and then back again.

So, it takes a full ~22-Year Cycle to return to a similar phase (with similar polarity) as its predecessor… Previously, I made reference to another moderate link that now deserves some added attention and reiteration…

The reason I refer to it as a ’moderate link’ is due to the small number of data points involved.  However, it has maintained a 100% correlation - with those data points - so it should not be ignored.  The data points all involve the time when the Sun is exiting its lowest point of solar activity - when few or no sunspots are detected for many months - and then begins to enter its next Solar Cycle with an intensification of these solar storms.

Like so many cycle transitions, this shift is often when the most abrupt reactions are witnessed in our world…

Late-2019 times momentous cycles… 11 years from the start of a previous price-inflationary period from late-2008/early-2009 into 2011/2012…. it is the time when the Sun could finally come back to life!  Could we see some fireworks (begin) in 4Q ’19?”

INSIIDE Track, October 2019

“Outlook 2019/2020: The 80-Year Cycle

10-30-19 - The 40-Year Cycle has powerfully reinforced its ubiquity and accuracy, right up to the present day.  While many of the events about to be discussed might be debated as to their individual impact or significance, they combine with so many corroborating events to create a synergy that cannot be refuted.

So how do the intensifying wildfires in California, the US pullout from Northern Syria (catapulting Turkey into the most decisive period in their recent history), the unresolved trade war with China, and the continued ascent in Gold - not to mention dozens of other seemingly unrelated occurrences - reinforce this uncanny 40-Year Cycle?

If they are somehow linked, what does that signify?

America’s Trio of 80YCs

In articles over the past decade, I have detailed the 40-Year Cycle that has governed America’s entire existence - incorporating everything from currency to conflict to agricultural development and shifts.  Global gold and currency action - dating back to (at least) the 1200’s has adhered to that cycle.  That cycle projected a momentous shift for 2017 - 2021.

A higher-magnitude 80-Year Cycle has timed the bigger, over-arching evolutions - most notably America’s involvement in major wars (1781 - 1861 - 1941 - 2021?).  That 80-Year Cycle of War has also governed European conflict - prior to and overlapping America’s existence as a nation - dating back hundreds of years prior to 1781.

As discussed in 2013 - 2015, that 80-Year Cycle has also timed larger migration shifts in America - tied to agriculture (and gold).  The excerpt on page 2 recounts a little bit of that analysis - detailing why I believe the 2020’s could usher in a developing shift away from California.  And that could impact a lot!

That doesn’t have to be a mass exodus, but simply a steady intensification of what is already emerging - based on many factors.  Numerous articles have already documented the start of this transition - an early fulfillment of the analysis detailed in 2013 - 2015 and another form of ‘canary in the coal mine’.

https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-population-growth-20190501-story.html

https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/265

https://www.latimes.com/projects/la-pol-ca-next-california-demographics/

They attribute a potential population shift to various factors - including an aging population (80-Year Cycle?).  With diverse living costs already sky-high, a demographic shift will increase the financial burden to fewer citizens - likely accelerating the exodus due to lack of affordability.

Increasing natural disasters - and the costs they create (directly and indirectly in rising costs like insurance) could exacerbate this.

[NOTE: I have no ‘axe to grind’ with California.  On the contrary, I love what the state has to offer and spend a couple weeks there every year.  I lived there in the ‘90’s, have more than half of my family based there, love the coast - from Santa Monica up to Mendocino - and have backpacked in Yosemite for a week at a time, 5 times over the past decade.  This is simply cyclic observations and analysis.]

From an agricultural perspective, there are factors that could push crop production costs up and validate the analysis described in 2015 (crackdown on illegal immigration, intensifying climate swings, etc.).  That could impact all of us (’as goes California’...).

This is just one subtle validation of the dramatic shift expected to take hold as America’s third 80-Year Cycle culminates.  There are other ’seeds of change’ that confirm related 80-Year Cycles and portend dramatic changes in the ’20’s.  Stay tuned...

2015 analysis examined an uncanny 40-Year Cycle and overriding 80-Year Cycle - both of which argued for dramatic shifts for California, beginning in 2016/2017 - 2021 (and potentially lasting for decades). As detailed then, these cycles timed the westward movement of America’s agriculture (and culture) in 80-year intervals.

However, a Perfect Storm of challenges was developing and could see the unwinding of that western movement in the years and decades that follow (2016 - 2021 and late-2010’s into 2020’s & 2030’s).

The first challenge was drought - similar to what drove many farmers west in the 1940’s after the Dust Bowl of the late-’30’s. A 40-Year Cycle of drought - beginning in 1976/1977 & accelerating into 2016/2017 laid the foundation - projected to trigger an extremely vulnerable 3 - 5 year period (into 2021).

Exacerbating that were wildfires, intensifying during the years leading into late-2015 and likely to continue. Finally, there was the potential for erosion of topsoil in the years that follow a decade of drought and wildfires.  2016 gave a small taste of that potential with El Nino-related flooding.

Since then, dozens of catastrophic wildfires have plagued the state - all leading to a subtle (negative) shift in migration patterns in 2017/2018.  Could that shift accelerate in the 2020’s?

Soybeans, Corn & Wheat remain in the early stages of a bull market…  Most recently, they rallied into mid-Oct. when Soybeans fulfilled multiple cycles and wave-timing targets - ushering in an intermediate (multi-week) correction.

That peak had Soybeans spiking to new multi-month highs, fulfilling their weekly trend patterns as they completed a symmetrical move from their Dec. ’18 top - first declining for ~21 weeks and then rallying for ~21 weeks.  All of this argues for a 1 - 2 month period of consolidation in Soybeans…”

INSIIDE Track, November 2019

“Outlook 2020/2021 - 80-Year Cycle of Agriculture

09-29-20 - America continues to evolve on a 40-Year Cycle basis.  By that, I mean that many social and economic swings have adhered closely to that 40-Year Cycle - the topic of dozens of discussions over the past decade.  The primary focus of that analysis has been the period of 2015 - 2021 - when seismic shifts were forecast to occur. When analyzing that, it is always important to remember that history rhymes… it does not repeat.

One current example involves expectations for price inflation in 2020 - possessing some similarities AND some very important distinctions from what took place in 1980… and 1940… and 1900.  In the current case, the 2010’s have seen an exponential rise in paper assets - most notably stocks (and bonds) - akin to the rise in commodity prices & hard assets in the 1970’s…

Adding another ‘rhyming’ factor, metals and commodities were forecast to see an inflationary price surge from March 16 - 20, ‘20 into 2Q ‘21 (at the same time Dollar cycles were/are bearish).  It is the subsequent period between mid-2021 and late-2022 when things could get a bit more ‘dicey’.

40-Year Cycle of Migration...

And then there are much larger, overriding cycles that might not always have a direct or immediate impact on specific markets… but ultimately do have a significant impact on the broader picture.  Since this usually involves a slower process (like reversing the direction of an aircraft carrier instead of a speedboat), it is often overlooked until it is too late.

In 2015, INSIIDE Track began to elaborate on the outlook for the late-2010’s (and early-2020’s) and the potential for dramatic changes.  One of the conclusions drawn then (2015) was that challenges in California were about to ratchet up to a new level.

A 40-Year Cycle of drought was transitioning and 2016/17 was threatening to usher in a vulnerable 3 - 5 year period during which a food crisis was expected to unfold (in diverse areas) as California was (expected to be) hit with escalating challenges.

One speculation, described at the time, was that El Nino flooding could hit CA in early-2016 and exacerbate the troubles already brought by years of escalating wildfires.  California and its wildfires were ‘rhyming’ with the Dust Bowl events in the Midwest 80 years earlier - in the 1930’s.  Along with that, the potential for topsoil erosion in CA was growing.

During the ‘30’s, the evolving dust storms (and massive topsoil erosion) decimated the prairies in the middle of the US and Canada - reaching a crescendo in 1939/1940 and ultimately driving farmers, ranchers and their crop-raising… to California.   Something remotely similar could soon repeat… and might already be subtly evolving.

As described in the late-2015 analysis (reprinted on page 2), US agriculture has evolved on an ~80-Year Cycle with the period of 2016 - 2021 representing the culmination of the latest cycle (and related 40-Year Cycle) - during which a developing food crisis was expected to unfold… in or out of California.

2019 - 2021 was the crescendo of that period and the expected time for when the consequences were most likely to manifest themselves to the masses.

The speculation then, and repeated in the intervening years, was that the mass migration West (since the Dust Bowl decade of the 1930’s) - to California - would begin to reverse itself after that time and potentially trigger a decentralizing of agriculture that had become so pronounced in CA.

(Obviously, that is likely to be a slower process since it is in the context of an 80-Year Cycle.)

Sure enough, 2016 brought El Nino flooding that was a likely precursor to the future.  In some areas, it demonstrated what happens when normal topsoil protectants are burned away and then flooded.

Also included in that 2015 analysis was conjecture that there would then be another warming spike after El Nino - lasting into 2019/2020 and exacerbating the drought conditions in CA (and in other areas).

Sure enough, global temperatures peaked in early-2016, spiking slightly above the 1998 peak, and then fell back for ~two years.  They then entered the latest surge and are likely to set another multi-year peak in 2020/2021.

(Global temperature spike highs have occurred at a similar ~11-Year Cycle as other solar phenomenon - peaking in 1988, 1998/99, 2009/10 and potentially in 2020/21.  This is NOT a political climate debate but rather an observation of shorter-term cycles.)

Is it possible that the events of 2014 - 2020 could spur a new migration away from California, similar to how the events of 1934 - 1940 spurred a migration to CA?  If so, what does that mean for the 2020’s?

And just to be clear, I spend time in CA every year or two and love what the state has to offer.  So this is not any sort of bias or political statement.  It is simply an observation of some very intriguing cycles that should not be overlooked.  Stay tuned…

Soybeans, Corn & Wheat fulfilled analysis for strong advances in June - Sept., with the second phase expected to be a surge from early-Aug. into mid-to-late-Sept. (after an initial surge into early-July).  Soybeans accomplished that...  Price action projected a rally above 980.0/S and ideally back to ~1060/S in Sept. ‘20.

They made it up to 1046.75/SX while surging into Sept. 18 - fulfilling these targets (in price and time) while also triggering traders to exit 1/2 of long positions (from ~850.0/SX) at 1045.0/SX.

Wheat has a combination of cycles that forecast an intermediate peak on Sept. 21 - Oct. 2.  That remains the case, but an opposing cycle low (~Sept 28) could provide a floor under any future corrections… as part of a much larger bull market.

1 - 3 month and 3 - 6 month traders could be holding partial long positions in Nov. Soybeans futures from 854 down to 846 - holding 1/2 of these. w/avg. open gains of about $8,500/contract.  The other 1/2 should have been exited at 1045.0/SX w/avg. gains of about $9,700/contract.”  FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

INSIIDE Track, October 2020

10-29-22 - “Climate Cycles

In the mid-2010’s, INSIIDE Track described a convergence of longer-term climate cycles portending a culminating global warming in the late-2010’s and early-2020’s - leading into a multi-year peak.  [NOTE: I am NOT a climatologist or meteorologist.  This conjecture is simply based on cycle analysis.]

After a couple decades of fairly level global temperatures, the late-2010’s/early-2020’s fulfilled that outlook.  That is also when a Food Crisis was forecast to take hold - driving the price of grains and other commodities substantially higher.

2023/24 is when cycles project a bit of a shift after reaching new extremes.  One of those shifts could be seen in the West (as goes CA, so goes the US??)...

Based on analysis of a consistent 6-Year Cycle, a Sunspot-related 11 - 12-Year Cycle and a ~40-Year Cycle, I expect California and other parts of the West to see an abrupt turnaround in precipitation during the 2022-23 & 2023-24 rainy seasons (’water years’).

In recent decades, heavy rain years arrived in 2017 (highest total since records began), 2011, 2005, 1998, & 1993. 6, 12, 18, 24 & 30 years from those spikes pinpoint 2022/23 as a prime candidate for increased precipitation - based on a 6-Year Cycle.

Looking back over the past ~80 years, the water years of 1941, 1952, 1963, 1974, 1986, 1998 & 2011 produced surges in precipitation - averaging about 35% above the annual average amount.

2022/23 & 2023/24 are the next phase in this ~11/12-Year Cycle.

That is also when a 40-Year Cycle comes back into play - linked to increased rainfall in the early1900’s, early-1940’s & early-1980’s, following extreme dry years in each of the preceding decades.

Following the 1976 year of extreme drought, 1982 - 83 saw consecutive water years of extreme precipitation - combining to create the greatest 2-year period of rain since records began in the late1890’s.

Could 2022/23 or 2023/24 repeat this pattern and perpetuate that 40-Year Cycle?

Related El Nino cycles focus on 2023/24 for another chance for increased precipitation… based on cycle analysis.  That is another factor in this analysis.

Since 2023 is the year with the greatest synergy of cycles related to major solar storms, the next 12 - 18 months could see some abrupt shifts in climate-related events…“

INSIIDE Track, November 2022

 “Outlook 2023 - The Year of Disruptions?

01-04-23 -  2022 fulfilled a myriad of cycle projections - including a major top and sell-off in the stock market, a crypto meltdown, skyrocketing inflation & interest rates, a culminating surge in the US Dollar (potentially stretching into 2023), the onset of an 80-Year Cycle of War, and the shift to a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency Wars.  Overlapping & reinforcing these expectations has been the latest upturn in the approximate 11.2-Year Solar/Sunspot Cycle.

Though it is rarely given sufficient credit, the Solar Cycle is one of the most impactful cycles on our world.  Along with related cycles, that Solar Cycle was/is forecast to trigger at least three major natural events in 2023/2024…

-- Major Solar Storm in 2023

-- Strong uptick in volcanic eruptions in 2022 - 2024.

-- Surprising shift in drought/flood cycles for the Western US (particularly CA) in late-2022 - late-2024.

Climate Cycles

In 2022, INSIIDE Track reiterated why - in stark contrast to the calls for escalating drought in CA and the West US - cycles were arguing for not just one but two consecutive years of greatly-increased precipitation in 2022/23 & 2023/24.

That was coming on the heels of the culmination of the latest 40-Year Cycle of Climate & Food Crises - in 2021/2022 - when a MAJOR climatological shift was on track to take hold.  That had been discussed throughout the 2010’s and was forecast to reach a crescendo as food prices escalated and global temps experienced a final warming into 2021/2022… before a dramatic shift takes hold in 2022/23 and beyond.

That would repeat a pattern seen in 1976 - 1981/82 when the previous drought cycle was culminating and in 1936 - 1941 when the Dust Bowl was signaling the culmination of the previous Drought Cycle.

Prior to that, 1895 - 1901/02 timed the Federation Drought in Australia - the transition of previous Drought Cycles.  And prior to that, the biggest impact of the Civil War Drought took place in 1855 - 1862.

In each case, a final multi-year drought (and usually warming) period began in the ‘5’ or ‘6’ year of the preceding decade (1855, 1895, 1935/36, 1976 & 2016) and stretched into the ‘’2’ year of the ensuing decade - when abundant precipitation usually timed the shift of that 40-Year Cycle (1862, 1902, 1942, 1982/83 & 2022/23??) and the end of the Drought Cycle.

That dovetailed with previous discussions on longer-term cycles of drought that had forecast West Coast rains/floods in 2017 followed by a final global warm-up and drought into 2021/2022… before a deluge was forecast to occur in 2022/23 & 2023/24…  The most recent discussion of this explained the following:

10-29-22 - “Based on analysis of a consistent 6-Year Cycle, a Sunspot-related 11 - 12-Year Cycle and a ~40-Year Cycle, I expect California and other parts of the West to see an abrupt turnaround in precipitation during the 2022-23 & 2023-24 rainy seasons (’water years’). 

In recent decades, heavy rain years arrived in 2017 (highest total since records began), 2011, 2005, 1998, & 1993.  6, 12, 18, 24 & 30 years from those spikes pinpoint 2022/23 as a prime candidate for increased precipitation - based on a 6-Year Cycle. 

Looking back over the past ~80 years, the water years of 1941, 1952, 1963, 1974, 1986, 1998 & 2011 produced surges in precipitation - averaging about 35% above the annual average amount. 

2022/23 & 2023/24 are the next phase in this ~11/12-Year Cycle.

That is also when a 40-Year Cycle comes back into play - linked to increased rainfall in the early-1900’s, early-1940’s & early-1980’s, following extreme dry years in each of the preceding decades.

Following the 1976 year of extreme drought, 1982 - 83 saw consecutive water years of extreme precipitation - combining to create the greatest 2-year period of rain since records began in the late-1890’s… 2022/23 or 2023/24 repeat this pattern and perpetuate that 40-Year Cycle… the next 12 - 18 months could see some abrupt shifts in climate-related events...”  [End of excerpt from Nov ’22 INSIIDE Track]

This was being written at the same time mainstream weather & climatologists were warning about a ‘drier than normal’ winter for CA in 2022/23 and the near certainty of escalating drought conditions:

https://www.abc10.com/article/weather/california-drought/california-drought-water-year-winter-outlook/103-c340afd6-d180-4cb2-aeae-07b931f92875 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/ 2022/10/25/california-drought-forecast-record-dry/  

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2  

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/noaa-releases-california-winter-weather-predictions/ 

Anyone wanna guess what has transpired so far?

A majority of regions across the state - from NoCal to SoCal - are at 150 - 200% of normal with a sequence of ‘atmospheric rivers’ heading across the Pacific with reckless abandon… and a ’bomb cyclone’ soon arriving.  Reservoirs are acting similarly as snowpack is also beginning to build… providing a powerful jumpstart to what cycles have been saying is highly likely in late-2022 - mid-2024.

This climate shift does NOT just impact CA or the West Coast and has been responsible for  major storms tracking across the US this winter.  More are likely to follow.  And this is likely a symptom of a more dramatic climate shift… at least for the coming years.  That is why it has been discussed.

One of the important points is that coincidence does not mean causality.  Each of these expected and/or maturing events… are all symptoms of a much larger, over-arching shift.”

INSIIDE Track, January 2023

02-27-19 - “INSIIDE Track: “Outlook 2019 - The ~11-Year Cycle

The Sun has at least three intriguing cycles that repeatedly emerge in the markets, in geopolitics, in military conflict, and in most aspects of life.  The biggest (of these three, although there are also longer-term cycles as well) is the ~40-Year Cycle of the Great Conveyor Belt of the Sun.

To summarize it, this is the plasma flow that circumvents the Sun, moving from its equator out toward one of the poles and then - after sinking lower - back toward its equator.  It takes approximately 40 years for that to transpire… and then it occurs toward the opposite pole and back.

So, a total circuit would take roughly 80 years (perfectly coinciding with the 80-Year Cycle of War that comes back into play in 2021, linked to the US entry into WWII in 1941, into the Civil War in 1861 and out of the Revolutionary War in 1781.  In the colonies, England and Europe, that has been documented for a few hundred years before 1781.).

If I understand the process correctly, the initial phase - flowing from equator to pole - goes along the surface of the Sun and ‘sweeps’ up decaying sunspots and their related magnetivity and then drops them off at the poles.  As a result, it greatly impacts the magnetic force of the Sun… which impacts subsequent sunspots and the magnetic barrages periodically flung at Earth (CMEs)… which could have an exponentially greater impact as Earth converts to a digital world.

As a result, it would stand to reason that the fluctuations of the Great Conveyor Belt of the Sun dramatically influence the other two primary cycles in this discussion.

To and Away

The second solar-related cycle is the 17-Year Cycle that impacts some form of magnetic interplay between the Sun and Earth (the ‘to and away’ interaction as described by David Juckett at https://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/A:1005075703810).  This has also been repeatedly discussed over the past two decades.  It has its strongest impact at the 34-year point (two full cycles), when it coincides with three of the following solar-related cycles...

Cause and Effect

Perhaps the best-known solar cycle is the one that governs the ebb and flow of sunspots or solar storms.  It is an ~11-Year Cycle (averages out to 11.2 years) that has an uncanny knack for also linking monetary and military events of cause and effect.  Perhaps a better way of describing that would be the Cycle of Unintended Consequence.

Events during one phase of this cycle often have a distinct and irrefutable link to events during the next phase.  In many cases, those phases also link similar players or similar events. (I have often documented an overlapping 11- Year Cycle that… recurs in 2021/2022.)

As time has unfolded, it has become clear that the Western financial and economic collapse of 2008/ 2009 drove countries like China & Russia into closer cooperation with one another, as an alternative to the US & Europe (see previous discussions on multiple unions spearheaded by China & Russia).  This cycle comes back into play in 2019 - 2020 and is likely to perpetuate/foster that alignment…”

INSIIDE Track, March 2019

01-31-19 - “Natural Gas has remained under pressure since fulfilling its upside target for 4Q ’18 (~5.000/NG).  On a 1 - 3 month basis, Nat Gas remains likely to set a multi-month bottom in 1Q 2019 - perpetuating a ~360-degree cycle from recent years.  More precisely, a 51-week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression projects that low for Feb. 4 - 11, 2019 (although anytime in Feb. 2019 would fulfill the corresponding ~12-month low-low-low-low Cycle Progression).

On a larger-degree basis, Natural Gas could wait until 4Q 2019/1Q 2020 - the next phase of a consistent ~3.75-Year Cycle and corroborating monthly cycles - to set a major bottom.”

03-29-19 - “Natural Gas spiked to new 12-month (contract) highs but could not trigger an intra-year uptrend, signaling an intermediate top and projecting selling into early-April.  Consistent with what has been previously discussed, Natural Gas could wait until 4Q 2019/1Q 2020 - the next phase of a consistent ~3.75-Year Cycle and corroborating cycles - to set a major bottom.”

04-30-19 - “Natural Gas remains weak and could wait until 4Q 2019/1Q 2020 - the next phase of a consistent ~3.75-Year Cycle and corroborating cycles - to set a major bottom.   It turned its intra-year trend down in April and dropped sharply, reinforcing this overall outlook.  It would show no signs of an intermediate bottom until a weekly close above 2.6700/NGM.”

05-30-19 - “Natural Gas remains weak and could wait until 4Q 2019/1Q 2020 to set a major bottom.   It turned its intra-year trend down in April and dropped sharply, reinforcing this overall outlook… and should ultimately spur a drop to new contract lows and eventually down toward ~2.000/NG.”

06-30-19 - “Natural Gas remains weak and could wait until 4Q 2019/1Q 2020 to set a major bottom.   It turned its intra-year trend down in April and dropped sharply, reinforcing this overall outlook.  That should ultimately spur a drop to new contract lows and eventually down toward ~2.000/NG.”

07-31-19 - “Natural Gas remains weak and is expected to wait until 4Q 2019/1Q 2020 to set a major bottom… It has declined since turning its intra-year trend down in April and is expected to eventually reach ~2.000/NG… Expect more volatility (and shorter sell-offs) as Natural Gas nears the time for a major low.”

08-30-19 - “Natural Gas remains weak and is expected to wait until 4Q 2019/1Q 2020 to set a major bottom… It has nearly reached its primary downside target (~2.000/NG) so consolidation is likely near this support.”

“Outlook 2019/2020: The ~11-Year Cycle - Part II

09-30-19 - There is another overriding cycle that could also be playing a role, even though it is considered more general and abstract.  It does, however, govern the explosive nature of the Sun which does have a measurable impact on Earth...

11-Year Cycle

The Sun goes through an approximate 11-Year Cycle (11.2 years is the most recent average) that envelopes its activity peaks to troughs and back to peaks again.  So, the lowest levels of solar activity (solar storms/sunspots and the resulting electromagnetic storms that are often hurled toward Earth) are divided by about 11 years and the most active phases are also divided by about 11 years.

In a strong parallel to Earth’s 17-Year Cycle - and its overlapping and more consistent 34-Year Cycle - the Sun possesses a 22-Year Cycle that is able to filter out some of the ‘white noise’ and demonstrate a stronger correlation between sunspot peaks or troughs and coinciding events.

It is that 22-Year Solar Polar Cycle that is a more precise or consistent cycle, partially due to how the Sun’s magnetic oscillations evolve.  During each ~11-Year Cycle, the Sun alternates the polarity of its sunspots - basically from northern-oriented to southern-oriented… and then back again.

So, it takes a full ~22-Year Cycle to return to a similar phase (with similar polarity) as its predecessor… Previously, I made reference to another moderate link that now deserves some added attention and reiteration…

The reason I refer to it as a ’moderate link’ is due to the small number of data points involved.  However, it has maintained a 100% correlation - with those data points - so it should not be ignored.  The data points all involve the time when the Sun is exiting its lowest point of solar activity - when few or no sunspots are detected for many months - and then begins to enter its next Solar Cycle with an intensification of these solar storms.

Like so many cycle transitions, this shift is often when the most abrupt reactions are witnessed in our world…

Late-2019 times momentous cycles… 11 years from the start of a previous price-inflationary period from late-2008/early-2009 into 2011/2012…. it is the time when the Sun could finally come back to life!  Could we see some fireworks (begin) in 4Q ’19?”…

Natural Gas remains weak and is expected to wait until 4Q 2019/1Q 2020 to set a major bottom - ideally near ~2.000/NG.  It corroborated that outlook by entering some intervening consolidation and rebounding into mid-Sept. without turning its weekly trend up.  That was projected to set a peak on Sept. 10 - 20, based on the weekly LHR, weekly trend and a ~6-month/~180-degree cycle from its March 19, ‘19 peak.  Natural Gas peaked on Sept. 16 and has since sold off.”

INSIIDE Track, October 2019

“Outlook 2019/2020: The 80-Year Cycle

10-30-19 - America’s Trio of 80YCs

In articles over the past decade, I have detailed the 40-Year Cycle that has governed America’s entire existence - incorporating everything from currency to conflict to agricultural development and shifts.  Global gold and currency action - dating back to (at least) the 1200’s has adhered to that cycle.

That cycle projected a momentous shift for 2017 - 2021.

A higher-magnitude 80-Year Cycle has timed the bigger, over-arching evolutions - most notably America’s involvement in major wars (1781 - 1861 - 1941 - 2021?).  That 80-Year Cycle of War has also governed European conflict - prior to and overlapping America’s existence as a nation - dating back hundreds of years prior to 1781…

This is just one subtle validation of the dramatic shift expected to take hold as America’s third 80-Year Cycle culminates.  There are other ’seeds of change’ that confirm related 80-Year Cycles and portend dramatic changes in the ’20’s… Could that shift accelerate in the 2020’s? ”

INSIIDE Track, November 2019

“Outlook 2020/2021 - 2020 Vision

11-30-19 -  As the markets enter the final month of 2019, it is a good time to step back and view the forest for the trees.  The ‘forest’ can be viewed on multiple levels - with the primary emphases on the recurrence and convergence of the 40-Year, 70-Year & 80-Year Cycles in 2019 - 2022.

That applies to the markets, to the Middle East, Europe and overall global geopolitics (including cycles of unification), to cycles of war, to ongoing currency battles and even to earth disturbances...

And then there is the role of Europe...

The 70-Year Cycle & NATO

On Nov. 7, an article in the Economist highlighted French President Macron’s Oct. 21 interview declaring that ‘NATO is brain dead’ (see page 4)...

…to which NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg assured Europe that NATO is not dead yet (https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/11/07/nato-stoltenberg-shoots-back-france-emmanuel-macron-calls-brain-death-dead/).

…after which Austrian’s President Van der Bellen proclaimed his agreement with Macron on NATO ‘brain death’ (https://tass.com/world/1088302).

There seems to be some Euro-discrepancy. 

So, a follow-up article in the Wall Street Journal attempted to clarify this (https://www.wsj.com/articles/nato-isnt-dead-but-its-ailing-11573516002).  It described NATO as ‘ailing’ but not (yet) brain dead - particularly noting NATOs impotence against Russia and now Turkey (a member nation).

Well, that’s reassuring!?!  NATO is not dead… YET. 

That should put everyone’s mind at ease.  NATO is fatally ill and encroaching on brain death… but don’t worry, its not dead yet…

The 40-Year Cycle & Turkey

In the early-2010’s, INSIIDE Track described primary forecasts for Europe/US relations in 2013 - 2021 (with greatest synergy in and focus on 2018 - 2021).

The first supposition was that America would steadily be isolated - both politically and economically - as a collection of competitive or adversarial nations worked to supplant the US Dollar as the global kingpin of foreign exchange and trade AND sought to unseat America’s increasing power in the absence of a single ‘equal’ competitor.

That sounded a bit more outlandish, back in 2010.

The second was that Europe and the Euro would struggle through much of that period ultimately leading to a dire perception of Europe’s future.  That would then - as described back in 2013 - 2015 - lead to a revised European Union, developing in 2018 - 2021 and likely reaching fruition in 2021 (at the same time War Cycles would peak… is there a connection?)…

The 11 & 22-Year Cycles Join In

More than anything, the events of 2017 - 2019 have revealed and/or created a dangerous, smoldering tinderbox of global tensions and anxieties - awaiting a decisive dousing of geopolitical gasoline and a well-timed spark.  For over a decade, the focus for the next serious global conflict has been on 2021 - the next phase of the 80-Year Cycle of War…

It is worth noting that the heightened potential for a global, military flare-up is perfectly timed with when the Sun is expected to enter its own period of intensifying flare-ups.  Evidence is mounting that Solar Cycle 25 has begun (see inset).  In many historical cases, the first 2 - 3 years see a dramatic surge in the annual number of solar storms.

And, in many cases, the repeated bombardment of Earth - with intensifying CMEs and magnetic particles - has coincided with increasing human aggression.  The 80-Year Cycle appears to have impacted this as well.  1858/1859 ushered in an explosive period and the most dramatic solar storm of modern history - the ’Carrington Event’ of 1859.

1938/1939 ushered in another explosive solar period with several global-impacting storms lasting into 1943 (a worldwide radio blackout also occurred in 1947).

Will 2019 usher in another multi-year period of explosive solar activity? “

“As explained for years leading up to that time frame, the 70-Year Cycle is what I term the ‘Cycle of Kings’ or ‘Cycle of Governments’.  It is often the duration of a leadership or governance of some form.  It is how long one entity ’reigns’ before a shift unfolds...

NATO’s standing in 2019 - 2022, a complete 70-Year Cycle from its inception and early development in 1949 - 1952, could see some similar shifts.  These ‘transitions of power’ are rarely quiet, rarely immediate, and rarely without incident - so the sharpest shift (which is still expected to take hold right around 2020/2021) is still to come.”

Natural Gas spiked to new highs in early-Nov. without turning its weekly trend up.  That signaled the timing for a new wave down, projecting a drop to new lows and into Dec. 2019.  Natural Gas now enters the time that has been in focus all year - when a 1 - 2 year bottom is most likely… broader cycles focus on 4Q ’19/1Q ’20…”

INSIIDE Track, December 2019

01-04-20 - “Natural Gas is fulfilling ongoing analysis for a 1 - 2 year bottom to take hold in 4Q ’19/1Q ’20, ideally in Dec. ’19/Jan. ’20.  1 - 2 year traders and hedgers can begin buying at these levels and average into long positions if lower levels are seen in the short term.”

01-31-20 - “Natural Gas is fulfilling ongoing analysis that has been discussed since late-’18/early-’19.  That outlook called for Natural Gas to ultimately decline into 4Q ’19/1Q ’20… 1 - 2 year traders and hedgers can be phasing into long positions, and/or covering long-term short positions, at these levels.”

02-28-20 - “Natural Gas is fulfilling ongoing analysis for a drop from 4Q ‘18 into 4Q ’19/1Q ’20.  1Q ’20 is the latest phase of a 4-year low-low-low cycle with multi-year support near 1.6000 - the March ’16 bottom.   1 - 2 year traders and hedgers can be phasing into long positions, and/or covering long-term short positions, down to this major support.”

03-31-20 - “For the past year, much of INSIIDE Track’s focus has been on the extremely challenging time that was expected to begin in late-2019.  That outlook was based on a myriad of factors, including:

-- Geopolitical (projected to intensify in Nov. ‘19 - late-’20 and impact all kinds of markets)…

-- Solar-related (Solar Cycle 24 was heading into its low point with Solar Cycle 25 expected to bottom in late-2019 - a transition that historically times dramatic global challenges, most recently in 2008/09)...

-- Interest rate-related (rates projected to drop from late-’19 into June/July ‘20, based on to-be-determined negative economic forces)…

-- Energy-related (Crude projected to drop to new multi-year lows based on its monthly trend pattern while Natural Gas was projected to decline into 1Q ‘20 before a multi-year bottom was/is likely)…

Natural Gas has fulfilled ongoing analysis for a drop from 4Q ‘18 into 1Q ’20.  1Q ’20 is the latest phase of a 4-year low-low-low cycle with multi-year support near 1.6000 - the March ’16 bottom… 1 - 2 year traders and hedgers can be phasing into long positions, and/or covering long-term short positions, down to this major support.”

INSIIDE Track, April 2020

04-30-20 - “Natural Gas has fulfilled ongoing analysis for a drop from 4Q ‘18 into  1Q ’20.  1Q ’20 is the latest phase of a 4-year low-low-low cycle with multi-year support near 1.6000 - the March ’16 bottom.  Natural Gas rallied into mid-April and right to its intermediate upside target at 2.100/NGM.  That triggered a pullback, expected to bottom in the coming week.

An overall rally… ultimately into Nov./Dec. ’20 is expected.  It would take a weekly close above 2.400/NGQ to signal the next phase of this developing advance.  1 - 2 year traders and hedgers can be phasing into long positions, and/or covering long-term short positions, down to this major support.”

05-29-20 - “Natural Gas initially surged after fulfilling multi-year cycles that bottomed in 1Q ’20 - the latest phase of a 4-year low-low-low cycle.  An overall rally into Nov./Dec. ’20 is expected, with an intervening low likely in the first half of June.

1 - 2 year traders and hedgers could have phased into long positions, and/or covered long-term short positions, during 1Q ‘20 (down to major support near 1.600/NG) and can be holding these longs/hedges.”  FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

06-30-20 - “Natural Gas initially surged into May (to new multi-year highs) after fulfilling multi-year cycles that bottomed in 1Q ’20 - the latest phase of a 4-year low-low-low cycle.  It has since retraced 50% of that surge and is positioning for a new advance.  An overall rally into Nov./Dec. ’20 is expected.

1 - 2 year traders and hedgers could have phased into long positions, and/or covered long-term short positions, during 1Q ‘20 (down to major support near 1.600/NG) and can be holding these longs/hedges.”  FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

07-30-20 - “Outlook 2020/2021 - Cycle Synergy; The More Things Change...

The period between March 16 - 23, 2020 - when a powerful convergence of daily, weekly, monthly & multi-year cycles bottomed in multiple markets - and April/May 2021 (when corresponding cycles are projected to peak in a broader collection of markets) - has been forecast to witness an inflationary surge in stocks, Silver and many other markets.

That has been forecast, not surprisingly, to coincide with a 12 - 14 month decline in the US Dollar - a sell-off that was/is likely to resemble the 2017 drop.  It has a primary downside target of ~89.00/DX… If the Dollar is able to reach that level by Jan. 2021, it will perpetuate a decades-long pattern of Dollar declines during Republican administrations and advances during Democratic administrations - peaking in Jan. 2017 and declining into Dec. ‘20 or Jan. ‘21…

40YC of Inflation?

Getting back to the outlook for March ‘20 into May ‘21, three of the most significant forecasts have been powerfully validated in recent months.  They are:

-- New surge in stocks, after they fulfilled the Perfect Storm of Sell Signals triggered and described in late-Jan./early-Feb. ’20 and completed 2-Year & 40-Year Cycle declines on March 23, 2020.

That sell-off also fulfilled the ~11-Year Cycle of Stock Panic Cycles, ~11-Year Cycle of Global-Shaping Events and the 8-month & 16-month cycles that peaked in late-Jan. ’20 and projected sharp 1 - 3 month declines to follow.

Consistent with a majority of those factors, most stocks were forecast to set 6 - 12 month (or longer) lows by/on March 23 and then enter new advances that should ultimately carry them higher into April/May 2021 - the next phase of the 16-month cycle and another significant phase of the 40-Year Cycle.  Multi-month buy signals were triggered on March 18 - 23.

-- A major surge in Silver that was forecast to bottom on March 16 - 20, 2020 - along with an uncanny web of powerful cycle lows - and then enter a 12 - 14 month period where its gains were/are projected to substantially outpace the gains in Gold - even as all precious metals (and XAU) entered the culminating, often accelerated, phase(s) of a 5 - 6 year uptrend.  A multi-month buy signal was triggered/published.

(In mid-March, Gold bottomed near 1450/GC while Silver bottomed near 12.00 - a ratio of ~120/1.  This week, Gold spiked up near 2000/GC while Silver reached 26.00/SI - dramatically reducing that ratio to ~77/1 while validating the outlook for March ’20 - May ’21 to see proportionately greater gains in Silver as precious metals entered the most intense phases of their projected 2016 - 2021 advances.)

-- US Dollar cycles peaked in March 2020 and projected an overall decline into 1Q/2Q 2021 that could easily take it to new multi-year lows (lowest levels since at least late-2014).

Not only would that fulfill multiple monthly and yearly cycles, it would also complete a 50% retracement in time of the Dollar’s 2008 - 2016 advance (105/106 months up followed by 52/53 months down).

When the three of those are combined, they show the potential for an inflationary advance from late-March ’20 into May ’21.  Lower Dollar.  Rising metals (precious and industrial).  Rising stocks.

Add in massive government spending, to deal with a pandemic that is still out of control and the resulting economic debacle, and you have the fundamental factors for a declining Dollar and rising price inflation.  This does NOT mean we are returning to the late-1970’s.  The current environment is much different.

However, it does reinforce that this culminating period - of a 5 - 6 year uptrend in Gold, a 5-year (from early-2016) and 10 - 12-year uptrend in equities, and a 3 - 5 year corrective phase in the US Dollar - could/should see accelerated phases as most cycle crescendos do.  More on those outlooks to follow…

Natural Gas surged into May (to new multi-year highs) and then retraced 50% of that advance, setting the stage for a new rally.  That is taking hold but it needs a weekly close above 2.9000/NGZ to reinforce analysis for an overall advance into Nov./Dec. ’20.

1 - 2 year traders and hedgers could have phased into long positions, and/or covered long-term short positions, during 1Q ‘20 (down to major support near 1.600/NG) and can be holding these longs/hedges.”   FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

INSIIDE Track, August 2020

08-29-20 - “Outlook 2020/2021 - 40-Year Cycle of Inflation

There has been one primary, overriding expectation for the current 12 - 14 month period.  It has been discussed in respect to multiple markets and has just received some noteworthy (Fed) validation.  Before elaborating on that, let’s review a few key factors:

1 - The 12 - 14 month period being addressed was identified as beginning on March 16 - 23, 2020 - when a powerful convergence of daily, weekly, monthly & multi-year cycles bottomed in multiple markets like stocks and Silver - until April/May 2021.  That is when corresponding cycles are projected to peak in a broader collection of markets and culminate the period in focus.

2 - The primary expectation/projection for this period has been an inflationary surge in multiple commodities, precious/industrial metals, foodstuffs, and even equity markets.  It has been forecast to be a synergistic, though sometimes staggered rally.

3 - Coinciding with, and potentially causing, that was the forecast for a 12 - 14 month decline in the US Dollar - a sell-off that was/is likely to resemble the 2017 drop and reinforce the decades-long pattern of Dollar declines during Republican administrations and advances during Democratic administrations.

The US Dollar peaked in Jan. 2017 and could drop into Dec. ‘20 or Jan. ‘21 - a slow but overall decline that would encompass the entire administration.  Since this is often the driving force for inflationary moves, it is important to review the cycles governing the larger swings (1 - 2 years or more) in the Dollar…

In one single week, two diverse but sometimes corresponding measures of ‘inflation’ converged.  One signaled the onset of what could be a larger phase of commodity price inflation while the other could be timing the finale in a broad period of paper-asset inflation…

Inflationary Starting Pistol...

With so many metals then fulfilling major downside objectives, as well as multi-month & multi-year cycle lows, the buy signals generated in March 2020 set the stage for a significant uptick in price inflation that was forecast for March ‘20 into May ‘21.

The Dollar concurred, peaking on March 19 and entering what is likely to be a 12 - 14 month decline.  Stock Indexes reinforced that, bottoming on March 18 - 23 in sync with the 40-Year & 2-Year Cycles and triggering their own multi-month buy signal.

As is usually the case, cycles and technical analysis fired this ‘starting pistol’ WAY before fundamentals revealed anything remotely similar.  In most cases, a fulfilling fundamental factor will not materialize until the middle third of a move or trend.

So, if this trend was forecast to last from March ‘20 into May ‘21, the middle third of that ~14-month time period is roughly mid-Aug.- late-Dec. ’20.  And that brings us to the key event of the past week (from a financial perspective).

40YC of Competing Inflation

40 years ago, inflation was considered the ultimate evil in the financial markets as 1980 was experiencing the culmination of a 3 - 5 year and 5 - 10 year surge in commodity and precious metals’ prices - a parabolic move that was crippling the economy.

Paul Volcker set the Federal Reserve into overdrive to combat that inflation.

Fast-forward to the present when the concern is suddenly that there is not enough inflation.  So, Jerome Powell just announced a new Fed approach that would (paraphrased) help nurture moderate inflation.

Be Careful What You Wish For!

As is the case with so many cycles, the extremes (beginning and end of that cycle) often time opposing extremes - the beginning of one move and the end of another… or vice-versa.

In this case, 1980 marked the culmination of an incredible inflationary cycle… and ushered in a 40-Year Cycle of Inflationary Vigilance.

40 years later, 2020 marks the onset of what could be a new inflationary cycle - with the first phase unfolding from March ‘20 into April/May ‘21.

There is another irony at play here.  It should be watched closely over the next couple years.  The culmination of commodity inflation - peaking in 1980 - paved the way for a near 40-Year Cycle of Paper Asset Inflation with stocks and bonds beginning massive bull markets… in 1981 and 1982.

Could 2021 and 2022 provide contrasting action - showing that those bull markets have peaked?

Inflationary Scares?

A myriad of overlapping cycles have been forecasting price inflation - in diverse commodities and precious metals - between late-March ‘20 and May ‘21.

The following is a small sampling of the commodities forecast to experience sharp rallies in 2Q ‘20 - 2Q ‘21 - bottoming in a staggered manner and expected to subsequently top in similar fashion.

One of those was Lumber, which bottomed in 2009 and set a secondary low in 2015.  Leading into 2020, Lumber was projected to set another higher low in 2Q ’20 - ushering in a ‘3’ of ‘3’ of ‘3’ wave advance projected to take hold in May ’20 and last into 1Q ’21.

In order to validate that scenario, Lumber was forecast to set an initial peak above 440.0/LB in Feb. and then correct - setting the stage for a new bull run to take hold in May ’20…

Lumber followed that scenario pretty closely, spiking above 440.0 as it peaked in Feb. ‘20… and then plunging into early-April.  It vacillated near its lows in April, awaiting bullish cycles to arrive in May ‘20 - at which time Lumber embarked on its new bull run.  Little did anyone realize what kind of impact Covid-19 would have on lumber demand in May - Aug. ‘20…

Another bout of commodity price inflation was forecast for the grain markets with Soybeans forecast to see an initial surge into early-July and a larger overall surge into Sept. ‘20.  The price action of the coming weeks will have to clarify if Sept. ‘20 will time the completion of this surge… or just an interim peak.

Then there is another key market that was projected to set a multi-year bottom in 1Q ‘20 and undergo an initial surge into Nov./Dec. ‘20.

03/31/20 – “For the past year, much of INSIIDE Track’s focus has been on the extremely challenging time that was expected to begin in late-2019.  That outlook was based on a myriad of factors, including...

-- Energy-related (Crude projected to drop to new multi-year lows based on its monthly trend pattern while Natural Gas was projected to decline into 1Q ‘20 before a multi-year bottom was/is likely)…

Natural Gas has fulfilled ongoing analysis for a drop from 4Q ‘18 into  1Q ’20.  1Q ’20 is the latest phase of a 4-year low-low-low cycle with multi-year support near 1.6000 - the March ’16 bottom. 

A rally into June/July ’20 and ultimately into Nov./Dec. ’20 is expected.  1 - 2 year traders and hedgers can be phasing into long positions, and/or covering long-term short positions...”

Natural Gas set its lowest daily close on Feb. 28 and intraday low on March 9 - repeatedly testing 1.550 - 1.600/NG, where major support existed.  It initially surged into May ‘20 and then pulled back into early-July.  That ushered in the second phase of Natural Gas’ projected 2020 surge.

Most people associate Natural Gas demand with cold weather and the need for a widely-utilized heating fuel.  However, Natural Gas was projecting multiple surges for April - Nov./Dec. ‘20, revealing something more.  Ironically, it was the recent heat wave that spurred the latest demand for Natural Gas as power plants utilize it to keep up with the cooling demand.

When is the next inflationary wave likely to take hold?...

Natural Gas remains positive after triggering a combination of bullish multi-week signals on July 20 - 24 (including an outside-week/2 Close Reversal buy signal after testing its rising weekly 21 Low MAC).

Those signals projected a new rally that was forecast to last through August and ultimately into Nov. ’20 (in sync with the 2020 outlook for a major advance from a multi-year bottom in 1Q ’20 into Nov./Dec. ’20).

Intermediate cycles and wave comparisons project a multi-week peak on Aug. 31 - Sept. 4 with an initial target at 3.1500 - 3.2650/NGZ and a more extreme target near ~340.0/NGZ.

A peak in early-Sept. would also fulfill a ~4-month high (Jan. 6) - high (May 5) - high (Sept. 4/8) Cycle Progression.  That would likely usher in a few weeks of consolidation with a subsequent low ideally taking hold in late-Sept… and setting the stage for another surge into Nov./Dec. 2020,

1 - 2 year traders and hedgers could have phased into long positions, and/or covered long-term short positions, during 1Q ‘20 (down to major support near 1.600/NG) and can be holding these longs/hedges - ideally into Nov./Dec. ‘20.”  FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

INSIIDE Track, September 2020

09-30-20 - “Natural Gas remains on track for an overall advance from 1Q ‘20 into Nov./Dec. ’20.  It reached a range of targets in Sept. (3.2650 - 3.4000/NGZ) and then corrected - with intermediate support now at 3.000 - 3.050/NGZ.  Natural Gas was expected to set its next low in late-Sept, although that could stretch into the opening days of Oct.  As long as it does not give a weekly close below 3.000/NGZ, Natural Gas should quickly resume its advance in Oct.

1 - 2 year traders and hedgers could have phased into long positions, and/or covered long-term short positions, during 1Q ‘20 (down to major support near 1.600/NG) and can be holding these longs/hedges - ideally into Nov./Dec. ‘20.”  FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

10-30-20 - “Natural Gas remains on track for an overall advance from 1Q ‘20 into Nov./Dec. ’20.  It is resuming that uptrend and could surge to 3.600 - 3.700/NG in the coming weeks.

1 - 2 year traders and hedgers could have phased into long positions, and/or covered long-term short positions, during 1Q ‘20 (down to major support near 1.600/NG) and can be holding these longs/hedges - ideally into Nov./Dec. ‘20.”

11-30-20 - “Natural Gas entered a large-scale correction after fulfilling the 2020 outlook for a major advance from 1Q ‘20 into Nov./Dec. ’20.  It made it to its primary upside target (~3.400/NG) but could not stretch that to its extreme target near 3.700/NG.  Since peaking, Natural Gas has retraced 50% of its March - Nov. advance, setting the stage for a ‘2’ wave bottom…

1 - 2 year traders and hedgers could have phased into long positions, and/or covered long-term short positions, during 1Q ‘20 (down to major support near 1.600/NG) and can add or enter new longs near current levels.”  FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

01-04-21 - “Natural Gas retraced 50% of its initial advance, after attacking its primary upside target (~3.400/NG) and peaking during multi-month cycle highs in Nov.  On a continuous basis, it just tested its flattening monthly 21 High MAC - reinforcing that a secondary bottom is forming.  A new 3 - 6 month (or longer) advance is expected to begin now and unfold in 2021.

1 - 2 year traders and hedgers could have phased into long positions, and/or covered long-term short positions, during 1Q ‘20 (down to major support near 1.600/NG) and can be adding or entering new longs near current levels.”

01-29-21 - “Natural Gas retraced 50% of its initial advance, bottoming at 3 - 6 month support near 2.300/NG.  On a continuous basis, it is testing its flattening monthly 21 High MAC - reinforcing that a secondary bottom is forming, perceived to be the early stages of a major ‘III’ wave advance (with the ‘III’ - ‘V’ waves expected to last into 1Q ’22).  A new multi-month advance is expected to begin now...

1 - 2 year traders and hedgers could have phased into long positions, and/or covered long-term short positions, during 1Q ‘20 (down to major support near 1.600/NG) and can be adding or entering new longs near current levels.”  FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

02-27-21 - “Natural Gas surged to new highs and has since corrected after peaking in precise alignment with its weekly trend, weekly LHR, daily cycles, and the latest phase of a 16 - 18 week low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression.

It subsequently dropped to its early-Jan. peak (resistance turned into support) while fulfilling an 8-week high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression (Feb. 24 - 26) and could be setting an intermediate low.

On a broader basis, Natural Gas is fulfilling the early stages of an expected major ‘III’ wave advance (with the ‘III’ - ‘V’ waves expected to last into 1Q ’22)… If/when Natural Gas gives a weekly close above 3.400/NG, it would project an advance up to 4.300 - 4.500/NG…

1 - 2 year traders and hedgers could have phased into long positions, and/or covered long-term short positions, during 1Q ‘20 (down to major support near 1.600/NG) and could have added or entered new longs near 2.500 - 2.600/NG in Dec. ‘20.”  FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

09-02-21 - “Natural Gas remains on track for an overall advance into 1Q ‘22, stemming from major lows in early-2020.  After setting an initial peak in early-Aug. ’21, Natural Gas pulled back to intermediate support (~3.900/NGZ) and held - projecting a new advance that could easily reach 5.000/NGZ in the near term.

Multi-year traders & hedgers could have phased into long positions during 1Q ‘20 (down to ~1.600/NG) and added or entered new longs in Dec ’20 near 2.500 - 2.600/NG.  Hold these into 1Q ’22.”

10-29-21 - “Natural Gas remains on track for an overall advance into 1Q ‘22, stemming from major lows in early-2020.  After setting an initial peak in early-Aug. ’21, Natural Gas pulled back to intermediate support (~3.900/NGZ) and held - projecting a new advance that saw it surge to weekly & monthly extremes (~6.400 - 6.600/NG) in early-Oct.

That was expected to usher in a corrective period that is likely to stretch into mid-Nov and should prompt a pullback to at least 4.900, potentially 4.500 and possibly 4.000/NG before a secondary low is set.

Multi-year traders & hedgers could have phased into long positions during 1Q ‘20 (down to ~1.600/NG) and added or entered new longs in Dec ’20 near 2.500 - 2.600/NG.  Hold these into 1Q ’22.”  FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

01-05-22 - “As long as it does not give a weekly & monthly close below 3.390/NG, Natural Gas is still perceived to be in a wave ’4’ correction before a final wave ’5’ advance unfolds.  This initial bull market was forecast to last from 1Q ’20 into 1Q ’22, at the very least.  Natural Gas has the potential, however, to extend that into 4Q ’22 if support holds and it resumes its uptrend.

Multi-year traders & hedgers could have phased into long positions during 1Q ‘20 (down to ~1.600/NG) and added or entered new longs in Dec ’20 near 2.500 - 2.600/NG.  Hold these until a monthly close below 3.390/NGH.”  FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

01-31-22 - “Natural Gas bottomed at downside extremes at ~3.390 - 3.540/NG (monthly 21 High MAC and multi-year ‘resistance turned into support’) and reversed higher, validating expectations for a wave ‘4’ low and the onset of a final wave ‘5’ advance.

This initial bull market was forecast to last from 1Q ’20 into 1Q ’22, at the very least, but Natural Gas has the potential to extend that into 4Q ’22.

Multi-year traders & hedgers could have phased into long positions during 1Q ‘20 (down to ~1.600/NG) and added or entered new longs in Dec ’20 near 2.500 - 2.600/NG.  Hold these until a monthly close below 3.390/NGH.” FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

02-28-22 - “Natural Gas surged to new contract highs after fulfilling expectations for a wave ‘4’ low (Dec ’21) and the onset of a final wave ‘5’ advance.  Natural Gas has the potential to extend this bull market into 4Q ’22…

Multi-year traders & hedgers could have phased into long positions during 1Q ‘20 (down to ~1.600/NG) and added or entered new longs in Dec ’20 near 2.500 - 2.600/NG.  Hold these until a weekly close below 3.900/NGM.”  FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

03-31-22 - “Natural Gas surged to new highs after fulfilling expectations for a wave ‘4’ low (Dec ’21) and the onset of a final wave ‘5’ advance.  Natural Gas has the potential to extend this bull market into 4Q ’22 but a multi-month (penultimate) peak could soon take hold...

Multi-year traders & hedgers could have entered long positions during 1Q ‘20 (down to ~1.600/NG) and added longs in Dec ’20 near 2.500 - 2.600/NG.  Hold these until a weekly close below 5.200/NGM.”  FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

04-29-22 - “Natural Gas has continued to surge to new highs after fulfilling expectations for a wave ‘4’ low (Dec ’21) and the onset of a wave ‘5’ advance… An initial high took hold in April but the daily trend and 21 High MAC are still showing strength… so another rally is possible.

Multi-year traders & hedgers could have entered long positions during 1Q ‘20 (down to ~1.600/NG) and added longs in Dec ’20 near 2.500 - 2.600/NG.  Hold these until a daily close below 6.450/NGM.”  FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

05-27-22 - “Natural Gas has continued to surge to new highs after fulfilling expectations for a wave ‘4’ low (Dec ’21) and the onset of a wave ‘5’ advance… Multi-year traders & hedgers could have entered long positions in 1Q ‘20 (down to ~1.600/NG) and added longs in Dec ’20 near 2.500 - 2.600/NG.  Hold these until a daily close below 7.600/NGU.”  FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

06-30-22 - “Natural Gas reached and held key upside objectives at 9.500/NG and projected a drop to at least 6.500 and potentially 5.500/NG.  It has fulfilled both and could see some consolidation take hold.  Multi-year traders & hedgers could have entered long positions in 1Q ‘20 (~1.600 - 2.000/NG) and added longs in Dec ’20 (~2.500 - 2.600/NG) and finally exited these positions in mid-June.”  FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

07-29-22 - “Natural Gas surged and retested its key upside objectives at 9.500/NG after fulfilling projections for a sharp drop to support at 5.500/NG.  More volatile consolidation is likely.  Multi-year traders & hedgers could have entered long positions in 1Q ‘20 (~1.600 - 2.000/NG) and added longs in Dec ’20 (~2.500 - 2.600/NG) and finally exited these positions in mid-June ‘22.”  FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

10-31-22 - Natural Gas has sold off sharply after fulfilling multi-month & multi-year cycles while surging for over two years into 3Q ’22 and attacking major upside price targets while completing a textbook 5-wave advance from its mid-2020 bottom.

(That peak coincided with the culmination of the 2-year buy signal that had investors entering longs in early-2020, adding to them in early-2021, and carrying them through the majority of that 2-year advance and finally exiting in mid-June ’22.)

By setting a peak in 2022, Natural Gas fulfilled  an ~8.25-year high (4Q ‘97) - high (4Q ’05) - high (1Q ’14) - high (2Q ’22; which was not closed above) and an ~11-month high (Nov ’19) - high (Oct ’20) - high (Sept ’21) - (high; Aug 2022) Cycle Progression.

That ~11-month Cycle Progression was reinforced by an over-arching 22 - 23 month high (Dec ’16) - high (Nov ‘18) - high (Oct ‘20) - (high; Aug/Sept 2022) Cycle Progression.

Ultimately, this could drive the price of Natural Gas back down to ~3.500/NG - the 4th wave of lesser degree support (Dec ‘21 low before wave ‘V’ advance into Aug ‘22) & prior 4Q ‘20 high”