Late-October Sell-off Fulfilled; Warning Signs Triggered; Watch Late-Nov ’24!

11-05-24 – Stock Indices fulfilled the outlook for a drop into October 31st after initially peaking on October 18th, when a myriad of daily, weekly & monthly cycles – as well as the latest phase of the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Market Peaks – all projected a decisive peak in the DJIA.

The S+P also peaked on Oct 17/18th, in line with similar cycles.

The Oct 18th high perpetuated a ~90-degree cycle that has been in force since mid-Oct 2022 – fulfilling a related ~3-month/~13-week low – low (Jan 17) – low (Apr 17) – high (July 17/18, ’24) – (high/Oct 17/18, 2024) Cycle Progression while fulfilling a 37-day low (Aug 5) – low (Sept 11) – (high; October 18, 2024) Cycle Progression…

The DJIA also completed an Intra-Month Inverted V Reversal lower (low at beginning of month, high at mid-month, lower low at month-end) on October 31st.

It would now take daily closes below 41,647/DJIA, 5724/ESZ & 20,013/NQZ to turn the respective intra-month trends down and signal another decline.  Until that occurs, a 1 – 2 week correction has unfolded but has not yet been elevated to a higher magnitude decline.

The action in the DJIA & NQ-100 needs to be contrasted with cycle expectations in other indexes – most notably the S+P Midcap 400 and the DJ Transportation Average…

Both of those indexes argue for another round of (likely divergent) highs in the second half of November ‘24… That has been the outlook for a couple months and was elaborated in the October 9, 2024 Weekly Re-Lay Alert (and corresponding IT Updates):

[10-09-24 -] “Similar to what occurred in June/July 2024, this could be showing that another push into smaller & mid-sized stocks is on the horizon.  Interestingly, the S+P Midcap has its greatest synergy of monthly & weekly cycles converging in late-November ’24.

If a multi-month high were set at that time, it would fulfill the following cycles & timing indicators:

· ~13-month/~56-week low-low-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.

· ~8-month/34 – 35-week high (late-March ’22) – high (late-Nov ’22) – high (late-July ’23) – high (late-March ’24) – (high; late-Nov 2024) Cycle Progression.

· ~4-month/~17 – 18-week high-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.

· ~2-month/~8 – 9-week high-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.

· ~15-week low-low-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.

· ~5-week low-low-low-high*- (high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression…  *if the S+P Midcap rallies into October 14 – 18th.

· Back-to-back-to-back-to-back ~13-month rallies (Dec ’18 – Jan ’20, Mar ’20 – Apr ’21, June ’22 – July ’23, Oct ’23 – November 2024).

So it is possible, if it emerges as expected, that a late-October peak would only be a penultimate one… with the ultimate IDX peak waiting until late-Nov ’24.

The S+P Midcap 400 remains in a bullish setup after setting multiple peaks at 3120 – 3140/IDX.  The latest spurred a brief pullback that twice neutralized (but did not turn down) the daily uptrend while setting successive lows at the rising daily 21 High MAC and reversing higher repeatedly (without turning the intra-month trend down).

All those factors are likely to spur a breakout higher that could see a quick, accelerated rally into October 17 – 21st.. On a 1 – 2 month basis, the NQ-100 has wave objectives converging near the July ’24 peak – around 21,200/NQZ.”

Stock Indexes did rally into October 17/18th, when many of them set multi-week peaks.  A quick, sharp sell-off into October 31st was projected.  With that being fulfilled, it turns focus to a trio of factors coming into play in November:

• Intra-month trends
• Late-November cycle highs
• Intervening (~November 8th) cycles

The intra-month trends will not turn down until daily closes below the November 1st – 5th lows (first three trading days of new month).  Conversely, they will not turn up until daily closes above the November 1st – 5th highs.  Tomorrow’s action is likely to clarify that.

The late-November ’24 cycle highs – cited in that October 9th analysis and reiterated since then – are corroborated by similar cycles in the DJTA.  That includes:

• ~8-month high-high-high-(high; November ’24) Cycle Progression
• ~12.5-month* low-low-low-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression
• [More precise *56-week low-low-(high; November 18 – 25, ’24) Cycle Progression]
• 17 – 18-week high-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression
• ~5-week low-low-high-(high; November 18 – 25, ’24) Cycle Progression**

**The DJIA has a similar ~5-week/~37-day low-low-high-(high; Nov 18 – 25, ’24) Cycle Progression coming into play at that time with November 22/25th representing the daily version of that cycle… a normal Cycle Progression would project a high (higher or lower) at that time.”   — November 5, 2024 INSIIDE Track Update

Casting Shadows Ahead

Stocks fulfilled analysis for a quick, sharp sell-off into late-October/early-November – casting shadows ahead to what could follow late-November cycle highs.  The DJIA spiked lower into November 4th – retesting intermediate support and fulfilling daily cycles while remaining in a weekly uptrend.

The S+P 500 retested its October low (5724/ESZ) and late-August/early-September highs (‘resistance turned into support’ at 5725 – 5730/ESZ) and is holding… in the week after testing and holding its weekly HLS (extreme downside target).

All three primary indexes remain in weekly uptrends with the NQ-100 also maintaining its daily uptrend while pulling back to support.  All of this reinforces the focus on late-November ’24 for the next – and potential final (divergent?) high in the equity markets.

Golden Cycles

At the same time, Gold & Silver are fulfilling ongoing forecasts for significant peaks to take hold in late-October and trigger sharp reactions lower.  That comes at the same time Bitcoin is fulfilling the outlook for a surge from early-October into early-November.

What does all this mean for Post-Election Markets? www.insiidetracktrading.com

Specific analysis, targets, cycles & projections will continue to be published in Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications.

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