17-Year Cycle & Stock Market Peaks VII
December 30, 2024 INSIIDE Track Stock Index Update:
Stocks Bouncing After December Sell-off; Prep for January 6th Shift!
12-30-24 – “Stock Indices have consolidated after their initial plunge into Dec 19th that fulfilled the first phase of analysis following the Nov 25th peaks (in IDX, RUT, DJTA). A second decline is expected in January and should ultimately result in a drop into February/March ‘25.
That decline could/should begin by January 6/7th, at the latest.
To recap… Equities fulfilled the potential for sharp multi-week declines into December 19/20th with the DJIA plunging to within a few hundred points of its initial downside target as the S+P Midcap 400 – the focus of this analysis – plunged right to its range-trading support and 3 – 4 week downside target at 3100 – 3125/IDX. That came after it peaked precisely at its upside range-trading target (~3400/IDX).
Its initial low – likely just a stopping point on the way to lower levels – also fulfilled a type of ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ support where the low before the previous (culminating) advance had taken hold in late-October.
Ideally, it will spike a little higher (~3200/IDX) before declining again (watch January 3/6th for that spike high, but only in certain indexes).
The DJTA, which also peaked right at its upside range target (~17,600), plummeted right back to its early-October low and range-trading support (~15,600) while turning its weekly trend down… the first to do so. That is a lagging/confirming indicator, usually triggered near an initial low.
(The S+P Midcap needs a weekly close below 3088/IDX to do the same.) It also closed below its weekly 21 Low MAC. The Transports have vacillated near that pivotal support ever since.
The Russell 2000, another index that peaked in lockstep with its upside range target (~2460/QR), plunged to its early-October low – retracing all of the pre- & post-election gains. All the indexes attacked & spiked below weekly HLS levels (extreme downside targets) at that time – reinforcing projections for a blow-off spike low and reversal higher on December 19/20th.
Those lows were/are expected to hold for several weeks.
Stock indexes rebounded into Dec 26/27th – fulfilling short-term expectations and daily trend patterns. That triggered a quick, sharp pullback with some indexes (S+P 500 & NQ-100) indicating that could/should be their secondary highs.
In others (DJTA, Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400), a second rebound is possible – with January 3rd/6th providing the likely time for the next daily cycle high (above the Dec 26/27th highs in those indexes).
On a broader basis, stocks continue to validate the late-November ’24 peaks – highs that fulfilled a myriad of daily, weekly, monthly AND multi-year cycles and ushered in a dangerous 2 – 4-week (into Dec 19/20) AND 2 – 4-month (into mid-Feb – mid-March ’25) period.
The DJTA, S+P Midcap 400 & Russell 2000 are setting up some intriguing Cycle Progressions that could pinpoint the likely times for future lows (and sharp sell-offs leading into them). If secondary highs are set on January 3rd/6th, it would reinforce those cycles… that will be discussed in impending publications.” — December 30, 2024 INSIIDE Track Stock Index Update
January 6th Pivot
All signs (technical, cyclical & fundamental) are pointing to January 6th as the completion of this rebound cycle and the onset of a new – and potentially more damaging – decline in equities.
The DJIA, S+P 500 & NQ-100 are showing that December 26/27th completed their rebounds while the DJTA, S+P Midcap 400 & Russell 2000 are likely to wait until January 3/6th to peak and reverse lower.
January 6, 2025 ushers in a second multi-week ‘Danger Period’ for stocks that could be linked to the continued decline in Bonds & Notes (and corresponding rally in interest rates).
The DJTA, S+P Midcap 400 & Russell 2000 have specific rebound price targets where they should peak by/on January 6th and then enter a very precarious period, stretching into [see publications for specifics].
The December plunge was/is forecast to ‘cast shadows ahead’ to two key time frames in 1Q 2025… the first begins on January 6, 2025.
See previous Linkedin articles for corresponding analysis:
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/17-year-cycle-three-cs-trading-insiide-track-trading-6fvmc
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/bellwether-index-insiide-track-trading-glmdc
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/17-year-cycle-stocks-4q-2024-octobernovember-finale-zbvac
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/17-year-cycle-november-2024-cycles-stock-market-lwg3c
Specific analysis, targets, cycles & projections will continue to be published in Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications.
TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
For details and related articles, go to www.insiidetracktrading.com.